310
FXUS61 KCTP 230817
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
317 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Light mixed precipitation this morning; turning breezy tonight
* Potential for significant wintry mix Friday-Friday night
* Mild trend this weekend followed by sharply colder conditions
  and strong winds to start next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A surge of warm air advection to the southeast of sfc low
tracking across the Upper Great Lakes will result in a period of
mixed precip across CPA this morning. Hires model data and low
level thermal profiles favor a snow/mix/rain ptype transition
from southwest to northeast through the morning.

We expanded the winter wx advisory to account for ice glaze
potential across a broader area; best odds for an inch or 2 of
snow remains confined to the northeast zones from Potter/Tioga
through Sullivan into northern Schuylkill County.

Temperatures will rise above freezing in most areas by mid/late
morning with pockets of light rain/drizzle lingering into the
afternoon. Fcst max temps may be too warm in some areas given
the early day wetbulb effects and solid cloud cover.

Conditions dry out by this evening with winds increasing tonight
into early Wednesday morning. Tight pressure gradient/sfc pres
rises in response to deepening low offshore New England will
bring 30-40 mph wind gusts to the area late tonight. Model data
shows a wind gust max approaching advisory criteria centered
over the Poconos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure migrates over CPA Wednesday afternoon ending the
gusty winds and bringing a dry day for holiday travel.

Clouds increase into Wednesday night (Christmas Eve) as weak
shortwave dives southeast from the Midwest toward the Central
Appalachians. Model data indicates light mixed precip could
reach the forecast area in the 06-12Z Thu timeframe with the
best odds over the southwestern quadrant of the CWA.

The weather looks largely benign on Christmas Day with cloudy
skies and max temps +5-10F above the historical average. High
pressure ridge drifts over CPA Thursday night and channels down
the east side of the Appalachians, setting the stage for an
overrunning wintry mix event for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model and ensemble data show a solid consensus precip signal
for Friday as 0.25-0.50" mean QPF encounters/overruns a
retreating cold sector airmass. Confidence is increasing in a
significant wintry mix event Friday-Friday night. Temps will be
5 to 15F colder on Friday (vs. Thursday/Christmas Day).

Temperatures are projected to trend milder over the weekend -
peaking on Sunday 5-15 degrees above the historical average in
the 40-50F range.

An arctic blast is possible by Monday following the passage of
a strong cold front. There is also a signal for high winds
behind the front along with lake effect snow. Fcst highs for
Monday are 15 to 30 degrees colder than Sunday with wind chills
in the +/- single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clouds are continuing to thicken and precipitation has begun to
appear in radar reflectivity returns, however air at the surface
is incredibly dry, so it is unlikely anything is reaching the
surface as of right now. Once the moisture overcomes this dry
slot(around 08Z starting in the west) An initial area of light
snow will move through this evening, but remaining dry air in
the low levels should limit just how heavy the snow gets.

Restrictions will quickly develop as mixed precipitation enters
from the west after 08Z, though there is still quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding precip type at most TAF sites. After an
initial mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain at BFD, UNV, and
AOO, expect light freezing rain or freezing drizzle to become
the predominant ptype after sunrise. Model soundings show warmer
air reaching JST quicker, likely resulting in a quick
transition to plain rain. IPT has the best chance of seeing
steady snow with this system as they should stay coldest the
longest. MDT and LNS will likely see a few hours of rain or
snow, but it will be fairly light. Confidence in this forecast
is low with medium impacts expected and adjustments to precip
type and visibility will likely be needed.

Precipitation decreases in intensity after 18Z though drizzle,
low clouds, and reduced visibility will linger through the rest
of the day. A 45 knot low-level jet will move into southwest PA
during the afternoon resulting in a period of LLWS for JST, AOO,
and UNV.

Outlook...
Wed...Lingering restrictions in the west, otherwise VFR with
plenty of sunshine. Increasing clouds late.

Thu...Scattered rain showers, some FZRA possible.

Fri-Sat...Widespread -SN developing (with restrictions),
possibly changing to sleet or a brief period of -ZR Friday
night.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ004-
025>028-034-035.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ005-006-
010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen