713 FXUS61 KCTP 162329 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 729 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... *Decreasing wind and clearing tonight with areas of frost early Thursday morning *Mostly sunny and milder with low humidity and no precipitation Thursday *Warming trend continues into Easter weekend with a passing shower on Friday and a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Low level instability associated with an exiting upper trough continues to produce stratocu across the northern part of the forecast area at 23Z. However, expect clearing to take place up there, as the trough lifts out tonight. Clear skies and diminishing wind will set the stage for areas of frost to develop late tonight. Low temps in the 25-35F range are 5-10 degrees below normal for mid April. We activated the growing season early for the 4/21 zones based on Growing Degree Day (GDD) calculations; therefore we expanded the frost advisory to include more of the lower ridge/valley region. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... After a chilly start, expect a sunny and milder Thursday with max temps in the 50-60F range rising 5 to as much as 20 degrees warmer vs. Wednesday (largest day over day or 24hr delatmaxTs will be in the NW mtns). We were keen to cut dewpoints tomorrow afternoon based on fcst soundings showing favorable dry wedge and weak inversion at the top of the boundary layer/mixing height. High pressure centered over the CPA Thursday morning will migrate off the southern Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night. An increasingly milder south to southwest flow will develop Friday into Saturday as a warm front lifts north of the region. Can`t rule out a passing rain shower on Friday especially in the northern tier. Very mild temps are fcst to start Easter weekend with max temps 65-80F or 10 to 20 degrees above the historical average. Models show a cold front impinging on the warm and increasingly moist/unstable warm sector airmass on Saturday which could trigger a few strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. The SPC Day 4 SLGT risk (15% prob severe) reaches the southwest portion of the CWA and have added risk of severe T+ storms to the HWO and wx grids. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Most guidance suggests that much of Central PA will be dry on Wednesday as an upper level ridge moves overhead and surface high pressure passes to our north. A cold front will stall near or just south of the Mason-Dixon Line on Sunday potentially keeping the chance for a few showers around over the western half of the region. Temperatures will cool down closer to normal behind this front with highs through the middle of the week ranging from the 50s and 60s across the north to the 60s and 70s for the south. Ensembles continue to suggest that the best chance for rain in the period will come from Monday into Tuesday as a shortwave and its associated surface low track just to our west. Rainfall does not look too heavy, with ensemble mean QPF generally less than 0.25 inches. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... For the 00Z TAF package, looking at mainly clearing skies with winds being on the decrease overnight. Main problem will be low CIGS at BFD, where I am holding onto the lower CIGS there a bit longer than earlier fcst. Looking at a dry day on Thursday, as high pressure builds over the area. A southwest flow of warmer and more humid air in store for the area on Friday. There could be a shower across the north and west later in the day. Other than maybe a shower at BFD, most of the area should remain dry on Friday. Outlook... Fri...Mainly VFR with restrictions possible late as showers and thunderstorms develop northwest of UNV. Sat...Widespread showers and thunderstorms with restrictions as a cold front moves through. Sun...A few showers possible, mainly late. Mon...Scattered showers. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ026>028- 035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Bauco AVIATION...Martin