917 FXUS64 KOUN 140007 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 707 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 229 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Chance of showers and storms continue through this weekend. - Temperatures rising above average through the middle of next week with heat indices near to above 100 degrees. && .UPDATE... Issued at 707 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Will be updating the forecast to increase POPs tonight across the area. Many of the synoptic and convective-allowing models suggest that precipitation chances are higher than what the NBM has given us with the potential of storms or a storm complex moving southeast through the area. Although the location of the storms varies some from model to model, the highest potential seems to be in north central Oklahoma which seems reasonable given the surface trough in the area and very high mid-June dewpoints advecting upslope through western Kansas. 00Z dewpoints at DDC, GCK and GAG are at least 95th percentile for mid-June. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Thunderstorm activity from this morning has diminished this afternoon with the departing upper low. Ridging aloft is building in the wake of the upper low across the southwest CONUS. Lingering cloud cover from this morning`s convection has limited daytime heating across portions of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. Otherwise temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s to 90s, with the warmest temperatures across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Despite weak forcing aloft, there is decent instability expected to be present this afternoon, where temperatures warm, with a potential for a few afternoon storms to pop up. A strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out, but chances remain low. Diurnal convection will develop this afternoon/evening along the higher terrain across New Mexico/southeast Colorado and into the Southern High Plains. Weak northwesterly flow aloft will bring the storms east-southeast across West Texas as they develop into a potential MCS this evening. Heading into the late evening hours tonight and overnight, western Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas may see some strong to severe storms from the decaying MCS. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. By the early morning hours of Saturday, additional moist warm air advection showers and storms may develop across portions of western and central Oklahoma. Elevated instability and a weak disturbance along the ridge aloft will support strong winds and small hail. See short term discussion below for additional Saturday morning storm potential. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 These early morning storms are likely to persist through the morning hours from north to south near and east of the I-35 corridor before weakening and decaying. Otherwise, warm summer- like temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s across the area. A few locations may even break triple digits across western Oklahoma and into western north Texas with a warm downsloping airmass. Increased low-level moisture with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s will give way to heat index values nearing 100-105 degrees, especially across western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Any lingering cloud cover could inhibit diurnal convection, but weak capping during the afternoon will likely be eroded with the hot surface temperatures. If a storm were to develop during the afternoon hours, a strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out with large hail and damaging winds. Diurnal convection on the higher terrain and north-northwesterly flow aloft will bring the chance for storms during the late evening and overnight hours Saturday night into Sunday morning across northern Oklahoma and southward into central and southern Oklahoma. Storms will likely grow upscale into an MCS by the time they reach the forecast area with the main hazards being damaging winds and large hail. Sunday is another rinse and repeat day with decaying morning convection and a return of storms overnight with the north- northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will be similar to Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to 90s and heat index values near 100- 105 degrees across portions of western north Texas and into southern Oklahoma. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Rising mid-level heights and a strengthening low-level thermal ridge are expected by early next week as the mid-level ridge becomes elongated to the northeast into the Southern Plains. This synoptic-scale pattern will result in a gradual rise in temperatures through early next week with many locations forecast to have heat indices in the 100s deg F. The chance for rain should almost decrease during this period. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level ridge may become suppressed to the southwest as a trough approaches the Plains. This may allow a cold front to advance southward with a chance for showers and thunderstorms by midweek. Mahale && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 The main aviation issue will be the potential of showers and thunderstorms to move across the area overnight and into Saturday morning. Otherwise there will be some potential of locally MVFR ceilings, especially southeast, but the probabilities currently look too low for a TEMPO group. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 71 91 72 90 / 20 20 10 20 Hobart OK 71 97 73 97 / 10 10 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 73 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 Gage OK 66 93 70 95 / 20 10 20 10 Ponca City OK 69 89 69 88 / 20 20 30 20 Durant OK 73 90 74 91 / 10 10 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...26