825
FXUS61 KCLE 162344
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
744 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west tonight and persists for
Thursday. Low pressure lifts into the Great Lakes on Friday,
lifting a warm front through the region. This is quickly
followed by a cold front Friday night or early Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to build in from the northwest this
afternoon through tonight. Any lingering cloud cover this
afternoon should give way to clear skies today and mostly sunny
skies on Thursday. A warm front approaches from the west
Thursday night, should see gradually thickening cloud cover
starting Thursday afternoon out west ahead of the front,
followed isolated to scattered rain showers with the front
itself late Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The local area will be in the warm sector by daybreak Friday behind
a warm front that will have lifted north across the region Thursday
night. The bulk of the day on Friday is trending warmer, drier, and
breezy as mid-level dry air enters behind the warm front and cloud
cover scatters out. Daytime heating Friday afternoon should allow
for high temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70s with a few
spots making a run at 80 degrees. It will be breezy Friday afternoon
as southwesterly winds are likely to gust to 35+ MPH, mainly across
the I-75 corridor.

By Friday evening and overnight, an upper level trough will begin to
enter from the west with some some potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms to initiate. The timing remains less than favorable
for severe weather given the quick loss of daytime heating after
sunset. Portions of northwest Ohio remain in a Day 3 Slight Risk
(Level 2/5) for Severe Thunderstorms on Friday evening so this will
continue to be something to monitor. The primary threat in any
severe storm that materializes will be damaging wind gusts. A
surface cold front will gradually glide southeast on Saturday before
stalling south of the local area. For now have continued PoPs
through Saturday evening given the location of the stalled front.

Warm overnight lows on Friday night will settle in the upper 50s to
low 60s. Highs on Saturday will be about 10-15 degrees cooler than
Friday as they rise into the mid to upper 60s. Cooler overnight lows
Saturday night behind the cold front as they dip into the mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A brief area of high pressure may build in from the north on Sunday
before the next low pressure system arrives from the southwest on
Monday. There remains a fair amount of spread across models late
this weekend and early next week with the Canadian showing the cold
front sagging further south and therefore leading to dry weather on
Sunday, whereas the GFS and ECMWF continue to signal that the front
will remain stalled across the Ohio Valley. Additionally, the ECMWF
and Canadian show a faster progression of the surface low with GFS
signaling a much slower progression. Given this, NBM has continued
to keep chance PoPs in place across the region through much of the
long term period before weak high pressure attempts to build
overhead by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Low level moisture has exited the region, and VFR prevails.
Winds have also all come down below 12kts with the exception of
ERI which has a couple more hours of 20kt gusts to around
02-03Z. Winds will eventually become southerly after 12Z
Thursday.

Outlook...Isolated non-VFR possible in rain showers Friday
morning. More widespread non-VFR likely with some thunderstorms
possible Friday night Saturday, followed by periods of non-VFR
Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will persist across Lake Erie through Thursday
allowing for winds to diminish and waves to subside through this
evening. Westerly winds will turn light and variable overnight
tonight. A warm front will approach the lake from the southwest
Thursday night/early Friday morning with southeasterly winds
increasing Thursday night to 10-15 knots. By daybreak Friday,
southerly winds increase to 15-20 knots. Southwesterly winds 15-20
knots will persist Friday night through Saturday evening.

A cold front will sweep southeast across the Lake Friday on Saturday
with winds turning northwesterly while decreasing to 10-15 knots
behind the cold front. The front may stall just south of the lake
through the remainder of the weekend with winds turning
northeasterly on Sunday ahead of low pressure lifting northeast
towards the Great Lakes region on Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26
MARINE...13