480 FXUS61 KCTP 031912 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 312 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Very warm and more humid with temperatures peaking 80-90F Wednesday and Thursday; moderate HeatRisk * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms primarily from Thursday afternoon into the first full weekend of June && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Smoke holding about the same over the E, but does appear to have thinned a little in the W. No hint of cu at all with RH running in the 30s. The mainly clear sky (other than the smoke) will help temps cool a little at first, but a light S wind over the higher elevations should keep them just above normal mins. The rest of the area will get down near normal (M50s) as the dewpoints should rise 5-10F overnight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main change to Wed was to add a 20 PoP in for the aftn along the spine of the Appalachians. Looks like the rise in dewpoints and elevated heating surfaces of the mtns of Central PA should make some moderate to towering cu. Whether or not 1 or 2 make precip that can reach the ground is only at a 20pct confidence/chance. Prev... Deep layer ridge is broken down through the period by shortwaves rotating around the southern periphery of upper trough parked over Hudson Bay. A cold front over the Great Lakes will make slow southeastward progress and should trigger showers and t-storms Thursday PM particularly over the northern portion of CPA. We could envision the D3 MRGL risk being pulled back to the south/west with later outlook issuances. The front is expected to become quasi stationary Thursday night and act as a conduit for additional rainfall through late week. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days of the week with max temps in the 80-90F range. The humidity will also trend higher, but max heat index values only reach the low 90s. That being said, there is a moderate HeatRisk in some areas with a key factor for potential impacts likely being the lack of heat acclimation given the relatively cool/wet wx over the past month. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Confidence in the forecast becomes lower after Friday, though some ensemble members along with much of the deterministic guidance show an area of low pressure developing along the stalled frontal boundary which will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to much of the region from Friday night into Saturday. There is quite a bit of spread as to where this low will track, which will influence where the heaviest rain falls. Ensemble mean QPF ranges generally from 0.5-1" as this feature moves through. The front finally pushes east of Pennsylvania on Sunday and upper level ridging attempts to build in behind it, bringing a period of drier weather with seasonable temperatures to end the weekend. Rain chances return to the forecast on Monday as a trough approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Smoke does not appear to be impacting near-sfc vis. So, VFR is the rule. Wind dies off in the valleys, but does stay up ~5KT on the higher elevations. It doesn`t increase much Wed, but veers a little more to the come out of the SW. From the latest model forecasts, the smoke appears to be similar or slightly thinner on Wed. The increase in temps and dewpoints should help us generate sct-bkn cu along the spine of the Appalachians Wed aftn. A few of the taller cu could generate rain that reaches the ground, but the chc of that occurring is <20 pct, and the chc of it dipping the vsby at any of our terminals (AOO-UNV-IPT mainly) is <10pct. So, we`ll have no mention of the poss of SHRA at this range. Perhaps later shifts will add a VCSH at some point. A frontal system will drop in from the W and perhaps make a couple of showers on Thursday aftn for BFD. All other C PA terminals should stay dry & VFR. Then, we`ll have a prolonged period of unsettled wx for Fri-Sat. Multiple chcs for SHRA/TSRA. Outlook... Thu...Potential brief restrictions in SHRA/TSRA BFD. Fri...Numerous SHRA/TSRA, esp NW. Brief reductions to MVFR and IFR in the TSRA. Sat...Showers/PM TSRA continue, gradually tapering off across NW PA late. Sun...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Bauco LONG TERM...Martin/Bauco AVIATION...Dangelo/NPB/Bowen