021 FXUS61 KCTP 022144 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 544 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Dry weather expected through midweek with hazy sunshine from Canadian wildfires * Turning increasingly warmer and more humid later this week as the pattern shifts into summer mode * Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast from Thursday into the first full weekend of June && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Crazy rise in temp at BFD where it rose almost 30 degrees in just 3 hrs. Many other locations also popped up vry fast when the June sun hit them. Smoke to the left and right of us this morning. But the plume that was to the west of the CWA is diving southeastward, and should be overhead/centered on us this aftn. Have not adjusted temps for the aftn, but have adjusted dewpoints down a little, especially in the north and east where the dry air above this morning`s inversion should mix down. There is still some chc for the dewpoints to rise this aftn as all guidance has a rise of 5-10F for most locations. Prev... Mainly clear and unseasonably chilly start to what is likely the coldest morning until the Fall season. Several mesonet obs in McKean, Elk, and Warren County (along with a few additional well-known cold spots) have printed min temps in the 29-32F range. Fog in the river and stream valleys across the northwest Alleghenies will dissipate this morning as temperatures warmup quickly under hazy sunshine; this has also ended the frost threat and the advisory was allowed to expire. High pressure will provide the first of 3 dry days across CPA with highs from the mid 60s over the northern and western mountains to the low 70s elsewhere. HRRR vertically integrated smoke suggests hazy sunshine throughout the day which should lead to a vivid and vibrant sunset later this evening. Mainly clear to partly cloudy and not as cold tonight with min temps rising +10-20F night/night into the 45-55F range or +/- 3 degrees of early June climo. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Ridging at the surface and aloft migrating over CPA should ensure two more dry days to round out the short term period through midweek. We added haze to the wx grid on Tuesday based on a blend of the HRRR near-sfc smoke density/vertically integrated smoke and coordination with neighboring WFOs. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure sliding off to our east will allow for much warmer air to work its way into central PA for the middle of the week. Ensemble 850 mb temps in the 15 to 17 deg C range will support high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with a few locations potentially seeing highs break 90 degrees Wednesday afternoon. It is unclear how much smoke will be overhead on Wednesday and how much it will impact temperatures.The heat and humidity may be somewhat impactful (despite max heat index values only in the upper 80s and low 90s) given the early season ramp up following a very wet and relatively cool May; the lack of heat acclimation will also be a key factor. The HeatRisk forecast peaks in the moderate level which would support possible impacts in some health systems and heat- sensitive industries. Upper level ridging gradually slides eastward as low pressure west of the area moves closer to central Pennsylvania on Thursday. Surging PWATs and lowering heights ahead of this area of low pressure support showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning across northwest PA. As low-pressure approaches and better moisture spreads into the area Thursday afternoon, widespread rain showers appear increasingly likely as an associated cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will be slow moving and will likely be weakening as it moves in. While guidance suggests that CAPE will range from 500-1500 J/kg, deep layer shear of less than 30 knots should limit the potential for severe weather. Confidence in the forecast becomes lower after Friday, though some ensemble members along with much of the deterministic guidance show an area of low pressure developing along the frontal boundary and bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to much of the region on Saturday. The front finally pushes east of Pennsylvania on Sunday and upper level ridging attempts to build in behind it, bringing a period of drier weather with seasonable temperatures to end the weekend. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Late afternoon update. Winds a bit stronger than expected, minor adjustments made. Earlier discussion below. High pressure will provide the region with mainly clear skies, dry weather, and VFR conditions into Tuesday and Wednesday. A few high clouds are around to start the morning today, and we could see scattered high clouds moving across central PA this afternoon, otherwise it will be mostly clear. A plume of Canadian wildfire smoke will be injected into the upper atmosphere over the Pennsylvania airspace this evening and into Tuesday. So far there has not been any surface level impacts from the smoke, mainly just hazy skies. Additional mixing on Tuesday could bring smoke lower into the atmosphere, but surface impacts still remain unlikely. Outlook... Tue-Wed...VFR expected. Thu...Potential brief restrictions in SHRA/TSRA NW. Fri...Numerous SHRA/TSRA, esp NW. Brief reductions to MVFR and IFR in the TSRA. && .CLIMATE... The low of 28 degrees at Bradford this Monday morning broke the old record of 30 degrees set in 1966. More information below. May 2025 Precipitation Rankings Site 2025 | Wettest May on Record ----------------------------------------------------------- Harrisburg* 10.02" Wettest | 9.71" in 1989 (previous) Williamsport 7.18" 7th Wettest | 9.91" in 1919 Altoona* 7.34" Wettest | 7.31" in 1960 (previous) State College 7.56" T-7th Wettest | 9.45" in 1894 (* denotes that May 2025 set a new record in precipitation in their respective locations. The previous record remains listed under the "Wettest May on Record" column.) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Bauco/NPB AVIATION...Martin/Bowen CLIMATE...NPB