016 FXUS66 KPQR 120418 AAB AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 918 PM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Updated Marine and Aviation Discussion .SYNOPSIS...Hot weather continues through Tuesday under strong high pressure, with valley highs near or above 100 degrees in some locations. Poor overnight temperature recovery is expected tonight, with lows only falling into the mid to upper 60s for most, and even near 70 degrees in urban areas. Cooler air arrives Wednesday as onshore flow strengthens and winds shift west northwesterly, bringing more seasonal temperatures through late week. By Friday and into the weekend, a developing fall- like trough will bring measurable rainfall and breezier conditions. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Tuesday Night...Strong high pressure remains firmly in place over the eastern Pacific, keeping skies clear and temperatures well above average. Tuesday will remain hot, with highs again in the upper 90s to low 100s. While the ridge begins to shift slightly westward into the open Pacific, any cooling will be negligible as the upper level airmass will remain around 22-23C. The Columbia River Gorge will see increasing winds Tuesday night into Wednesday, with gusts up to 30 mph possible as pressure gradients tighten. Elsewhere, stronger onshore flow will begin to take hold late Tuesday, bringing the first signs of cooling and helping overnight lows drop further into the 60s and into the upper 50s in cooler rural locations. Otherwise, coastal fog and low clouds may develop early Tuesday morning. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Wednesday marks the start of a notable cooldown as high pressure is replaced by upper-level troughing over western Canada. This will bring a shift in low-level winds from northwesterly to more west northwesterly, enhancing the marine push inland. Highs will be 10-15 degrees cooler than Tuesday for many areas, with the greatest change felt across the north. HeatRisk will ease back into the minor category, and overnight lows will return to more comfortable values. Thursday through the weekend, inland highs should hold near or slightly below seasonal norms - generally in the upper 70s to low 80s, with coastal highs in the 60s to low 70s. Patchy morning coastal fog and low clouds may develop Thursday morning before burning off by midday. Rain chances increase early Friday into Saturday as a deeper, fall-like trough digs into the northeast Pacific. This system will shift winds to a more southerly to southwesterly direction Friday and into the weekend. Widespread measurable rain is possible, with ensemble guidance showing a 40-60% chance of a wetting rain for the north coast and southwest Washington, about 45% for Portland, and around 25% near Eugene. Saturday will have lingering showers, and while the overall setup is not favorable for thunderstorms, a few lightning strikes cannot be entirely ruled out - though confidence is currently low. By Sunday, the trough weakens and moves east, allowing temperatures to return to near seasonal norms under drier conditions. ~Hall && .AVIATION...Widespread VFR conditions under clear skies for inland locations through the TAF period. The primary challenge through the overnight hours will be the redevelopment of IFR/LIFR fog and low stratus south to north along the coast. There is a 50%-80% probability of the lowered flight conditions between K6S2 and KONP. These conditions are currently being observed at K6S2 and are slowly spreading towards KONP with a like start time around 08Z-10Z Tuesday. KAST could also see lowered flight conditions but with only a 15-25% probability. Lowered flight conditions along the coast are expected to lift towards VFR/MVFR around 20Z-22Z Tuesday. Expect generally north/northwest winds under 10 kt through the forecast period. Important note: Abnormally hot temperatures are forecasted through Tuesday afternoon, be aware of high density altitude concerns (and reduced aircraft performance as a result). PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds under 10 kt. /42 && .MARINE...Evening Update: Issued a Dense Fog Advisory for all inner waters and the Columbia River Bar as visibilities could fall towards 1 NM or less through Tuesday morning. A ridge of high pressure overhead continues to maintain northerly winds across the coastal waters into Tuesday and Wednesday. That said, these winds gradually weaken as time goes on but still will gust in the 15-22 knot range during the afternoon hours, especially across the outer waters. Expect seas around 7-9 ft at 10-11 seconds through Tuesday into Tuesday night as well with northwesterly swell. Looking head a pattern change is in store on Thursday as a low pressure in the northeast Pacific shifts winds more southwesterly. We`ll need to watch southerly winds on Friday into Saturday as guidance now suggests a 30-40% chance for Small Craft conditions - an increase from previous forecast cycles. -Schuldt && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ104-105-108. Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ109>125. WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ202-204-208. Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ205>207- 209-210. PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210-251>253. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland