851 FXUS61 KPHI 100003 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 803 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches tonight and moves through tomorrow. High pressure builds in for Wednesday, keeping things quiet and warm through the end of the week. A cold front moves in from the north later on Friday, stalling out near or over the area for the weekend. Several waves of low pressure ride along the front, bringing unsettled weather for the weekend and start of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A stalled out front to our south moves northward as a warm front this evening into tonight. Not expecting any precipitation from this front. In terms of cloud cover, the light east to southeast wind through the remainder of today and into tonight keeps the marine stratus overhead as well. Temperatures tonight range from the upper 50s to upper 60s. A cold front moving in from the west will lead to showers and thunderstorm potential. Generally, around 2-4 AM, showers start to move in from the west. The coverage of the showers will gradually pick up late tonight into Tuesday morning with the coverage becoming scattered with embedded thunderstorms. Throughout the day Tuesday, the cold front inches east and even looks to slow down or stall a bit while moving through our area. The highest POPs will continue being for areas that will be along and ahead of the cold front as it slowly moves east or even at times stalls. This includes areas mainly east and southeast of the urban corridor across portions of central and southern NJ into Delmarva. Instability looks to be limited but has increased with the latest data as ML cape values are around 500 j/kg and surface based cape being higher which may have to do with the front being slower. The deep layer shear also looks to be quite strong, so we can`t rule out some isolated strong to severe storms. There is also a marginal (1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook for much of our area with the potential for heavy rain with some of these showers and any thunderstorms. The main concern would be mainly for urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas. Expect highs Tuesday mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s with it also being fairly humid until drier air starts to move in behind the cold front which may not happen until the evening or even Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The cold front is offshore by Tuesday Night as skies clear out and we transition to more of a quiet period. Looks generally tranquil through the middle of the week with high pressure off to the south/southwest. Given ridging building in to the south, and the surface high to the south ushering in west/southwest flow, a warming trend begins on Wednesday, where highs get into the low to mid 80s. We go even warmer on Thursday, where areas around the I-95 corridor potentially take a run at 90, and mid to upper 80s elsewhere. PHL has not recored a 90 degree day yet, which the first one typically comes in May. A shortwave tries to dive in on Thursday, which could touch off a few showers/isolated thunderstorms in the Poconos, but nothing of significance. Cooler overnight lows on Tuesday Night with the front sweeping through and skies clearing out where lows drop into the upper 50s/low 60s. More summerlike lows for Wednesday Night and Thursday Night with the warming trend, where temperatures only get down into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front sags down from the north on Friday afternoon, stalling out over the area for the weekend. Several waves of low pressure will ride along the front, with periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected through the long term. Model guidance tends to struggle with setups like these, and this case is no different. Not expecting a weekend washout, but rather periods of rain with a few thunderstorms mixed in and mostly cloudy skies outside of any precipitation. While Friday will be warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s ahead of the front, temperatures cool off for the weekend, with a period of below normal temperatures expected. Saturday through Monday looks to feature highs in the low to mid 70s. Currently not expecting any hydro or severe issues at this time for the weekend. Cloudy and cool conditions should keep things stable, and rainfall amounts in the extended deterministic and ensemble guidance do not show overwhelming amounts. All in all, just looks like another weekend featuring rain. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...Mainly MVFR conditions to start, with IFR ceilings developing by 03Z. LIFR ceilings will be possible approaching 12Z. Mist/light drizzle will develop across the area through the overnight. After 07-08Z, showers move in from west to east. Embedded thunder is possible, especially for the I-95 terminals. East- southeast wind less than 5 kt. Moderate confidence overall, with low confidence in exact timing details and lowest flight categories. Tuesday...IFR conditions with periods of LIFR remaining possible during the early morning, with ceilings gradually improving from west to east. Showers will be most likely between 12-16Z, with embedded thunder remaining possible, especially for the I-95 terminals. Most terminals should improve to MVFR by 18Z. Visibility looks to improve at most terminals through the morning. KMIV and KACY may continue to see visibility restrictions into the afternoon. Light wind becoming northwest at 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence overall, with low confidence in exact timing details and lowest flight categories. Outlook... Tuesday Night through Thursday Night...VFR. No significant weather. Friday...VFR to start but restrictions possible later in the day as a cold front approaches with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving in. Friday Night through Saturday...Restrictions likely (60-70%) with low clouds and showers around. && .MARINE... Tonight...A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for tonight for visibility dropping to 1 NM or less for the New Jersey ocean waters. Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Outlook... Tuesday Night through Friday...No marine headlines expected. Rip Currents... For Tuesday...South-southwest winds around 10-15 mph. Breaking wave heights of 1-3 feet with a 3-4 foot 6-7 second period swell from the east. A MODERATE risk for dangerous rip currents continues for Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May County beaches, whereas a LOW risk for rip currents is in place for Monmouth County and Delaware Beaches due to winds blowing offshore. We`ll also be within 2 days of the Full Moon phase, which may cause stronger than normal rip currents under these conditions. For Wednesday...West-southeast winds around 10-15 mph. Breaking wave heights of 1-3 feet with a 3 foot 6-7 second period from the east to east-northeast. A MODERATE risk for dangerous rip currents continues for Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May County beaches, whereas a LOW risk for rip currents is in place for Monmouth County and Delaware Beaches due to winds blowing offshore. We`ll be within 1 day of the Full Moon phase, which may cause stronger than normal rip currents under these conditions. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>453. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich NEAR TERM...Guzzo SHORT TERM...Hoeflich LONG TERM...Hoeflich AVIATION...Cooper/Guzzo/Hoeflich MARINE...Guzzo/Hoeflich