101
FXUS61 KPBZ 240018
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
818 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A dangerous heat wave is expected through mid week. Record or
near record high temperatures could occur Tuesday. Thunderstorm
chances return mid to late week as a surface front approaches
and stalls near the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Extreme Heat Warning/Heat Advisory in effect
- Warm and muggy overnight
---------------------------------------------------------------
The long lasting ridge will remain in place through tonight.
Most of the earlier diurnal cumulus have already dissipated. Another
warm and muggy night is forecast, with little overnight
recovery from the oppressive heat. A few wisps of cirrus are
possible overnight, as well as some patches of light fog towards
morning.
An interesting note from the in-progress 00Z PBZ sounding: the
freezing level currently is at 16,000 feet AGL. According to
the SPC sounding climatology for our site, this is the 21st
highest freezing level measured for our site (records go back to
1952). Interestingly, this is NOT the highest freezing level
recorded on June 24th - that would be from the same date in
1963, when the freezing level was around 16,800 feet.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Heat and potential record highs continue Tuesday
- Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisories continue through Wednesday
- Isolated strong storms possible Tuesday afternoon/evening
- Shower/storm chances increase Wednesday afternoon
----------------------------------------------------------------
The strong ridge/598 dam upper high will maintain dry weather for
most of the area through Tuesday, as it remains centered across the
Ohio Valley region. Highs on Tuesday should be similar to those
seen on Monday, with similar 500 mb heights and 850mb
temperatures progged. The latest CAMs do have some potential for
isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms as convective
temperatures are reached, with weak capping aloft compared to
previous days. The Storm Prediction Center has included a
portion of the area north of I-70 in a Marginal Risk for severe
storms. This is mainly due to dry air aloft enhancing the DCAPE,
and downburst potential. It is worth mentioning that the NBM for
the convection potential for Tuesday is around 10%. Also, pops
set out for Tuesday were limited at best. Thus, there is not
alot of confidence in convection developing before 00Z tomorrow.
Will keep the mention in the HWO and will likely need to adjust
pops during the next update.
The upper high begins to shift to the south and retrograde SW on
Wednesday, as a shortwave tracks along its norther periphery, and a
surface cold front approaches from the NW. The cap is also expected
to erode. This scenario should result in shower and thunderstorm
chances increasing, especially in the afternoon and evening, with
the highest potential north of PIT closer to the surface front.
While temperatures will likely be a couple of degrees lower on
Wednesday, readings in the upper 80s to mid 90s are still likely.
This will also prolong the heat impacts, with heat indices in
the 90s to around 100.
Surface based CAPE is expected to reach 2000-2500 j/kg by afternoon
and evening. With the hot weather, and dry mid level air expected,
any organized storms have the potential to result in damaging
wind gusts, with the dry mid level air enhancing the DCAPE. Slow
storm motion could also result in a localized heavy rainfall
potential. With the ridge weakening, the Wednesday timeframe
will be the most likely to pose an issue. The convection will
begin to weaken into Wednesday night but the rainfall threat
should continue.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- More active pattern with daily shower/thunderstorm chances
- Hot and humid conditions continue
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate the upper high will continue to slowly
break down into the weekend. Westerly flow aloft is then expected
across much of the Upper Ohio Valley region. Disturbances embedded
in the flow, and a quasi stationary front located just to our north,
should result in periodic shower and thunderstorm chances across the
region as we return to a more active weather pattern. With
relatively weak flow and slow storm motion, and elevated PWATS,
heavy rainfall will be a potential as these waves cross the area.
Analogs and machine learning probabilities also indicate periodic
chances of strong to severe storms.
Temperatures are expected to range from the mid 80s to the lower 90s
through the period, with some potential for lingering heat headlines
on Thursday. There is a high amount of uncertainty in this
potential, as it will be highly dependent on convection and
cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through TAF period. Wind will gradually
veer overnight becoming more westerly by Tuesday morning. Diurnal
heating may again generate a few cumulus that subside by 00z.
Outlook...
Progression of western Great Lakes convection eastward and weak
shortwave movement will slowly shunt the upper ridge south
through the end of the week. Expect shower and thunderstorm
chances to increase starting late Tuesday over primarily in
northwest PA before the axis of potential storms edge southward
Wednesday/Thursday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record high maximum (left) and daily record high minimum (right)
temperatures will be in jeopardy over the next several days:
Monday June 23rd
Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1894) 76F (1888)
Zanesville, OH: 96F (1899) 70F (1975)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1899) 71F (1957)
Dubois, PA: 88F (1966) 66F (2017)
Wheeling, WV: 94F (1948) 69F (2013)
New Philadelphia, OH: 97F (1988) 72F (1948)
Tuesday June 24th
Pittsburgh, PA: 96F (1882) 72F (1884)
Zanesville, OH: 98F (1930) 73F (1937)
Morgantown, WV: 94F (1921, 1949) 76F (1924)
Dubois, PA: 88F (1966) 67F (2013)
Wheeling, WV: 98F (1933, 1943) 73F (1908)
New Philadelphia, OH: 94F (1964) 70F (1975)
Wednesday June 25th
Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (1988) 75F (1952)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (1988) 72F (1952)
Morgantown, WV: 94F (1921, 1952, 1988) 74F (1952)
Dubois, PA: 91F (1966) 67F (2000)
Wheeling, WV: 97F (1943) 75F (1952)
New Philadelphia, OH: 92F (1966, 2002, 2005) 68F (2013)
Thursday June 26th
Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1966) 75F (1952)
Zanesville, OH: 97F (1952) 73F (1952)
Morgantown, WV: 96F (1952) 74F (1952)
Dubois, PA: 91F (1966) 66F (2000)
Wheeling, WV: 96F (1943, 1952) 73F (1952)
New Philadelphia, OH: 99F (1988) 71F (2022)
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ007>009-013-015-
016-022-031-074-076>078.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ014-020-
021-029-073-075.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ039>041-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>513.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...CL/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...WM/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...WM/Shallenberger
AVIATION...Rackley/Frazier
CLIMATE...