628
FXUS61 KPBZ 231122
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
722 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A dangerous heat wave is expected through mid week. Record or
near record high temperatures could occur today and Tuesday.
Thunderstorm chances return mid to late week as a surface front
approaches and stalls near the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Extreme Heat Warning/ Heat Advisory in effect
- Dry and hot again today
---------------------------------------------------------------
A 599 dam 500mb high is progged to be centered over the central
Appalachians/Ohio Valley today, as 850 mb temperatures reach 20
deg C. This will result in another hot and humid day across the
region, with temperatures likely a couple of degrees higher
than observed on Sunday. Record or near record highs are
possible at many of the long term climate sites today (please
see climate section below.)
Model soundings indicate a few/scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will
develop as convective temperatures are reached. Capping and dry air
aloft under the strong high will also maintain dry weather across
the region today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Heat and potential record highs continue Tuesday
- Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisories continue through Wednesday
- Isolated strong storms possible Tuesday afternoon/evening
- Shower/storm chances increase Wednesday afternoon
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The strong ridge/598 dam upper high will maintain dry weather for
most of the area through Tuesday, as it remains centered across the
Ohio Valley region. Monday night lows are expected to remain in the
70-75 degree range for most of the area. Highs on Tuesday should be
similar to those seen today, with similar 500 mb heights and 850mb
temperatures progged. The latest CAMs do have some potential
for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms as convective
temperatures are reached, with weak capping aloft compared to
previous days. The Storm Prediction Center has included a
portion of the area north of I-70 in a Marginal Risk for severe
storms. This is mainly due to dry air aloft enhancing the DCAPE,
and downburst potential.
The upper high begins to shift to the south and retrograde SW on
Wednesday, as a shortwave tracks along its norther periphery, and a
surface cold front approaches from the NW. The cap is also expected
to erode. This scenario should result in shower and thunderstorm
chances increasing, especially in the afternoon and evening, with
the highest potential north of PIT closer to the surface front.
While temperatures will likely be a couple of degrees lower on
Wednesday, readings in the upper 80s to mid 90s are still likely.
This will also prolong the heat impacts, with heat indices in
the 90s to around 100.
Surface based CAPE is expected to reach 2000-2500 j/kg by afternoon
and evening. With the hot weather, and dry mid level air expected,
any organized storms have the potential to result in damaging
wind gusts, with the dry mid level air enhancing the DCAPE. Slow
storm motion could also result in a localized heavy rainfall
potential.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- More active pattern with daily shower/thunderstorm chances
- Hot and humid conditions continue
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate the upper high will continue to slowly
break down into the weekend. Westerly flow aloft is then expected
across much of the Upper Ohio Valley region. Disturbances embedded
in the flow, and a quasi stationary front located just to our north,
should result in periodic shower and thunderstorm chances across the
region as we return to a more active weather pattern. With
relatively weak flow and slow storm motion, and elevated PWATS,
heavy rainfall will be a potential as these waves cross the area.
Analogs and machine learning probabilities also indicate periodic
chances of strong to severe storms.
Temperatures are expected to range from the mid 80s to the lower 90s
through the period, with some potential for lingering heat headlines
on Thursday. There is a high amount of uncertainty in this
potential, as it will be highly dependent on convection and
cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through TAF period with a slightly
veering west southwest wind that could see brief afternoon gusts
to 15kts. Diurnal heating may generate a few cumulus that
subside by 00z.
Similar conditions are highly likely to start the day Tuesday,
with a few diurnally driven cu and lighter westerly wind.
Outlook...
Progression of western Great Lakes convection eastward and weak
shortwave movement will slowly shunt the upper ridge south
through the end of the week. Expect shower and thunderstorm
chances to increase starting late Tuesday over primarily in
northwest PA before the axis of potential storms edge southward
Wednesday/Thursday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record high maximum (left) and daily record high minimum (right)
temperatures will be in jeopardy over the next several days:
Monday June 23rd
Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1894) 76F (1888)
Zanesville, OH: 96F (1899) 70F (1975)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1899) 71F (1957)
Dubois, PA: 88F (1966) 66F (2017)
Wheeling, WV: 94F (1948) 69F (2013)
New Philadelphia, OH: 97F (1988) 72F (1948)
Tuesday June 24th
Pittsburgh, PA: 96F (1882) 72F (1884)
Zanesville, OH: 98F (1930) 73F (1937)
Morgantown, WV: 94F (1921, 1949) 76F (1924)
Dubois, PA: 88F (1966) 67F (2013)
Wheeling, WV: 98F (1933, 1943) 73F (1908)
New Philadelphia, OH: 94F (1964) 70F (1975)
Wednesday June 25th
Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (1988) 75F (1952)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (1988) 72F (1952)
Morgantown, WV: 94F (1921, 1952, 1988) 74F (1952)
Dubois, PA: 91F (1966) 67F (2000)
Wheeling, WV: 97F (1943) 75F (1952)
New Philadelphia, OH: 92F (1966, 2002, 2005) 68F (2013)
Thursday June 26th
Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1966) 75F (1952)
Zanesville, OH: 97F (1952) 73F (1952)
Morgantown, WV: 96F (1952) 74F (1952)
Dubois, PA: 91F (1966) 66F (2000)
Wheeling, WV: 96F (1943, 1952) 73F (1952)
New Philadelphia, OH: 99F (1988) 71F (2022)
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ007>009-013-015-
016-022-031-074-076>078.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ014-020-
021-029-073-075.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ039>041-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>513.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Frazier
CLIMATE...MLB