035 FXUS64 KOUN 130719 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 219 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 218 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this morning. - Low chance of showers and storms continue through this weekend. - Temperatures rising above average through the middle of next week with heat indices near to above 100 degrees. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Isentropic ascent/warm air advection augmented by a low-level jet (~35 knots at 925 mb) will result in chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms across northwest into central Oklahoma early this morning. The most intense thunderstorms may produce some small hail given the ~1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. This activity will generally move to the south-southeast this morning. By this afternoon, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with daytime heating in a moist (i.e., precipitable water values >1.5") and a weakly capped environment, especially for locations near and east of I-35. This area will be on the western periphery of an upper-level low centered across southern Missouri/northern Arkansas. Any thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon should be diurnally-driven and should weaken by this evening. Given the magnitude of instability, any storms that develop could be strong to perhaps severe with a threat for hail and gusty winds (especially from wet downbursts). By late this evening into overnight hours, a decaying mesoscale convective complex (MCS) is forecast to approach western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western north Texas from the High Plains. The remnants may impact areas near the 100th meridian before dissipating. In addition, isentropic ascent/warm air advection may result in additional showers and thunderstorms across eastern to perhaps central Oklahoma toward sunrise. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 By Saturday and Sunday, Oklahoma and north Texas will be east of a ~595 dam mid-level ridge centered across the southwest U.S. With a general weakness/lowered heights across the Southern Plains and a moist, weakly capped environment, there will be a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms. There will be the potential for both daytime, diurnally-driven convection and remnant complexes from the northerly flow aloft. Any thunderstorms that develop could become strong to severe with a threat for hail and gusty winds given the moist, highly unstable air mass. Temperatures should gradually rise to above-average with the Southern Plains on the eastern periphery of a low-level thermal ridge. Temperatures across southwest Oklahoma/western north Texas may approach 100 deg F with generally 90s deg F elsewhere. Combined with a moist air mass (i.e., dew points in the upper 60s and 70s deg), heat index values are forecast to reach 105 deg F across parts of the area. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Rising mid-level heights and a strengthening low-level thermal ridge are expected by early next week as the mid-level ridge becomes elongated to the northeast into the Southern Plains. This synoptic-scale pattern will result in a gradual rise in temperatures through early next week with many locations forecast to have heat indices in the 100s deg F. The chance for rain should almost decrease during this period. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level ridge may become suppressed to the southwest as a trough approaches the Plains. This may allow a cold front to advance southward with a chance for showers and thunderstorms by midweek. Mahale && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 While the chance of showers at any of the airports is too low to include a PROB30 group, there is some signal for isolated showers or storms to develop from northwest into central Oklahoma overnight, so there is at least a low (20%) potential for showers/storms at some of the TAF sites. The MVFR ceilings will become more widespread overnight across the eastern portion of the forecast area, with some locally IFR ceilings. The ceilings should lift later in the morning after sunrise. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 89 72 93 72 / 40 20 10 10 Hobart OK 96 71 98 73 / 10 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 94 73 97 76 / 10 10 0 10 Gage OK 94 67 95 69 / 10 20 0 20 Ponca City OK 85 68 90 69 / 10 10 10 20 Durant OK 89 73 91 74 / 20 20 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...26