924 FXUS61 KBGM 101052 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 652 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rain and a few embedded thunderstorms will exit east of the area by mid to late morning. Expect partly sunny skies with just a few pop up showers or isolated thunderstorms heading into this afternoon. High pressure moves in, bringing dry and seasonable weather tonight into Wednesday. A more unsettled weather pattern settles in for late week and especially this weekend with on and off shower chances returning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 650 AM Update Near term forecast remains on track, with only minor adjustments to PoPs and PoTThunder for this afternoon. Another round of rain still looks to track north across the eastern half of the forecast area through mid to late morning, before finally exiting east of the Catskills and Poconos around midday. 425 AM Update Flood watch was cancelled for the entire area as rainfall rates continue to decrease and the lack of any substantial remain instability should allow this trend to continue. A period of moderate rain still looks to develop with up to another 0.75 inches of rainfall possible by 10 AM from around Binghamton south and east...with less than 0.25 inches expected NW of Binghamton. This should not be enough additional rainfall to cause any widespread or significant hydro issues. Forecast PoP and sky grids were touched up based on the latest hi-res guidance. 2 AM Update A deep stream of moisture continues to advect south to north across the eastern half of the CWA early this morning, out ahead of the main upper level low centered over the eastern UP of Michigan at this time. Regional MRMS radar loop, and local KBGM radar loop shows and area of moderate rain bi-secting the forecast area with embedded smaller clusters of some heavy rain as well. The heaviest rainfall rates are mainly just south of the forecast area, across south-central/SE PA...but there is potential for some of this heavier rainfall to move north into portions of NE PA and perhaps the NY S. Tier or Catskills this morning. This will be monitored very closely, as 1 hour Flash Flood guidance is around 1 to 1.2" or less in these areas. Latest CAMS, such as the 05z HRRR show the area of rain and embedded t`storms drifting east, mainly across the Catskills and Poconos by daybreak...however the front, and much drier mid level air mass (evident on the 6.95um GOES East WV loop) will linger back west, so an additional round light to moderate rain will redevelop and move north through the area again through the mid-morning hours. By around 930 AM, current guidance suggests the steady rain will be confined to locations along and east of I-81...with conditions quickly drying out west of here, and skies even clear for sunshine by 10AM for Penn Yan, Bath, Elmira, Ithaca and Auburn. The steady rain should move east, out of the Catskills and Poconos by 11am to Noon...with skies clearing and becoming mostly sunny across most of CNY and NE by midday or early afternoon. A final line of isolated to scattered showers and t`storms develops along the last front this afternoon. These slowly move off to the east-south east this afternoon and early evening. As mentioned above, coverage of these look to be isolated to scattered at best and there will be plenty of dry time and sunshine this afternoon across the region. High temperatures are on track to reach well into the 70s over the area, with even a few valley locations around 80. Quiet weather settles in for tonight and Wednesday with weak surface ridging and a drier air mass in place. Light west- southwest winds under 10 mph are expected. Skies are forecast to be mainly sunny/clear in this timeframe, with overnight lows in the 50s and warm highs between about 75 to 85 areawide. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 350 AM Update... A shortwave will attempt to push a weak cold front down from the north Wednesday night, which would bring some lighter rain showers into mainly Central NY. Weak surface high pressure to the south will keep the area dry during the daytime hours of Thursday. With the passing of the weak cold front Wednesday night, temperatures will stay in the low to upper 70s for Central NY, and the Southern Tier and NE PA in the upper 70s to low 80s. Surface high pressure does not last for long. The pattern becomes more zonal, with a jet streak overhead helping to bring weak shortwaves into the area bringing rain showers and chances for storms in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 350 AM Update... Another wet pattern for the weekend is expected. A weak low pressure system moves into the area over the weekend, with on and off rain showers likely. High temperatures over the weekend are expected to be on the cool side in the 60s and low 70s. Beyond Sunday there are some pretty big differences among the various models. Sticking with the NBM, the chance for more showers continues into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 650 AM Update Periods of rain and showers continue through mid to late morning, ending from west to east. TAF sites are seeing a mixture of VFR to MVFR restrictions with the light to moderate rain around early this morning. By 13-16z clouds scatter and lift to VFR from west to east. Mainly VFR conditions are expected for this afternoon, evening and tonight for our TAF sites. A scattered line of showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms does develop between 16-19z over the NW portion of the forecast area, moving slowly southeast toward AVP by 20-23z today. Included TEMPO groups where brief MVFR restrictions could develop in these showers. Will need to watch trends in the latest CAMs model guidance to see if confidence increases in these scattered showers and/or t`storms increases. Conditions then return to VFR later this evening and through the overnight hours. West winds increase this afternoon between 6-15 kts. Outlook... Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR with isolated showers possible. Saturday...Restrictions possible in showers and isolated thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...JTC/MJM