075 FXUS66 KPQR 260445 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 945 PM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS...More seasonal temps expected today through Sunday as onshore flow is enhanced by increased upper level troughing. Another warm up is expected early to mid next week, with thunderstorms looking possible along the Cascades during the evening hours each day. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday Night...Little to no change to the forecast through the weekend. Closer to seasonable conditions expected this afternoon through Sunday as a large upper level trough crosses the region. This will equate to inland highs closer to seasonal norms in the upper 70s to low 80s through Sunday. Coastal areas will continue to be impacted by abundant marine stratus through the period, with diurnal intrusions into the inland valleys becoming increasing likely as the marine layer deepens and onshore pressure gradients increase. Expect another solid marine layer to push into the coastal areas late this evening into the overnight. HREF guidance is suggesting another decent chance (40-70%) that stratus will develop along the Cascade foothills and backbuild into the Willamette Valley between 3-6 AM Saturday. Any clouds that develop inland are expected to dissipate by late Saturday morning. -Batz .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Guidance continues to suggest temperatures rebound back into the upper 80s to low 90s Monday through Wednesday as ridging builds across the Great Basin and into the PacNW. Probabilities for inland valleys to reach 90F on Monday are modest at 10-40% but increase Tuesday and Wednesday to 50-80% for most locations. A significant heat event is unlikely at this time given the relatively small temperature spread heading into next week. A deepening upper level low is also likely to set up off the British Columbia coast, though there is disagreement among the models where exactly the center of the low sets up. Depending on its location, south to southeast flow could develop across the area or at least a portion of the area, bringing monsoonal moisture and potential for thunderstorms. Persistent southerly flow will help increase PWAT values to 1.0-1.2 inches east of the coast range. These values are 120-160% of normal for this time of year with the larger anomalies across the Cascades of Lane and Linn Counties. Disturbances embedded within the upper level flow will help support destabilization across central Oregon and to a lesser extent over the Cascade crest. For now, have introduced a 15-20% chance for the far eastern portions of Lane and Linn Counties Monday and Tuesday evenings. Agreement and exact details become murkier into the middle of next week but the threat for thunderstorms along the crest remains. A stronger embedded shortwave is expected to move through the upper levels across northern California and Oregon which would bring better large-scale accent and possibly greater thunderstorm coverage Wednesday and Thursday evenings. Models also show potentially weak steering flow which could lead to slow storm motion and localized heavy rains. -Batz && .AVIATION...Along the coast, marine stratus has redeveloped, bringing mixed MVFR/IFR conditions to coastal terminals. Low cigs are likely to continue through the overnight period until 18-20z Sat when conditions may improve as increased mixing lowers cloud cover while raising cloud bases. Brief periods of restricted vis within mist cannot be ruled out near dawn, especially at KONP. North to northwest winds at 5 kt or less continue through tonight, building to 5-10 kt out of the northwest after 18-20z Sat. Inland, VFR conditions beneath largely clear skies are likely to continue through at least 12z Sat, after which chances for MVFR cigs increase. Guidance remains divided on how far inland low clouds encroach, but given large-scale support for a stronger marine push, have maintained a bullish outlook at Portland-area and southern Willamette Valley terminals for MVFR cigs from 13-14z through 16-18z Sat. Meanwhile, central and northern Willamette Valley terminals (KHIO/KUAO/KSLE/KMMV) remain less likely to see sufficient coverage of low clouds to yield MVFR cigs. Light winds of less than 5 kt through much of the overnight period will build out of the northwest at 5-10 kt after 18-21z Sat. PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions likely to continue through at least 12z Sat. Chances increase by 13-14z Sat for MVFR cigs as marine stratus surges up the Columbia River, although confidence in low cigs is only moderate. Have continued to lean slightly more aggressive on cloud coverage given large-scale support for a marine push similar to or stronger than Friday morning, which saw MVFR cigs from 12-16z. Any low clouds will mix out by 16-18z Sat, returning to VFR by midday. Northwest flow continues at 5 kt or less overnight, building to 5-10 kt after 16-18z Sat. -Picard && .MARINE...Fairly benign conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week as high pressure near the surface persists overhead. This`ll keep winds predominately out of the north to northwest with afternoon/evening gusts around 10-15 knots through Sunday before increasing a touch into the 15-20 knot range by the middle of next week. Background swells remain unimpressive through the weekend into the middle of next week as well. Thus, the likelihood for Small Craft advisory conditions going forward a low. It`s is again worth mentioning there will be some strong ebb currents through the Columbia River bar at times through the weekend (e.g. Saturday 6-7am) which may lead to locally choppy seas. -Schuldt && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland