079
FXUS62 KCAE 170036
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
836 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging will be in control of our weather through
Saturday, leading to a prolonged dry period with steadily
warming temperatures. Rain chances increase early next week as
an upper trough approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- None

High pressure has settled over the Carolinas leading to light
winds and clear skies. With a dry air mass and near ideal
radiational cooling conditions we expect overnight lows to be
several degrees below normal with values in the low to mid 40s.
Forecast lows are below blended guidance which is typically too
warm during strong radiational cooling nights.

It`s possible that there will river valley fog around daybreak
in the area but confidence is too low to include in the
forecast at the moment.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Upper ridging in control of our weather through the short term
  as high pressure moves offshore.
- A dry warm front lifts through the region on Thursday with
  above normal temperatures expected on Friday.

Upper ridge axis centered over the Great Plains at the start of
the period builds eastward Thursday through Friday night. By the
end of the short term period, the ridge axis will be across the
southeast stretching from the FL Panhandle NE into the
Carolina. At the surface, high pressure to our north shifts
east and should be anchored near Bermuda by daybreak Saturday.
The period begins with clear skies followed by increasing mid to
high level cloudiness as a warm front lifts through the region
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Northeast winds at the
start of the day will shift southeast and eventually south in
response to the lifting warm front and high pressure shifting
east. Southerly flow then continues into Friday. This will have
an impact on temperatures as they will gradually climb each day.
Temperatures in the 70s across the region on Thursday will rise
into the with forecast highs on Thursday in to 70s warming to
lower to middle 80s by Friday afternoon. Temperatures will
remain above normal through the weekend. Overnight temperatures
will also be above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Seasonably Hot and Dry conditions this weekend.
- Chance of showers and thunderstorms early next week.

Upper ridge remains in control of our weather through Saturday
with closed H5 heights over the southeast/Fl on Saturday. Some
differences in speed of next system affecting the region by
Sunday into early next week with the deepening and gradually
moving eastward and ridging weakening and slipping eastward.
However, expect much above normal temperatures are expected
this weekend, with Saturday likely being the hottest of the two
weekend days. There should be more clouds around on Sunday as
the next storm system approaches from the west, but it appears
that rain chances will hold off until at least Monday. As
mentioned, model guidance diverges regarding the timing of the
next storm, but showers and thunderstorms will be possible to
close out the extended period. Hot and dry conditions this
weekend with temperatures moderating closer to normal into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period.

Mostly clear skies are seen this evening with near 5 kt winds out of
the west to west-northwest that likely become light and variable
overnight to calm in some locations. Some cirrus are entering the
upstate and thus periods of FEW high clouds will be possible into
the morning hours. While ground fog at AGS/OGB cannot fully be ruled
out, the very dry airmass in place looks to limit these odds (under
20%) and thus I will continue to leave mention of this out of the
TAF at this time. The rest of the TAF period sees light northeast to
east winds Thursday morning that become more southeasterly into the
evening, but staying light. Model guidance and forecast soundings
show some upper level moistening through the day tomorrow and thus
FEW to SCT high clouds cannot be ruled out, mainly during the
evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Not much change in the extended with
limited chances for restrictions. Some patchy fog maybe possible
into Friday morning and Saturday morning as moisture starts to
slowly increase but confidence in this is low at the moment.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$