029
FXUS64 KTSA 181136
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
636 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

  - Shower and thunderstorm chances continue today, with severe
    weather chances shifting south with time this afternoon and
    evening. Locally heavy rainfall remains possible this
    morning.

  - Dry and summer-like conditions are expected late in the week
    and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue near and north of
Interstate 40 early this morning, but the severe weather threat is
diminishing. Locally heavy rainfall remains possible, and the
flood watch will continue as is until 18Z, along with a low chance
for an isolated severe storm.

Convection may increase in intensity later this afternoon and
evening near the surface/outflow boundary, which will likely be
located somewhere near or south of Interstate 40, but storms will
likely be more scattered in nature. Afternoon high temperatures
today will mostly be in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

The surface boundary will gradually wash out by Thursday as an
upper ridge begins to build over the area. A few showers and
storms may remain possible Thursday across the far southeast part
of the forecast area, but overall a trend towards hot and dry
weather will begin that will persist through the weekend.

The center of the upper ridge will be to our east early next
week, and the deep moist southerly flow over our area may result
in isolated diurnal convection over the higher terrain, possibly
as early as Monday but more likely by Tuesday. Overall though, hot
and dry weather will prevail, with daily highs in the 90 to 95
range and overnight lows in the 70 to 75 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period, although at
least a brief period of MVFR ceilings will be possible at most
sites this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end
at KMLC and KFSM later this morning, with redevelopment possible
near those sites later this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  70  92  74 /  50  10   0   0
FSM   89  72  93  73 /  70  40  10   0
MLC   87  70  92  73 /  60  30  10   0
BVO   85  66  92  69 /  40   0   0   0
FYV   83  66  89  68 /  80  30   0   0
BYV   83  67  89  68 /  80  30   0   0
MKO   85  69  91  72 /  70  20   0   0
MIO   81  67  90  69 /  70  10   0   0
F10   85  68  91  72 /  70  20   0   0
HHW   89  72  92  73 /  20  40  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ054>070.

AR...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05