814 FXUS61 KCTP 130635 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 235 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Humid with periods of showers and locally heavy thunderstorm downpours Wednesday; only day of appreciable rain this week * Dry spell returns with above normal late summer heat and little to no rainfall Thursday into early next week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Radar trends show brief pop-up thundershowers initiating on the ridgetops before quickly dissipating as they drift off the high terrain. Lake breeze convection has been the most persistent, but has largely avoided the western part of Warren County. Max POPs around 20-30% late this afternoon into early evening are over the far NW mtns and near the highest terrain over the central PA ridges. Diurnal/terrain based cu will fade with the loss of heating through the evening. Mainly clear to partly cloudy tonight with a general increase in cloud cover into early Wednesday morning. We added some patchy fog again overnight especially in the central and eastern valleys with lgt/VRB wind, high dewpoints and muggy lows in the low 60s to low 70s. Can`t rule out some showers reaching the western periphery of the CWA by 12Z/8AM Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A broad axis of above average PW values between 1.5-2 inches (1.5 to 2+ standard deviations above the mean) will stretch along and ahead of the primary surface front moving slowly east/southeastward from the Lower Lakes/OH Valley region. There is general agreement in the models for the potential for widespread scattered convection in this high PW axis, with areal average moderate totals depicted and likelihood of locally heavy totals between 1 to 2+ inches based on HREF PMM/LPMM. Confidence is low with respect to where the heavier, more concentrated convection may be. At this time, it appears the best locally heavy rain signal is east/southeast of the higher terrain where models show the best CAPE/PWAT overlap. While there will be some heavy rain rates and spot QPF amounts in the 1-2+ inch range, the recent dry spell (essentially 0.00 pcpn) over the past 2 weeks has increased 1-3hr FFG to near max levels. This will certainly be limiting factor concerning short duration flash flood risk. Showers appear to linger into Wednesday night with a decreasing trend in coverage and intensity expected after sunset. Max/min temps in the 80-90/60-70F range will make for another hot/humid day and muggy night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lingering shower activity should be confined to the southern half of CPA on Thursday, while the northern tier begins to dry out nicely. Lowering humidity on Friday will bring some minor temporary relief, but overall there is no end to the run of hot/above normal temperatures through mid August. Another dry spell looks probable into the weekend. There is going to be an increase in rainfall potential Sunday into early next week as a cold front sinks southward from the Great Lakes. Depending how far south the front can reach, some seasonably cooler air may return by this time next week/Aug. 19-20th. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid and high clouds will continue to increase from west to east this morning as a result of the deep, moist southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front. Look for generally VFR with some limited MVFR vsbys across the cat areas of MVFR. Winds will remain relatively light from the SE throgh SW. Some valley fog is possible through about 12Z today, and a tempo group has been included to highlight this at sites were confidence in fog formation is highest. During the daylight hours today, we`ll see building clouds throughout the morning, then scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as the primary axis of deep-layer moisture shifts east across the region ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Forcing for these storms will mainly be ahead of slow moving front, which makes predictability for the timing of these storms tricky. Most sites will likely see a shower overhead at some point today, but due to the cellular based storm mode, timing the occurrence at any one location is difficult. Will continue to employ prob30 groups to highlight the window where thunderstorms are possible. Outlook... Thu...Lingering showers/and a few PM storms possible across the southern airspace. Fri...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR. Sat...Mainly VFR. Sun...Mainly VFR, but chance of a shower or storm north late. Mon...Chance of a shower early, then clearing. && .CLIMATE... It`s been a very dry period over the last 2 weeks or so. Here are the precipitation totals and rankings for the first 11 days of August (month to date): MDT: T (2nd driest); last measurable rain 7/31 IPT: 0.00" (driest); last measurable rain 7/30 AOO: 0.01" (2nd driest); last measurable rain 8/6 BFD: 0.09" (T5th driest); last measurable rain 8/6 STC: T (T2nd driest); last measurable rain 7/28 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Lambert/Bowen CLIMATE...Steinbugl