680 FXUS61 KPHI 032023 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 423 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain anchored offshore through early Thursday. A cold front will approach the area later on Thursday and Friday, before tracking across the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday. High pressure will briefly build in later on Sunday. A warm front will approach the forecast area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Analyzed 1024mb high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic states early this afternoon will move eastward through Wednesday and be centered about 200 miles east of the Virginia and North Carolina coast by late Wednesday. No rain is forecast through the period and subsidence will inhibit any afternoon clouds to form. The elevated smoke and haze will continue on Wednesday and impacts at the surface should remain minimal. Max temperatures Wednesday will peak in the 80s, with readings in the 70s along the coast and in higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will remain offshore of the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday night before beginning to shift well out to sea on Thursday. Dry weather is expected Wednesday night and much of Thursday. As a cold front approaches and stalls to our north and west later Thursday and Thursday night, we could see some isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across northeast PA and northwest NJ. The cold front will inch closer on Friday. As a result, we`re expecting more showers to track into the forecast area, possibly down to the 95. PWAT values will start creeping up across the region too, topping out between 1.25-1.75 inches. As a result, there will be potential for a heavy shower or downpour. Temperatures will run above normal through the period. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s. We`ve tamped down Thursday`s afternoon highs a bit due to cloud cover. Still, we`re looking at upper 70s to upper 80s for highs Thursday and Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... By Saturday, the cold front will begin to move across the area, and lead to increasing chances of precipitation. There is some instability forecast with CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, and PW values increase to 1.5-2.0 inches. So there will be the potential for thunderstorms and brief heavy downpours. Mid level winds are forecast to be fairly weak, 40-50 knots or less, so shear is not expected to be overly strong. However, there could be a few isolated strong storms. The front is forecast to stall to our south Sunday as high pressure builds to our north, possibly leading to dry conditions later Sunday into Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, said front will inch north as a warm front. Showers and Thunderstorms will pop again as a result. Lows will mainly be in the 60s. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...VFR. Light winds. Tonight...VFR. Winds light and variable. Wednesday...VFR. South winds less than 10 knots. Outlook... Wednesday night...VFR conditions expected. Thursday-Thursday night...Mainly VFR conditions expected. There`s a small chance (10-20%) a shower or thunderstorm gets into KABE or KRDG. Friday-Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. There`s a 30 to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday and 60 to 70% on Saturday...which may lead to lower conditions at times. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are in effect through Wednesday. Winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 feet. Fair weather. Outlook... Thursday and Friday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. However, winds will gust around 20 knots at times and seas will increase to 3-4 feet. Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Shower and storms will be possible Friday into Saturday, which may lead to locally higher winds and waves. Seas build to 3-5 feet. Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Rip Currents... There will continue to be a LOW risk of rip currents through Thursday. For Wednesday, expect south winds around 10-15 mph and breaking waves around 1-2 feet with a period of 7-8 seconds. For Thursday, similar conditions can be expected as south to southwest winds will be around 10 to 15 mph with breaking waves around 1-2 feet. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kruzdlo NEAR TERM...Franklin/MJL SHORT TERM...Kruzdlo/MJL LONG TERM...Kruzdlo/MJL AVIATION...Franklin/Kruzdlo/MJL MARINE...Franklin/Kruzdlo/MJL