527
FXUS61 KBGM 050438
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA
1238 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will then drift over the area tomorrow
through Saturday, with showery waves of low pressure, and
perhaps thunder at times. A few of the storms Thursday afternoon
could be gusty.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

With the midnight update, made some additional minor
adjustments to temperatures and coverage of fog for the
overnight hours. Fog looks quite patchy at best for most
locations.

Only minor changes with the evening updates. A quiet night is
ahead and will continue to monitor the potential for fog
formation.

200 PM Update...

Increased the coverage of fog for overnight, mainly in the
Catskills and the western Southern Tier where dew points have
been able to hold steady and even increase a bit.

10 AM Update...

Thinner smoke today has helped with heating up the region with
widespread upper 70s and even 80s already at noon. Satellite
imagery shows a good amount of fair weather cumulus developing
in western NY as return flow from the departing surface high is
helping to advect in some better low and mid level moisture.
Chances of precipitation were added to the Finger Lakes up into
CNY as there will be over 1000 J/kg of CAPE that will develop.
A subsidence inversion still in place from the upper level ridge
should keep the atmosphere mostly capped but with less smoke
today, there is at least a chance that the developing
instability will become great enough to overcome the capping in
isolated areas.

Tonight, with better low level moisture and still skies
remaining mostly clear, there is better odds of valley fog
developing. If we do get a few rain showers or thunderstorms to
form, then the fog will likely be much more widespread from rain
cooled and moistened outflow from the storms.

Tomorrow is looking warm and will feel a bit muggy with dew
points rising into the mid 60s. A surface front is moving into
the region in the late morning into early afternoon that will
help trigger showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wind
shear is not looking all that great, staying around 20 knots.
Surface based CAPE will likely get over 1000 J/kg and even may
approach 2000 J/kg depending on evapotranspiration. Forecast
soundings do have a good amount of dry air in the mid levels as
well as steep low level lapse rates below the lifted
condensation level. This is a favorable set up for microburst
and downburst so any storm that develops tomorrow with a taller
core will likely produce damaging wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A frontal boundary and area of low pressure will move through
the region Friday night and Saturday. Enough lift and moisture
look present for additional showers and thunderstorms through
this timeframe. PW values are modeled to rise to around 1.5
inches so heavy downpours and localized low end flood reports
can not be ruled out. Temperatures look to be in the 60`s and
70`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This frontal boundary looks to clear the region Saturday night.
However, any break looks short-lived Sunday as yet another frontal
boundary swings through the region Monday and Tuesday. Heavy
downpours look to be a concern given the lift and low instability
likely to be in place with any thunderstorms. Continued lows near 60
and highs in the 70`s. Not much temperature spread due to widespread
clouds through most of the period. Wednesday shows some promise for
improvement and a break from the rainfall. Instability looks fairly
meager most days with poor lapse rates and a only a few hundred
J/KG CAPE so severe thunderstorm chances potential is fairly
low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR into the afternoon hours Thursday. However, scattered
showers and possible thunderstorms will begin to develop with
the most widespread coverage in central NY from 19-23Z shifting
into KAVP closer to 00z Friday. Confidence still isn`t high
enough to narrow the time window and add in some TEMPOS for
thunderstorms. Outside any showers, fairly good agreement with
our data that ceilings will lower to at least MVFR tomorrow
night.

Outlook...

Thursday night... MVFR and IFR ceilings likely. Scattered
showers.

Friday through Saturday...Front in vicinity with waves of low
pressure will cause occasional showers and associated
restrictions. A chance for thunder as well, especially
afternoons. Best thunder chances will be Thursday night for NY
terminals and Friday for KAVP.

Sunday...Low pressure moving east with small chance of lingering
showers but improving conditions.

Monday...Potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MDP
NEAR TERM...AJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MWG