594
FXUS64 KOUN 161750
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1150 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1148 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

 - Patchy to areas of fog/dense fog possible late tonight into
   Wednesday morning.

 - A dry forecast with warmer than average temperatures each day.

 - Monitoring fire weather potential for Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Mid/high clouds will continue to move across the area this afternoon
with skies becoming mostly sunny/sunny in many locations.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s this
afternoon. However, if clouds are slower to clear out/thin, then
temperatures could be impacted most likely in eastern/southeastern
parts of the fa where clouds would linger the longest.

Models show a weak sfc low and associated front moving across parts
of the fa tonight. This will lead to light winds across the area
tonight. There is a potential for fog, possibly some dense fog,
development later tonight into Wednesday morning. Several models
show areas of fog developing in a band from SW to NE across the fa.
DESI shows a 60% or greater probability of visibility less than 1/2
mile in parts of the area as well. However, where exactly these low
visibilities develop will likely be somewhat dependent on the
position of the front with moisture potentially pooling ahead of the
boundary. With the uncertainty of this area, will not issue a dense
fog advisory at this time but definitely something later shifts will
need to keep an eye on. There is also the potential for some
freezing fog tonight into Wednesday morning but is dependent on how
far northwest the fog develops which once again could be highly
dependent on the frontal position when temperatures reach or drop
below freezing.

Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 20s in NW OK to
the low 40s in south central OK where dewpoints are expected to be
higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

The fog could linger throughout the morning hours Wednesday but is
expected to eventually clear as southerly winds return and speeds
increase. The temperature forecast Wednesday could be somewhat
dependent on how fast the fog/stratus dissipates but another
relatively mild day is expected Wednesday with highs ranging from
the upper 50s to the mid 60s. These forecast highs are approximately
10 degrees F above average give or take a few degrees.

Models show an upper trough moving across the northern Plains into
the Midwest Wednesday night into Thursday. This system will cause a
cold front to move across the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
The airmass behind this front is not overly cold with Thursday highs
expected to be relatively similar to Wednesday. However, breezy
north winds are expected behind the front late Wednesday night
through at least Thursday morning with drier air moving into the
region. The breezy north winds are expected to combine with the
drier air and dry vegetation to create elevated fire weather
conditions across at least western OK and western north TX
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Weak troughing from Thursdays system will be moving out with near
zonal milder Pacific-based upper flow.  A return of south winds on
Friday will advect warmer air with mild yet very unseasonably warm
air with highs in the 70s possible on Saturday.  Southwest Oklahoma
may come close to breaking or tying a record.  Another system
training along the Canadian/U.S. borders will push another dry cold
front through our area on Saturday although models inconsistent with
the timing with a faster GFS solution aggressively pushing it
through during the afternoon to the evening hours with the slower
ECMWF solution.  Very dry and unseasonably warm air could increase
the fire danger risk across western north Texas on Saturday
afternoon with gusty southwest pre-frontal winds. With the surface
high over the Upper Midwest Region, there could be a moderate cooler
air mass coming in Saturday night with MinTs down to the 30s across
much of our area and perhaps a 10 degree cooldown for Sunday
afternoon yet still climatically warmer than average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

High clouds will become more scattered through the afternoon into
tonight, with low stratus and fog then expected late tonight into
Wednesday morning, centered mainly along the I-44/I-35 corridors.
IFR and potentially LIFR ceilings and vis are possible at times
tomorrow morning before conditions improve to VFR by late morning
or early afternoon. Winds will be generally light through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  37  59  46  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         33  61  42  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  39  62  45  63 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           29  62  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     32  58  43  56 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         44  63  53  64 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...08