573 FXUS61 KBGM 111032 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 632 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track up the east coast today and Saturday bringing a mix of rain and snow. High pressure builds in behind it early next week. However, several cold frontal boundaries and additional chances for showers move in for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... With the sunrise update, added in some additional showers to the forecast across the Finger Lakes with the decaying low pressure near Buffalo currently. Forecast discussion below on track. A broad area of low pressure across the region will continue to result in cloudy and showery conditions today. As a result, high temperatures will likely only get into the low and mid 40`s. For most of the day modeling depicts more in the way of isolated to scattered showers with light QPF. Reformation of the low tonight along the coast should result in an area of more widespread precipitation to develop that pivots into NE PA and portions of the Western Catskills overnight. Temperatures in the highest elevations look to cool enough for a period of snow while lower elevations see mainly rain. Lows should end up in the low to mid 30`s so a marginal setup for snow but a couple of degrees either direction could create a slight shift in the forecast. Grassy totals of a coating to locally 3 inches are possible in the highest elevations by Saturday afternoon (a wet snow with ratios 4-7:1). Precipitation looks to be more showery further north and west. With less precipitation for the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes highs could reach the mid and upper 40`s with cooler values where precipitation is steadier. Total QPF looks to be around or under half an inch. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 310 AM Update... Upper level low placed south of our region slowly moves east Saturday night. Wrap around moisture could allow showers to linger overnight as the system exits. Temperatures at 850 mb will range -1 to -2 degrees C overnight with surface temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s. These borderline temperatures could allow a few wet snowflakes to mix in with showers especially over the Western Catskills. Otherwise showers will be tapering off Saturday night as drier air pushes in. Upper level ridge along with a surface high builds into the region on Sunday. As a result drier conditions return with slightly warmer temperatures expected. Highs will climb into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Dry conditions are expected to continue Sunday night with overnight temperatures remaining cool under northwest flow. Lows will again range in the low to mid 30s across the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 310 AM Update... As the ridge progresses east Monday morning a quick moving shortwave moves along with it. This could bring a chance of rain showers to the western portion of our region, although confidence is low. Otherwise mostly dry conditions will prevail with southwest winds and warmer spring like temperatures expected. Highs will climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s by the afternoon. A better chance for rain showers arrives Monday night into Tuesday as the ridge exits east and a cold front approaches from the west. Model guidance continues to show slight timing differences in the fronts arrival. A secondary cold front follows shortly after on Tuesday as an upper trough digs into the east coast. This will allow showers to continue Tuesday with much cooler air filtering in behind the front. Precipitation type will start off as rain and will transition to a mix of rain and snow as temperatures fall. Northwest flow returns with 850 mb temperatures ranging -7 to -10 degrees C Tuesday night into Wednesday triggering a lake response with additional showers expected. A break from showers is expected on Thursday as a brief ridge builds in along with high pressure. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR restrictions for most sites at the start of the TAF period. Data indicates some lowering of restrictions today while the normal trend would be for the restrictions to lift slightly. So confidence is not ideal but general MVFR restrictions from clouds and rain showers should be present at all terminals for most of the day. More widespread rain and snow looks to move into all terminals but KSYR with KBGM,KITH and KELM on the western edge. This looks to result in lower conditions to IFR by early evening. General IFR through tonight. Outlook... Friday overnight through Saturday...Rain and snow showers and associated restrictions expected. Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday...Scattered rain showers may bring occasional restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...MWG