219 FXUS61 KCTP 170756 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 356 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... *Areas of frost early this morning, otherwise sunny and milder with low humidity and no precipitation today *Warming trend continues into Easter weekend with a passing shower on Friday and a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and early evening as a cold front pushes SE across the state. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Upper level trough lifts away from the state today. Ridging at the surface and aloft building over the region, combined with quite large sfc T/Td spreads will negate any cu from forming today, and will bring much lighter wind today. About all that we could see in the way of clouds are some thin wispy cirrus later this afternoon and evening. High temps ranging from the low-mid 50s over the Northern and Western Mtns to the low 60s in the Central and Southern Valleys will be about a deg F or so either side of normal for the date. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly clear skies with near calm air early tonight, then increasing clouds late with a light southerly breeze developing. This will lead to notably milder temps compared to those 24 hours earlier. Milder air will move back into the region Friday into Saturday as a warm front lifts north of the region. Can`t rule out a passing rain shower on Friday especially in the northern tier. Very mild temps are fcst to start Easter weekend with max temps 65-80F or 10 to 20 degrees above the historical average. Models show a cold front impinging on the warm and increasingly moist/unstable warm sector airmass on Saturday which could trigger a few strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. The SPC Day 4 SLGT risk (15% prob severe) reaches the southwest portion of the CWA and have added risk of severe T+ storms to the HWO and wx grids. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Most guidance suggests that the dying cold front will push south of PA Sat night with dry and mild weather to follow Sunday, as high pressure noses southward from the E Grt Lks. Medium range guidance shows mean upper level ridging along the East Coast Mon-Wed of next week, supporting generally dry weather with somewhat above normal temperatures. However, a weakening shortwave is progged to lift north through the Grt Lks early in the week. Latest EPS/GEFS suggest the best chance of showers from this feature will come sometime in the Monday to Tuesday AM timeframe, as the associated surface low passes north of PA and the trailing cold/occluded front works through the forecast area. The severe weather threat currently appears low Monday, as most guidance indicates Central PA will remain relatively stable south of the triple point low track. Latest ensemble plumes indicate total rainfall will not be especially heavy Mon-Tue AM (0.1 to 0.3 inches), as the parent shortwave and best large scale forcing are progged to pass north of the state. Surface high building in from the Ohio Valley should provide the region with fair and mild weather Tuesday. Fair and warmer conditions look likely Wednesday, as the high slips off of the Mid Atlantic Coast and return southwest flow ensues. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions under mainly clear skies with light winds are expected for much of the night tonight and through the day on Thursday with high pressure in control. The region is relatively dry with dewpoints in the mid 20s, but given clear skies and light winds it is possible for isolated valley fog to develop during the early morning hours. The possibility of this fog reaching any of the airfields remains less than 30%. A southwest flow of warmer and more humid air is in store for the area on Friday. There could be a shower across the north and west later in the day friday. Other than maybe a shower at BFD, most of the area should remain dry on Friday. Outlook... Fri...Mainly VFR with restrictions possible late as showers and thunderstorms develop northwest of UNV. Sat...Widespread showers and thunderstorms with restrictions as a cold front moves through. Sun...A few showers possible, mainly late. Mon...Scattered showers. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ026>028-035- 036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Bowen