634 FXUS64 KOUN 110753 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 - Heat wave is expected this weekend before cold front arrives on Sunday. - Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions return this weekend. - Low chances for showers and storms return middle of next week with near average temperatures. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 The upper ridge drifts over the northern Rockies and steers the surface high across the plains today, which causes low-level northerly flow to shift south-southwest. As a result, weak low- level CAA gradually diminishes and transitions to WAA by this evening. Winds will generally be on the light side while shifting anti-cyclonically with the passage of the surface ridge axis. It will be a pleasant spring day with sunny skies and high temperatures mainly in the 70`s, with near 80 degrees over western north Texas. Marginally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across a small portion of northwest Oklahoma. The fire risk will be primarily driven by low relative humidity since maximum winds of only 10 to 15 mph are expected. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Breezy and much warmer this weekend, with elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible... A H250 jet streak reaches the Pacific northwest and effectively pushes the ridge over the plains. This jet streak prompts mid-level height falls and rapid development of a lee-side surface trough on Saturday. As a result, much warmer temperatures and windy conditions are expected over the weekend. The heat peaks on Sunday with temperatures near the century mark over southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. As this surface low passes to our north, the associated cold front moves into Oklahoma sometime on Sunday. Frontal timing trends will need to be watched as a faster solution could lower high temperatures on Sunday for parts of northwest Oklahoma. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Increased cloudiness and cooler temperatures are forecast on Monday following FROPA. A flattened ridge sets up over our region towards the middle of next week and winds return to the south by Tuesday night. The return to the WAA regime will allow temperatures to gradually trend upwards through Wednesday. There is considerable uncertainty with regards to high temperatures for middle to end of next week, with 10 to 15 deg model spreads within the 25th to 75th percentile (most reasonable set of solutions). Low shower and thunderstorm chances return next Tuesday night and remain through Thursday. Thompson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all sites with light winds of less than 10 knots remaining predominantly out of the north through tomorrow evening before returning to the east- southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 75 49 79 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 78 50 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 51 86 63 / 0 10 0 0 Gage OK 78 51 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 73 45 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 76 47 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...01 SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...23