274 FXUS61 KPBZ 111156 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 756 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Expect some showers behind a low pressure system passing to the south. The lake effect showers will persist through Saturday. High pressure then returns for Sunday as dry weather is expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Some morning patchy fog possible. - Lake effect showers expected through Saturday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The current setup features showers coming to an end across the area as the upper trough axis swings through the area later this morning. This will bring northwest flow over the area and allowing some lake effect showers to continue especially into the afternoon with some differential heating as high temperatures will warm into the lower 50s this afternoon. This will still be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The continued northwest flow will be amplified as the mentioned low pressure system passes the forecast area to the south and then swings up the east coast. This is expected to keep most of the precip to the east of the PBZ CWA. Still, the continued northwest flow will keep the threat of lake effect showers in the forecast through tonight and into Saturday for that matter. The HREF precip amounts keep only about 20% to 30% chance of 0.50 inches only in Preston and Tucker Counties. The rest of the area will see much less precip, perhaps barely even enough to get a quarter of an inch. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry conditions Saturday night and continuing through Sunday. - The next system brings a slight chance of precip Sunday night. ------------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure is expected to develop and move into the region by Saturday night. There is the potential of a few stray showers Saturday night along the Laurels, but should dissipate by Sunday morning. Temperatures are expected to return to normal values by Sunday as highs return to highs near 60 degrees. Dry conditions are expected during the day. By Sunday night, another low pressure system will lift northeast into the Great Lakes with the warm front lifting north of the forecast area Sunday night. This will bring a slight chance of showers to the area with a 5% to 10% chance of a tenth of rainfall. This will also bring the warm sector the area heading into Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Potential of Severe Weather on Monday. - A few snow showers possible Tuesday night. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The main concern for the extended forecast period will be the potential of severe weather as a stout cold front swings through the forecast area Monday late afternoon/evening. A 40 knot low level jet is possible as the front approaches the forecast area. The NBM statistics indicate that the SB CAPE heading into this event is 500 J/Kg or less but the proximity of the front and the low center will make this event one to watch. Any clearing into the warm sector will make a huge difference in the instability available. The NBM does suggest the CWASP will register around 50 to 60 for Monday hinting at the potential. Especially since temperatures on Monday will warm in to the low 70s, roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The front will pass through the area leading to another cold snap behind the front. This will make for a few instances of post frontal showers and even a few snow showers for Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. There is not expected to be any significant accumulation as ground temperatures will still be quite warm after highs on Monday. High pressure will then infiltrate the region keep dry conditions in place for Wednesday and Thursday. The NBM probs suggest a 80% probability of dry conditions during this period. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Visibilities have generally improved to VFR thanks to an increase in northerly winds early this morning, but ceilings remain locked in at IFR/LIFR everywhere except ZZV which has crept up to low-end MVFR. Expect a slow improvement in ceilings to MVFR for terminals roughly along and west of the I-79 corridor. The exception may be DUJ/LBE/MGW, which have the highest chances (30-50%) of remaining at IFR throughout the day. A few light showers will be possible along the ridges this morning and afternoon, with those precip chances then potentially expanding westward towards about the PA/OH state line after 00z. Included PROB30`s at appropriate terminals to reflect this potential. Widespread IFR returns overnight, except at ZZV which continues to see improvement to VFR. There will once again be potential for patchy fog development, mainly near the ridges (DUJ, LBE, MGW) and at typical trouble spots like FKL and BVI. Winds throughout the period remain generally light (5 to 10 knots) out of the north. Outlook... Restrictions are likely to continue, along with rain and snow showers, through Saturday night as an upper low drifts across the region. VFR returns Sunday under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger NEAR TERM...Shallenberger SHORT TERM...Shallenberger LONG TERM...Shallenberger AVIATION...Cermak