446
FXUS64 KTSA 111949
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
249 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

  - Slow moving upper low increases rain chances tonight with
    widespread showers and scattered storms Thursday into Friday.
    Locally heavy rainfall possible. Flooding may become a
    concern.

  - Rain chances continue into the weekend but coverage is
    forecast to decrease. Temperatures near mid June normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage
across the area this evening and overnight as a closed upper low
over west Texas moves slowly northeast towards the area. Overnight
low temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The closed upper low will move slowly northeast across Oklahoma
into southwest Missouri by Friday. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms will continue through Friday, with slow moving
thunderstorms possibly resulting in locally heavy rainfall,
especially from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
Unseasonably cool temperatures are expected Thursday with the
upper low overhead, with some warming by Friday with a few peeks
of the sun possible at times.

A couple upper level impulses in the northwest flow aloft will
keep shower and storm chances going over the weekend, with
considerable model disparity in just how widespread precipitation
will be, and potential rainfall amounts. For now, have stuck with
the NBM pops, but uncertainty is high and the weekend forecast is
subject to change. As of now, temperatures look to be near normal
levels for the middle of June over the weekend.

Low rain chances may continue into next week in some places, but
the overall trend continues to be towards hotter and drier weather
with time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions are likely to prevail outside of any direct
influences from thunderstorm development this afternoon and
evening. Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage from
south to north, with at least low potential for impacts at all
sites this afternoon and evening. Opted not to include mention of
TS in NE OK sites between 21-04z due to low confidence, but
amendments may be required for BVO/TUL/RVS if trends suggest
impacts are more likely. Cigs are forecast to fall overnight
areawide, and widespread MVFR to IFR conditions are expected by
12z. Shower and thunderstorm chances persist through the end of
the forecast period... with SE OK and W-Central AR sites most
likely to experience impacts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  78  67  85 /  50  60  40  40
FSM   69  79  69  85 /  70  90  70  70
MLC   67  77  67  84 /  70  90  50  50
BVO   65  78  65  85 /  40  50  30  30
FYV   65  77  66  80 /  60  80  70  70
BYV   66  77  66  78 /  50  70  70  70
MKO   67  76  67  83 /  70  80  50  60
MIO   67  78  67  80 /  50  60  50  50
F10   66  76  67  83 /  60  80  40  40
HHW   67  76  68  83 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43