416
FXUS64 KTSA 170452
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1052 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1048 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

 - Patchy to areas of fog late tonight into Wednesday morning;
   dense fog possible especially in Osage and Pawnee counties.

 - Low to medium rain chances ahead of approaching front Wednesday
   night and Thursday morning; only light rain amounts expected.

 - Above normal temperatures expected through the forecast
   period.

 - Limited to locally elevated fire weather potential Thursday and
   into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1011 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

An increase in low clouds and/or fog is expected near and after
sunrise Wednesday. The greatest potential for any dense fog is
expected to be across parts of Osage and Pawnee counties where
winds will be lightest in the vicinity of a decaying surface
boundary. Any fog will likely be slow to burn off Wednesday
morning as low level moisture increases from the south, and once
it does burn off, low clouds will likely persist through the day.
The clouds will hold temperatures down, with afternoon highs
mainly in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1011 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

A strong upper level storm system moving across the northern U.S.
will send a cold front through the area Thursday morning.
Scattered showers may develop in the moist airmass across far
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as early as Wednesday
evening, but will become increasingly likely as the front
approaches. Rainfall amounts are generally expected to remain on
the light side.

Strong northwest winds will follow the frontal passage on
Thursday, with gusts over 30 miles an hour at times. Clearing
skies and falling humidity values will raise fire weather
concerns Thursday, especially across northeast Oklahoma.

After a chilly night Thursday night, a warmup will begin Friday as
south winds return. Unseasonably warm temperatures and gusty south
winds are expected Saturday just ahead of another cold front that
will pass late Saturday afternoon and evening, with fire weather
concerns remaining heightened through the day Saturday.

Temperatures will remain above normal Sunday into early next week
even in the wake of the frontal boundary, with even warmer
conditions likely next week leading into the Christmas holiday.
Mainly dry weather will prevail after Thursday, but cannot totally
rule out a few showers in a few spots around Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions will gradually give way to MVFR overnight,
primarily in the form of low clouds spreading north across the
area. The best potential for any fog would be at KBVO closer to
12z, with low chance of IFR vis there. Otherwise MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist through much of the remainder of the forecast
in all areas. Some increase in south wind likely by late Wed
afternoon or evening, with a few gusts around 20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  37  57  50 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   58  41  59  52 /   0   0   0  40
MLC   58  42  60  53 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   56  31  56  46 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   59  39  58  50 /   0   0   0  30
BYV   59  39  61  49 /   0   0   0  30
MKO   60  40  59  52 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   56  36  58  48 /   0   0   0  20
F10   57  40  59  51 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   58  44  59  54 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14