793
FXUS66 KMFR 022349
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
449 PM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Section.


&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z TAFs...VFR prevails this evening area wide.
Northerly winds are gusty, generally 20-30 kt at most TAF sites,
though North Bend could reach 35 kt. Winds ease after sunset later
this evening and during the overnight. This will lead to weak
onshore flow near the coast and this could allow MVFR marine
stratus to develop. Best chance is along the coast north of Cape
Blanco, including at KOTH. These will be short-lived with VFR
returning early Tuesday morning. Expect gusty northerly or
northwesterly breezes to develop again Tuesday afternoon. -Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 233 PM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows clear skies over the entire
forecast area. Skies will remain clear onto tonight, although like
this morning, low clouds that do form will be confined to the
portions of the Coquille Basin. Surface analysis shows a strong
thermal trough along the coast. This has resulted in gusty northeast
breezes near and at the ridges in southwest oregon and western
Siskiyou county. Additionally, relative humidities are low in the
above mentioned areas.

The thermal trough won`t move much this evening and tonight,
therefore gusty northeast breezes are likely to continue through
tonight.

An upper trough is moving south off the California coast. At the
same time, a dry northwest flow will persist through at least
Thursday. This will keep conditions dry with a gradual warm up in
afternoon temperatures for the interior.

There`s strong evidence suggesting the strong upper ridge that is
west of the forecast area will gradually move east towards the end
of the week into early next week. This will likely result in
continued dry weather with afternoon temperatures heating up for the
interior. Afternoon temperatures for the interior westside valleys
could flirt near the tripe digit mark Sunday and next Monday.

There`s sufficient evidence to suggest the dry and hot weather may
only be a 2-3 day event with the ensemble means suggesting weak upper
troughing to return the latter part of next week into Fathers Day
weekend. Stay tuned. -Petrucelli

AVIATION...02/18z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected through this
cycle. Main item of interest will be the breezy wind speeds today
under mostly clear skies. However, will need to monitor the
marine push tonight as we may see clouds increase along the coast
which could bring MVFR conditions (~20%), but confidence was
higher to keep conditions VFR at this time.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 200 PM Monday, June 02, 2025...Through Tuesday
morning, strong northerly gales and very steep seas continue from
Coos Bay southward while steep seas continue to the north. Through
tomorrow morning, the probability of gusts 41 knots or greater is
nearly 100% for areas roughly 5 nm to 50 nm out and south of Gold
Beach. By Tuesday afternoon, a combination of gale gusts and very
steep and hazardous seas will continue across waters south of
Cape Blanco, with steep seas to the north. Gusty northerly winds
and steep to very steep seas with areas of gale gusts could last
through the remainder of the week, especially our southern waters
where the strongest winds will persist through this stretch.

We may start to finally see these wind-driven seas ease by Sunday
and into early next week as the thermal trough relaxes across the
area. Until then, this week will remain fairly active with strong
northerly winds persisting.

FIRE WEATHER...With generally stable atmospheric conditions
interrupted by weak fronts, daytime relative humidities are forecast
to be between 15-25% east of the Cascades and between 20%-40% for
inland areas west of the Cascades. These weak fronts can still bring
breezy or gusty winds without bringing precipitation, especially
east of the Cascades. Also, with the thermal trough situated
along the coast, gusty northeast winds are also likely near and at
the ridges into Wednesday night along the coastal mountains in
southwest Oregon and western Siskiyou county. While current fuel
conditions do not represent significant wildfire concerns, the
combination of dry and windy conditions can create conditions for
small fires to quickly spread. Human activity has already caused
multiple fires in the area. Please use extra care when
participating in activities that may create sparks or embers.
These can ignite fires that can quickly grow out of control,
especially around abundant dry or unmaintained fuels.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for
     PZZ350-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday
     for PZZ356-376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370.

     Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$

MAS/MAP/JWG