007 FXUS66 KPQR 170350 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 850 PM PDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Updated aviation discussion... .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will allow dry conditions and above normal temperatures to persist through the end of the work week as our stretch of pleasant weather continues. A series of disturbances will bring closer to average temperatures for the weekend and into early next week along with a chance for light showers. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Friday Night...Benign conditions continue across the region as with above average temperatures through the remainder of the work week. A short wave passing east of the Cascades is supporting N/NW flow aloft but will shift eastward overnight, allowing for an amplified ridge to move onshore across the West Coast and PacNW. A thermal across northern California and southern Oregon is expected to build northward, supported by the ridge and aiding in the warm temps to end the week. Thursday temps are expected to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s inland and low to mid 60s along the coast. Probabilities for temps above 70 inland range from 40-80%, highest around the Portland metro. Friday will be even warmer inland with temps in the mid to upper 70s with temps similar to Thursday along the coast. Probabilities for reaching 70 inland are greater than 70% and range from 20-40% in the Willamette Valley except around the Portland metro with probs much higher with a 50-70% chance. Temps on Thursday and Friday should be around 5 degrees above average along the coast and around 10-15 degrees above average inland. Winds start out with weak onshore flow but are expected to turn offshore overnight as the thermal low builds northward. Expect northerly to northwesterly winds in the lowland and easterly downslope winds on the west side of the Cascades and Coast Range. -Batz && .LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...The pattern shifts as we move into the weekend. A series of short wave disturbances are expected to move across the region shifting the short wave ridge east of the Cascades. Significant precipitation is not expected through the weekend but light showers are possible, mainly along the north OR/south WA coasts and north of the Portland metro. Accumulations of a few hundredths will be possible. Temperatures drop close to normal, possible a degree or two below normal for the weekend and into early next week. -Batz && .AVIATION...High pressure persists over the area, bringing prevailing clear skies and VFR conditions at most terminals. North to northwesterly winds most under 10 kt will persist at inland terminals, with the exception of near 10 kt and gusts up to 20 kt around 00Z Friday for some terminals. Coastal terminals will see a similar trend of winds through the TAF period, with the only exception/difference being that winds will shift easterly between 06-18Z Thursday. This shift to easterly winds at the coastal and easterly flow aloft over the region is a result of a thermal trough setting up over the area. Offshore wind along the coast will bring drier air and make it difficult for low stratus to form (around a 20% chance for MVFR CIGs). For the Willamette Valley, easterly winds aloft (FL010 to FL020) will increase while surface winds stay northerly, resulting in potential LLWS between 06-16Z Thursday. PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds around 5-10 kt, highest in the afternoon. A thermal trough begins to build overnight, increasing easterly winds aloft (around FL010 to FL020). With surface winds expected to stay northerly, there will be potential for LLWS between 06-16Z Thursday. ~Hall && .MARINE...A thermal trough developing along the coast tonight will lead to northeasterly winds across the waters around 10-15 kt. The currently Small Craft Advisory is expected to drop for most marine zones late this evening as winds weaken and seas gradually fall. An exception would be zone PZZ273, where pressure gradients will be tight enough to support northeasterly wind gusts up to 25 kt through early Thursday morning. Seas around 8-10 ft at 12 seconds will fall to 6-7 ft at 11 seconds by Thursday evening. High pressure offshore will maintain northerly to northwesterly winds through early next week. -Alviz && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251>253- 271-272. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland