516
FXUS64 KOUN 231730
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1130 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1124 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

- Areas of fog possible northwest this morning. Drizzle and light
  showers developing today. Rain chances increase tonight into
  Tuesday.

- Mild temperatures for Christmas.

- Another storm system brings shower and thunderstorm chances
  Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Clouds have spread over the area this morning with the low-level
moisture increase. The fog so far has been confined to far
northwest Oklahoma where temperatures were able to cool
radiational before the higher dewpoint began moving in. Will
watch trends, but with the surface moisture advection waning
behind the initial surge, currently think the potential of dense
fog is low except in the far northwest where the Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued.

Higher dewpoints are lurking to the south and as this moisture
spreads into the area, we could see some patchy drizzle or small
areas of light rain. Showers will start developing this evening
(possibly as early as this afternoon) as the mid-level trough
approaches from the west. There has been a signal of a east- west
enhanced band of showers developing with frontogenesis above the
surface as the low-level cyclone develops in the southwestern
portion of the forecast area. It`s hard to place this projected
band too specifically, but the best signal is a little north of
the Interstate 40 corridor somewhere between an Arapaho- Enid-
Ponca City line to an El Reno-Edmond-Cushing line. Even as showers
become more widespread through the evening as the mid-level
trough approaches, there continues to be a signal of a persistent
east- west band north/northeast of the surface low, so have
adjusted POPs with this in mind.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 412 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

The showers and thunderstorms developing tonight will persist in
the east Tuesday morning near and ahead of a cold front moving
through the area. Shortwave energy digging into the base of the
large-scale mid-level trough will amplify the trough over the area
and maintain shower/storm potential into the afternoon and early
evening Tuesday ahead of the front. But this trough and the
associated precipitation move east of the area Tuesday night.
Mid-level ridging builds over the area behind this system on
Wednesday keeping Christmas Day dry and mild. The next mid-level
trough approaches Wednesday night/Thursday and we could start
seeing precipitation develop ahead of this system after midnight
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 412 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Showers will increase Thursday morning ahead of this storm system
and become widespread during the day. The model trend is for this
system to potentially be opening up from a closer low to an open
trough as it moves into the Plains. But almost all intensity and
storm path scenarios shown over the last few model runs bring high
chances of showers into the area. The timing has also slowed down
a little with the main forcing moving into the area during the day
Thursday and this may allow additional time for low-level moisture
advection and additional destabilization over the area, although
the widespread cloudiness and shower/storm development will be
working against destabilization by limiting diurnal heating.
Regardless it looks like thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday. The current timing of this system suggests precipitation
will be moving out Thursday night/Friday morning. Another mid-
level trough close behind this one is shown to move over the area
Friday and Saturday, although moisture will be more limited in the
wake of the Thursday system and precipitation chances will
probable be confined so southeastern Oklahoma. It looks to be mild
and dry after the Friday/Saturday system moves out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Mainly MVFR ceilings will dominate during the day, becoming more
IFR (even LIFR at some locations) this evening and overnight.
Scattered drizzle this afternoon transitioning to light rain this
evening and overnight will result in transient periods of reduced
visibility. A few areas in south central Oklahoma could see some
embedded thunderstorms as well. A frontal boundary moving south
through the area will bring a gradual transition to northerly
winds over the next 24 hours.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  48  55  41  55 /  60  20   0   0
Hobart OK         47  58  41  58 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  51  62  44  61 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           39  55  35  55 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     45  53  36  52 /  50  30   0   0
Durant OK         54  63  46  59 /  60  70  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...14