359 FXUS61 KBOX 091124 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 724 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Considerable cloudiness and below normal temperatures are on tap for today, but dry weather dominates other than a passing spot shower or two. An upper level disturbance will bring showers and embedded thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall on Tuesday. Dry and warmer weather follows for Wednesday and especially Thursday...but it looks to turn cooler again next weekend with perhaps a period of unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages... * Considerable clouds today but with just a spot shower or two * Rather cool today...Highs in the 60s to near 70 mildest CT Valley Details... Today... Another piece of upper level shortwave energy will cross the region today. Forcing/deeper moisture is rather limited and high pressure over the Maritimes will feed some low level dry air into the region as well. So while we expect an abundance of clouds the vast majority of the day will feature dry weather...other than the risk for a spot shower two. The abundance of clouds with onshore flow will result in a rather cool day for June standards. Highs today will be in the 60s to near 70 with the mildest of those readings in the CT River Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Key Messages... * Clouds and fog tonight with just a few spot showers * Showers & embedded t-storms with locally heavy rainfall Tue Details... Tonight... High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to result in rather cloudy skies tonight...but with nothing more than a few spot showers. Areas of fog area also expected with the moist onshore flow and cooling boundary layer. Low temps tonight will mainly be between 55 and 60. Tuesday... A stronger piece of shortwave energy will approach from the west Tue. This will induce a modest southwest LLJ that will intersect a frontal boundary at the surface. Deeper moisture will advect into the region as well with Pwats increasing to between 1.50 and 2 inches. Guidance also indicates MUCapes of 400-800 J/KG which will combined with the forcing/deeper moisture. The result will be periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms with pockets of heavy rainfall. Brief poor drainage street flooding is possible...but we are not expecting any significant flooding issues or severe weather with mainly elevated instability. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 60s to the middle 70s...but it will be a bit more humid than today as low level moisture returns. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry Wed through at least Thu, then increasing chances for rain Friday into the weekend, especially Saturday. * Heat ramps up Wed/Thu, then cooling down into the weekend. Mid-level ridging and a surface high building over the Appalachian region will keep conditions sunny and dry. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s thanks to warm advection and dry, downsloping west winds. Flow becomes more zonal Friday, and rain chances will increase going into what could be another wet weekend as another coastal low may be in the vicinity. It`s still too soon to write another Saturday off as a washout, but current NBM probabilites for measurable rain are around 40-50% for RI and eastern MA and 60-70% for northern CT and western MA. This weekend`s temperatures will cool to the upper 60s to low 70s as easterly flow once again moves into the area. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today and tonight...Moderate confidence. Onshore flow will result in MVFR-IFR conditions overspreading much of the region this morning and persisting through tonight. Some localized LIFR conditions possible especially tonight along with areas of fog. The lower conditions will tend to be found towards the Cape and Islands. Other than a few spot showers...dry weather will dominate. E winds 5 to 10 knots. Tuesday...Moderate confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions will persist and we also expect periods of showers and embedded t-storms with locally heavy rainfall possible. Light E winds becoming SE. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and Tuesday...High Confidence. High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes today will shift east of that region by Tuesday. This will continue result in easterly winds but gradient will remain weak enough to keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds through the period. The main issue for mariners will be areas of fog...which may be locally dense at times especially overnight into Tuesday morning. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/McMinn NEAR TERM...Frank SHORT TERM...Frank LONG TERM...McMinn AVIATION...Frank/McMinn MARINE...Frank/McMinn