253
FXUS66 KPQR 021511 AAA
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
811 AM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Updated marine discussion and PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

.SYNOPSIS...A weak shortwave will pass over the region this
afternoon though no impacts are expected. Expect slightly warmer
temperatures and lower humidity through the day. General ridging
through the remainder of the week. Warmer towards the weekend
with hot temperatures, potentially reaching 90 degrees F, on
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Wednesday Night...Not much to write
home about in the short term as a general area of high pressure
sits over the Northeast Pacific. Aloft, a very weak shortwave
trough drops down which will likely increase high level clouds -
especially along the coast. Temperatures will remain in the mid
to upper 70s inland and the 60s along the coast. Around the
Greater Portland-Vancouver Metro, temperatures are forecast are
expected to be the warmest with the 10th percentile at 77
degrees F, and the 90th at 80 degrees F. Overall, temperatures
will greatly depend on cloud cover. A few degrees warmer on
Tuesday as the ridge builds.

Northerly flow persists through mid-week with 850 mb
temperatures around 10-12 degrees C on Wednesday. There is a
little discontinuity in the models as the GFS shows a deeper
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. In contrast, the ECMWF
is not realizing this pattern as much. 1000 mb - 700 mb humidity
shows an influx of moister air and the NBM suggests around a 20%
chance of rain along the north Oregon and south Washington
Coast. Due to the northwesterly flow, much of the area will be
rain shadowed and will have drier air mix down to the surface.
With that said, because the ridge is fairly anchored, it is
going to take a stronger system to really combat it. Therefore,
impacts will be minimal. -Muessle


.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...High pressure intensifies
through the remainder of the week with a thermal trough forming
at the surface. With each day that passes, temperatures will
warm by a few degrees. Confidence is lower for temperatures over
the weekend but higher confidence on Thursday in temperatures
ranging between 82-87 degrees C in the Greater Portland-
Vancouver Metro, 84-87 degrees C in the Upper Hood River Valley,
a few degrees cooler in the southern Willamette Valley and the
upper 60s along the coast.

The big day that we will continue to watch is on Sunday. At this
point, the NBM has increased the high temperature a few degrees
from earlier runs. The thermal trough will deepen and cause
winds to shift to the northeast. Overnight temperatures on
Saturday into Sunday will be higher than normal which will
create a spring board for highs on Sunday. Right now, the NBM is
suggesting quite a range for highs with the 10th percentile
around 75 degrees at the Portland Airport and similar
temperatures through the Willamette Valley and southern
Washington. The 90th percentile is significantly higher with
areas nearing 100 degrees F. The coastal areas are also seeing
a 20 degree spread between the 10th-90th percentile. Confidence
is still incredibly low in regards to this system as it easily
could shift if winds stay more northerly or shift to the
northwest. However, with these kinds of pattern, we could see
a heat risk to moderate. Will continue to monitor though as
this forecast has a lot of room to change over the next 7 days.
-Muessle

&&

.AVIATION...Northwest flow aloft today with predominately VFR
conditions and mostly clear skies. Marine stratus along the north
coast will maintain MVFR CIGs near KAST through this morning. By
the early afternoon, increased mixing will lift marine stratus
as northwest winds increase again, with gusts up to 20-25 kt.
Marine stratus will likely return to the coast by 06z Tuesday.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR expected through the TAF period under
mostly clear skies. Northwest winds around 4-6 kt expected to
increase by this afternoon with gusts up to 18-20 kt. /DH

&&

.MARINE...Not much change as a summer time pattern has settled in
with high pressure persisting offshore through the week, and a
thermally induced low pressure trough remains over the northern
California/southern Oregon coast. North to northwesterly winds
will continue across the coastal waters with diurnally driven wind
gusts easing somewhat by mid-week. Expect wind gusts to increase
again this afternoon as pressure gradients tighten, peaking around
25-30 kt through Monday evening. Similar conditions again
Tuesday, though pressure gradients slacken a bit. Winds continue
to ease slightly mid to late week, with wind gusts more likely
peaking around 20-25 kt. For now, have extended the Small Craft
Advisory through Tuesday evening.

The general sea state will continued to be dominated by northerly
wind waves and a fresh northwesterly swell with significant wave
heights around 8 to 11 ft with a period of around 8-9 seconds.
Expect seas to remain steep and choppy. This will bring a chance
for Hazardous Seas criteria being met due to wave steepness,
mainly across the outer waters, through Tuesday morning. Seas
gradually subside to around 6 to 7 ft by early Wednesday.

Have also issued a Small Craft Advisory for the Columbia River Bar
from mid Monday afternoon through Monday evening for northwesterly
wind gusts up to 25 kt. -DH/TK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ210.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ251>253-
     271>273.
&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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