843
FXUS64 KTSA 231748
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1148 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

 - Mild, but active weather pattern this week with widespread
   showers/isolated thunderstorms tonight/Tuesday and again on
   Thursday.

 - Dry conditions expected Christmas Day over most areas, with
   some fog potential across mainly northeast Oklahoma Christmas
   morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1010 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Main change to the short-term forecast was increasing PoPs
(20-40%) and adding patchy drizzle through the afternoon. Latest
surface observations still show somewhat dry surface conditions,
with widespread dewpoint depressions at or above 9F across the
forecast area. However, latest mesoscale analysis shows modest
south-to-north low-level moisture advection, which should
contribute to lowering ceilings and increasing dewpoint
temperatures as the day progresses. In turn, this should help
moisten the boundary layer and aid in light-moderate showers and
drizzle development ahead of an approaching mid-level trough axis
from the west this afternoon. Hi-res models show the best signal
(highest PoPs) for light rain/drizzle occurs across northeast
Oklahoma by midday and spreads east into far northwest Arkansas
later this afternoon. With that said, it appears most locations
will see at least a slight chance (20%) of light rain and drizzle
through this afternoon. Rainfall accumulations are expected to be
light through this afternoon and generally around or less than a
tenth of an inch, perhaps a touch more if any banding occurs.
Have updated the PoP/Wx grids accordingly.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

The first in a series of upper level storm systems will begin
affecting the area tonight, with showers becoming widespread
overnight, and isolated thunderstorms becoming possible after
midnight. These conditions will continue well into Tuesday, with
the NBM pops raised Tuesday due to a slower movement of this
system. Rain chances will continue at least into Tuesday evening
as the upper system tries to form a closed low over far southeast
Oklahoma.

The good news is that this system should be past the area by
Christmas morning. There is even potential for some clearing later
Tuesday night across mainly parts of northeast Oklahoma, and if
this clearing does occur, fog...quite possibly dense...will likely
develop. This will need to be monitored as Santa may have to call
Rudolph into service later Tuesday night.

After a dry Christmas Day, the next upper level storm system
quickly moves into the area Thursday. Quite a few changes have
occurred in the data since this time yesterday, and it now
appears that this system will dampen out as moves quickly east
across Oklahoma. This results in only a weak surface reflection
farther south, which will limit thunderstorm chances in our area
and also keep temperatures cooler Thursday. Some locally heavy
rainfall potential may still exist, but even this chance is
decreasing, and if current trends hold, QPF amounts may be lowered
in later forecasts.

Another upper wave quickly follows this one late Friday into
early Saturday, but any precipitation chances remain questionable
at this time, so continued to ride with the NBM pops in this
period for now.

After a mainly dreary week with small diurnal temperature ranges,
we may see more sunshine next weekend, allowing warmer afternoon
high temperatures and cooler overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Ceilings will continue to lower through the daytime and into this
evening, with widespread MVFR cigs prevailing by mid-afternoon or
so. Area-wide IFR and pockets of LIFR ceilings appear likely by
early-mid morning Tuesday as low-level moisture continues to
increase. Additionally, light rain showers and patchy drizzle are
expected to develop across much of eastern OK and northwest AR
this afternoon, persisting into this evening. Any rain/drizzle
that occurs will likely reduce visibilities. More widespread,
convective showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms will develop
this evening and overnight tonight as a weak upper-level storm
system and cold front approach from the west. Left the mention of
lightning/thunder out of the TAFs for now, as lightning/thunder
activity should remain isolated. Will continue to monitor trends.
Light and variable winds will gradually turn east this evening,
then northeast on Tuesday morning.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  48  51  38 /  30  80  80  20
FSM   54  48  53  45 /  30  90 100  50
MLC   58  51  56  43 /  20 100 100  30
BVO   55  45  50  33 /  30  70  60  20
FYV   54  47  51  42 /  30  90 100  40
BYV   53  46  49  43 /  30  80 100  50
MKO   55  48  53  43 /  30 100 100  30
MIO   53  46  49  37 /  40  70  80  30
F10   58  49  54  42 /  30  90  90  20
HHW   58  52  59  47 /  20  90 100  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67