898
FXUS61 KCTP 161928
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
228 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Warming trend continues through Thursday, trending near-to-
  slightly above average by Wednesday.
* Winds will pick up by midweek with gusts of 30 to 40 mph
  possible at times from Wednesday into Friday with fast-moving
  frontal systems.
* Rain showers Thursday/Thursday night, chances continue into
  Friday, especially across NW PA where a transition to snow
  showers is possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Transient high-level clouds are gradually traversing the area
this afternoon and will gradually continue throughout the
evening hours. A more expansive area of lower clouds currently
stationed over southern Ohio will enter western Pennsylvania
closer to sunset. Increasing cloud cover overnight will allow
for less optimal radiational cooling, thus NBM MinTs in the 20s
across much of the area seems very reasonable. Main sensible
weather concern in the overnight will be some potential in model
guidance (namely the NAM) which outlines some eye towards
(freezing) drizzle across the Laurel Highlands between 10Z/5am
EST and 12Z/7am EST. Recent model guidance has trended back on
this threat, so have kept mentions out of HWO/WWA products and
will continue to highlight in the AFD with some potential for a
short-fused SPS, if conditions warrant.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions continue on Wednesday, with the warming trend
continuing through Thursday. Lower probability outcome exists
where minimal precipitation occurs with a moisture-starved front
across the northern zones but the bulk of model guidance
continues to keep conditions dry on Wednesday. Cold front will
track close; however, with an increasing pressure gradient
allowing for wind gusts above 30 mph across northern and western
Pennsylvania on Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday reach
near- to- slightly above climatological averages for the middle
of the December, ranging from the mid-30s to the upper 40s.
High temperatures trend warmer on Thursday ahead of the next
system, with temperatures 5F-10F above climatological averages.

Robust surface low pressure tracking across the northern Great
Lakes will bring about the next weather system across central
Pennsylvania. The bulk of model guidance indicates widespread
rainfall is expected to enter central Pennsylvania beginning
Thursday afternoon and continue overspreading the area by the
evening hours. Precipitation continues through much of
Friday across the northwestern Pennsylvania while gradually
tapering off west-to-east elsewhere during the morning/afternoon
hours. A transition to rain/snow mix will be possible west of
the Allegheny Front near/slightly after sunrise before snow
becomes the dominant precipitation type as after the cold
frontal passage.

A combination of the aforementioned potent low pressure system,
couple with a building high across the southeast, will lead to
an increasing surface pressure gradient that will allow for
gusty winds on Friday. Recent NBM guidance has indicated a
slight uptick in winds/gusts for Friday; however, given synoptic
set-up widespread 30-40 mph range seem plausible with locally
higher wind gusts across the Laurel Highlands. Wind Advisory
potential continues in this timeframe with highest
probabilities of exceeding advisory criteria across the higher
elevations of central Pennsylvania.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A series of warm fronts move back to the northeast for the
weekend so we`re continuing to highlight some chance of some
precipitation with uncertainty in the forecast continuing this
cycle. Recent model soundings continue to highlight some
potential for mixed precipitation across the northern half of
the area. Any accumulations are expected to be on the light side
with some spots perhaps not getting anything.

Slightly higher chances of precipitation in the forecast
progressing into the early stages of the week as GFS guidance
indicates a low pressure system passing across Quebec; however,
there remains quite a bit uncertainty this far out with EC model
guidance indicating high pressure and fair weather for the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low clouds moving up from the SW will drop the cigs at JST and
esp BFD tonight. NAM indicates some chc of DZ (which would be
FZDZ if it occurs). Will only mention that here for the time
being. The rest of the area will have mainly mid/high clouds
overnight as a weak system zips across NY. Lower clouds will
spread to the SE after a weak cold front moves through the area
due to that system on Wed evening. The biggest impact to the
Central PA airspace will be a strong LLJet and LLWS over JST/BFD
where the wind at 2kft up will be ~50KT from the WSW. The LLWS
will not be as strong at the rest of the terminals, but 40KT is
possible at AOO and UNV. Timing on the strongest flow at FL020
is between 06Z-18Z over the W and a few hours later in the
central/eastern terminals. SFC gusts will be into the 20s and
perhaps as high as 30KT over the W later tonight and Wed. The
wind slackens Wed night between this system and the next - more
potent - storm system.

Outlook...

Thu...Widespread SHRA occasionally reducing conditions to IFR.
May end as a brief period of snow in the west. CFROPA Thurs
night.

Fri...Gusty W wind (40+ kts possible). MVFR w/SCT SHSN NW.
Mainly VFR elsewhere.

Sat-Sun...MVFR-IFR BFD in SCT -SHSN. MVFR cigs elsewhere.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Astronomical winter (solstice) begins at 10:03 a.m. on Sunday,
December 21st.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff/NPB
NEAR TERM...NPB
SHORT TERM...NPB
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...Dangelo
CLIMATE...Steinbugl