422
FXUS66 KMFR 280830
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
130 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Seasonal weather continues through the week, with a slight 5-degree
  warmup on Friday.

* East side areas may see early morning smoke accumulation, with
  afternoon breezes helping to clear that smoke out.

* Gusty winds possible over the coastal waters, the coast, and
  some inland areas this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Quiet, fairly typical summer weather continues for
southern Oregon and far northern California. Southwest flow
remains in control aloft, between persistent troughing over the
northeastern Pacific and a very resilient and dominant ridge
centered over the Four Corners region. This flow will keep the
area dry for the foreseeable future, but there are a few minor
details of interest through the week ahead.

Calm overnight conditions may allow for morning smoke accumulation
in Lake and Klamath counties as well as parts of Modoc County.
Daytime westerly breezes look to be enough to prevent constant
accumulation, but this pattern does look to continue through at
least Wednesday.

A few shortwaves are expected to traverse the steady southwest
flow aloft, but most will pass just to our south. The strongest
impulse will pass directly overhead Thursday, and despite the
ridge blocking the preferred moisture transport vectors, there
will be a slight increase in atmospheric moisture. A few ensemble
members are resolving isolated thunderstorm development east of
the Cascades as the impulse passes on Thursday afternoon, but these
members represent only about 5% of the grand suite, so while
possible, thunderstorm activity is very unlikely.

Daytime highs will remain near seasonal norms across the area,
with a slight 5-degree warmup expected on Friday. Forecast
temperatures have crept up a degree or two, with parts of the
Rogue and Shasta valleys possibly hitting 100 degrees. With
overnight lows staying cool and daytime highs decreasing over the
weekend, there`s no expectation of any heat headlines.

A broad upper level trough and associated dry cold front is
expected to pass to the north of the area over the weekend.
Atmospheric moisture remains too low for any precipitation, but
the front will produce gusty winds as it passes, particularly
over the East Side, in coastal areas, and over elevated terrain,
but much will depend on the time of day the front passes, and
therefore how much momentum can be mixed down to the surface.
Depending on the wind`s orientation, the eastern Rogue Valley
(Shady Cove to Gold Hill to Ashland) as well as the Shasta Valley
may see gusty winds as well.


&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z TAFs...VFR will prevail through the TAF period
for most of the area. The exception will be the coast and coastal
valleys, where marine stratus is resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions.
These will likely persist well into the morning, then clear to VFR
by midday. Wildfire smoke impacts will be limited to areas north of
roughly Crater Lake/Chemult/Christmas Valley. Expect a similar
pattern for the next several days with gusty winds developing in the
afternoons, then easing after sunset. -BPN/BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Tuesday, July 28, 2026...Light winds
early this morning will shift to the north and increase today.
Relatively calm mixed seas will become increasingly dominated by
wind seas. By tonight, winds will increase and seas become steep
enough south of Cape Blanco to warrant a Small Craft Advisory that
will then persist through late Wednesday night.

On Saturday, a low pressure system passing to the north may bring
very strong northerly winds over area waters as it tightens the
gradient and enhances the thermal trough. Although the timing and
strength of these winds are uncertain, the latest models are showing
a high likelihood of gales and very steep seas, and nearly a 30
percent chance of storm force gusts by early next week. -TAD/BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to
     5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$