592 FXUS64 KOUN 101059 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 559 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 556 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 - Low (30%) chance for storms in western north Texas this morning and again tonight. - More widespread showers and storms will occur Wednesday and likely again on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 June is finally starting to act a little more like June around here, starting with the weakening MCS that is rolling eastward along the Llano Estacado early this morning. Consensus has the rainfall probabilities at about 30% in western north Texas early this morning, which some cloud-to-ground lightning risk essentially marking the main risk. As the MCS decays toward daybreak, its remnant MCV will remain largely stationary near/just west of our area today. This will lead to a rather nebulous surface pattern with only weak lee troughing and light southwest surface winds. In other words, it will be a pretty classic June day with temperatures warming into the upper 80s/near 90 across much of the area. Rain/storm chances will remain confined to western north Texas during the day in the more immediate presence of the MCV. The pattern won`t change much throughout the early part of the night. The primary driver of change appears to be the development and subsequent decay of another MCS in the southern High Plains tonight. This will serve to amplify the MCV into a full-on cutoff low. With a mid-latitude jet streak traversing the Northern Plains, the cutoff low will want to wander northeastward toward it, and this advance into an environment characterized by high boundary-layer moisture will lead to the development of showers and weak storms just before daybreak. Meister && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 The aforementioned MCV/cutoff low will travel northeastward into our area during the day on Wednesday. Although surface heating will not be overly impressive, mid-60s dewpoints and mid-80s temperatures will suffice to allow 1,000-1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop. Deep- layer shear will be weak, so storms that develop will likely take on single/multicell characteristics. This activity will spread northward from southern Oklahoma into central Oklahoma in the afternoon, potentially accompanied by an ever-expanding outflow boundary. Cooler temperatures are in the forecast for the whole CWA, but especially the folks who experience a stronger/earlier OFB passage. Predictability with sub-synoptic-scale features such as cutoff lows is inherently lower than with larger-scale features. With that said, the signal seems to be for the cutoff low to open up and lift northeastward a bit. The net result if this was to occur would be that afternoon rain/storm chances will migrate a little bit eastward as well during the day on Thursday. Meister && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 There`s a fair bit of uncertainty with how fast the cutoff low takes its bow and moves on from our area. Just from this evening`s model guidance alone, the GFS would keep the low across the Ozarks while the ECMWF shoves it further toward the Mississippi River. The western fringe of the low will be the eastern fringe of an expansive subtropical ridge. The further that low gets away from us, the more the ridge pushes in. And if that ridge pushes in, we`ll finally start seeing some full-on summer weather - drier, sunnier, hotter. It`s too early to say which scenario looks likelier, but either way periodic chances for rain should continue into early next week. Meister && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 VFR conditions to continue today and tonight with periods of mainly high clouds. A light south to southwest wind today will back to the southeast tonight. Outside chance of a shower at SPS toward the end of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 90 67 83 67 / 0 10 40 40 Hobart OK 88 66 82 66 / 0 20 40 40 Wichita Falls TX 87 68 82 68 / 20 30 60 50 Gage OK 88 62 83 63 / 0 10 20 20 Ponca City OK 92 66 87 67 / 0 0 10 20 Durant OK 89 69 84 69 / 0 10 50 50 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...04 SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...30