653
FXUS62 KCAE 090227
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1027 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool, dry air mass will spread into the region this week. A
reinforcing cold front late this week will bring below normal
temperatures for Friday with seasonable weather into the
weekend. Milton will remain well of the FA but may still result
in breezy conditions across the region Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures are expected to fall to below normal by late week
with cool nighttime temperatures. Dry weather and near or below
normal temperatures are favored through the long term.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

- None

A cooler and drier air mass has moved into the forecast area
behind a cold front. Skies are generally clear this evening
across the forecast area at the moment as low clouds from
earlier have dissipated. Cirrus clouds associated with the
outer edge of Hurricane Milton will start spreading into the
forecast area tonight, increasing in coverage as the night goes
on, especially I-20 and points south and east. The clouds will
play a role in how cool temperatures get by daybreak with the
lowest values expected across the northern Midlands where lows
are forecast to be in the lower 50s. Temperatures should be in
the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Wind gusts around 30 mph possible Thursday afternoon

Surface high pressure will shift into the Northeast during the
short term, leading to ridging down the Mid-Atlantic and into
the forecast area. This will promote dry, NE flow into central
SC and the CSRA. Mean PWAT values from global ensembles
generally decrease from 0.75 inches early Wednesday morning to
0.5 inches by late Thursday. This will support a dry forecast
over the area. However as moisture is pulled in from the
Atlantic on Thursday, there`s a small chance that a shower could
push into the extreme eastern FA given the deeper moisture to
the east.

Hurricane Milton will stay well to the south of the forecast
area through the forecast period. However the tightening
pressure gradient from the surface high to our north and Milton
to our south, will promote cool, breezy conditions over the
forecast area. Highs on Thursday should be in the low to mid
70s. Wind gusts will generally range from 20 to 30 mph on
Thursday afternoon with some potential for gusts to 35 mph.
Typically, these conditions would only be concerning for
recreation over area lakes. However, given the number of trees
in the CSRA and western Midlands that are damaged or hung up on
other trees/objects it`s possible that those gusts could
dislodge additional trees and exacerbate the power outages or
travel issues over this area. However this is uncertain since
there is limited historical precedent to turn to in terms of the
damage over this area. A Lake Wind Advisory or potentially an
impacts-based Wind Advisory may be needed for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-Dry weather and near or below normal temperatures expected

Global model ensembles show little variance with a trough
digging into the eastern CONUS this weekend and into early next
week. Mean 500 mb heights from the GEFS are one to two standard
deviations below climatological normals. This should lead to a
series of dry cold fronts moving into the Southeast through the
long term. With PWAT values below the climatological 10th
percentile for this time of year, rainfall is very unlikely.
Temperatures are also expected to be near or below normal
throughout the long term. Lows on Friday and/or Saturday
mornings could be the coolest temps we`ve seen since June first.
Radiational cooling conditions appear to be stronger on Friday
night as the pressure gradient relaxes. This pattern tends to
give us temperatures near the lower end of the model guidance
spectrum.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period.

High pressure continues to build into the region with
northeasterly winds across the region. Diurnal cloud cover has
dissipated and expect mostly clear skies through the night.
Northeasterly winds continue through the night but should weaken
to around 5 knots or so and a 20 knots low level should help
limit the fog threat, although AGS could see some of its
typical morning shallow ground-river fog overnight and near
sunrise.

Winds pick back up from the northeast around 6 to 8 knots by mid
morning and some higher clouds may start moving over the region
from the south as Hurricane Milton moves toward the Florida
coast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through the end of the week outside of some breezy
winds on Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$