433 FXUS61 KBGM 122323 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 723 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... There is a small chance for an isolated thunderstorm in Northeastern Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening, but dry conditions elsewhere. The pattern will become more active Friday and this weekend, with multiple rounds of showers and chances for thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 710 PM Update... Chances of precipitation were lowered and shifted south as a surface boundary has moved south of the region with a fairly stable air mass through NEPA. Some outflow is moving north at this time with some cumulus bubbling up along it so there is still a small chance that a thunderstorm could fire off this evening. Previous Discussion... Very little change in the forecast for this afternoon. Still a very small chance for an isolated thunderstorm for our far southern CWA (Luzerne County). Otherwise, high pressure will hold on until at least late Friday afternoon. Shortwave approaches from the west Friday evening with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing Friday evening. Showers and storms will likely persist into the early morning hours on Saturday. 130 AM Update... Ridging holds out for Thursday through Friday early afternoon, leading to mainly dry conditions. A very weak frontal boundary moving north to south across Central NY will attempt to initiate showers and a few storms later this afternoon and evening. Though, chances are decreasing since there is a very negligible amount of CAPE, and only one high-resolution model depicts this solution. We decided to leave in slight chances for showers and storms for mainly NE PA since there is one model that depicts this solution, but it`s only for the southern parts of NE PA; Luzerne-Lackawanna-Wyoming counties. With that weak frontal boundary moving southward through the day, high temperatures will be divided by a line along the NY-PA state border, with highs in the mid to upper 70s for Central NY, and upper 70s to mid 80s in NE PA. This weak front will continue a southward descent overnight Thursday, leading to cooler temperatures on Friday of low to mid 70s in Central NY, and in the mid 70s to low 80s in NE PA. Ridging finally gives out heading into Friday afternoon-evening as a shortwave approaches, bringing chances for rain showers and storms. After Friday, the pattern becomes more active, and is discussed in the short and long term discussions below. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... No major changes to the forecast as a stationary front will remain just to our south. Because of the front is dipping further south, the trend of lowering PoPs continues. NE PA will have the best chance for showers and thunderstorms with decreasing PoPs into Central NY. 330 AM Update This period will feature an unsettled weather pattern with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible over the weekend. Model guidance continues to show an area of showers and thunderstorms riding northeast into and across our forecast area Friday night along a stationary front. Otherwise, Friday night will be mainly cloudy and seasonable with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s for most locations. Rainfall chances are trending down on Saturday now with the latest 00z guidance. The nearly stationary front will be situated near the NY/PA border through the day, with instability building south of this boundary. There will still be chances for scattered showers and isolate thunderstorms Saturday afternoon... with the highest PoPs (50-60%) now confined to the immediate southern tier of NY and NE PA. It will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy and a little humid with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s. PWATs are still progged to be around 1.50 inches across the Wyoming Valley region; therefore WPC continues the marginal risk for excessive rainfall over NE PA. A bit of a backdoor front sweeps in from the northeast Saturday night, pushing any MLCAPE out of our area. There will however still be chances for scattered showers overnight and right through the day on Sunday as the upper level shortwave trough moves into the eastern Ohio Valley. There is the potential for a marine layer over the east/southeast third of the CWA; this will keeps temperatures a little cooler here. Overall, expect overnight lows in the mid-50s to low 60s once again, and highs in the 70s. The upper level wave starts to get sheared out and remains south of the area Sunday night. This will lead to mainly cloudy skies and a chance for a few showers around with lows around 60 in the forecast. Overall, the weekend is not looking like a washout...but it will be rather cloudy with on and off showers or t`storms each day. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast remains on-track and no major changes noted in the 12Z model guidance. 345 AM Update Zonal westerly flow will be persistent Monday and Tuesday, but with plenty of moisture and instability around any minor disturbances or shortwave can initiate scattered showers and t`storms. Overall, carrying 30-50% PoPs for the afternoon and evenings on these two days. Outside of any showers or storms it will be partly sunny and seasonable with highs in the 70s on Monday, and mid-70s to lower 80s Tuesday. Warm and muggy overnight with lows in the 60s both Monday night and Tuesday night. By Wednesday, a better organized higher amplitude trough approaches from the west. A warm southerly flow out ahead of it will act to increase temperatures and instability. Highs reach the low to mid-80s in the afternoon along with likely showers and thunderstorms. Timing uncertainty increases by next Thursday, but some of the deterministic guidance brings the upper level trough directly overhead during the day. This would keep a good chance for showers and/or t`storms in the forecast. Temperatures remain warm, very similar to Wednesday`s numbers and dew points could approach 70 by mid to late week...making it feel very humid out there. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Fairly high confidence that VFR/unrestricted conditions will stay in tact through the end of the valid TAF period. Winds expected to be light and variable. Outlook... Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in showers and isolated thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/MPK NEAR TERM...AJG/KL/MPK/MJM SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM LONG TERM...MPK/MJM AVIATION...KL/MWG