821
FXUS64 KTSA 020438
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1138 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025
- Unsettled weather next week, with daily shower and storm
chances. Severe weather potential mainly Tuesday.
- Heavy rain threat also exists next week with multiple inches
of rainfall expected, leading to an increasing flash and
mainstem river flooding threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 926 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025
Clear skies and light winds will continue overnight. Patchy fog
may develop but placement and magnitude are uncertain. Later
forecasts can monitor trends. Otherwise mild overnight low temps
with a quick warm up tomorrow. Update will incorporate observed
trends.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025
Upper level ridge passes through the region Monday with the return
of increasing southerly low level flow Monday afternoon. Southerly
winds are expected to increase into Monday evening and remain
breezy overnight ahead of another shortwave progged to move out
into the Central/Southern Plains by 12z Tuesday. These conditions
will help afternoon temps warm into the mid/upper 80s for most
locations, and should be the warmest day of the upcoming week.
This return flow will also increase moisture advection back into
the region with precipitable water value in excess of 1.5 inches
Monday night. Also Monday night, a 40-55+KT low level jet is
forecast to develop and move over the region ahead of the eastward
moving shortwave. The combination of these features will aid in
the return of shower and thunderstorm chances developing out west
and spreading into portions of northeast Oklahoma late Monday
night. Marginal instability and shear will create a limited severe
potential mainly west of Highway 75 after midnight Monday night.
Showers/storms are forecast to be ongoing Tuesday morning across
mainly northeast Oklahoma. This activity looks to weaken/move out
of the CWA through the morning hours. Additional convection is
anticipated to develop during the afternoon/evening hours as the
shortwave and associated cold front move into the region. Latest
indications are for the arrival of the cold front into northeast
Oklahoma around 00z Wed. Modest instability interacting with
frontogenetic forcing will help to increase severe potential into
the evening hours Tuesday over northeast Oklahoma with lesser
potential across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Large
hail and damaging winds are the main severe threats Tuesday
afternoon/evening.
Instability looks to weaken overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning while the cold front slowly sags east southeast into
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. However, elevated
frontogenetic forcing will aid in continued shower/storm
development into Wednesday. Latest model solutions continue to
differ on the placement of this boundary Wednesday
afternoon/night. NAM has the placement more over the CWA, while
the GFS tries to push the front just east of the CWA and the ECMWF
is more closer to the eastern periphery of the CWA. The location
of the front will help determine the storm coverage and severe
potentials into Wednesday night. For this forecast leaned closer
to a blend of the NAM/ECMWF.
Beyond Wednesday, a series of additional shortwaves are progged to
move through the region into the weekend. Thus, continued chances
for showers and thunderstorms will remain common through the
forecast period. As these waves moves through, isolated to limited
severe potentials exist, though the greater severe potential of
the forecast period remains with the initial front Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Temperatures through the extended look to range
in the 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s to low 70s.
Besides the severe potentials this week, the continued southerly
low level flow pumping moisture with precipitable water values of
1.5 to locally in excess of 2 inches into the region will create
multiple periods of a heavy rain threat. The first is with the
front Tuesday/Tuesday night. Second is dependent on the location
of the front Wednesday. With the potential more eastward position,
NBM has decreased QPF over the CWA compared to 24-hrs ago. As
these details are refined in the coming days, this heavy rain axis
should shift back and forth a few times. The heavy rain threat
continues for the second half of the week into the weekend as the
region remains in a near zonal upper level flow pushing
disturbances through the region.
Even with the uncertainties of the placement of heavy rain, near
saturated model soundings at times through the week will allow for
efficient rain producing showers/storms. Multiple inches of
rainfall remain forecast for the CWA, which will quickly heighten
concerns for flash flooding as well as mainstem river flooding.
Persons with interests along the mainstem rivers should continue
to follow latest forecasts as ensembles continue to highlight the
potential for river flood impacts during the second half of the
week. A flood watch will also likely be necessary as the heavy
rain axis becomes more certain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025
VFR conditions should prevail at all sites through the period.
Satellite is showing some signs of valley fog development in
northwest Arkansas currently, which may lead to some reduced
visibilities eventually at FYV/ROG/XNA. Will leave the existing
TEMPO groups for MVFR visibilities at those three terminals as a
result. Southerly winds increase late morning into the afternoon
tomorrow, with gusts around 20 kts at the E OK sites. Diurnal
cumulus looks to be a good bet tomorrow, leading to actual
ceilings at the E OK sites, with more FEW to SCT coverage in W AR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 65 89 73 85 / 0 0 20 60
FSM 65 89 70 89 / 0 0 10 10
MLC 64 88 73 86 / 0 0 10 30
BVO 60 88 70 84 / 0 10 30 70
FYV 59 86 69 86 / 0 0 10 20
BYV 62 87 69 85 / 0 0 0 30
MKO 64 87 72 85 / 0 0 10 40
MIO 63 87 71 84 / 0 0 20 60
F10 64 87 72 84 / 0 0 10 50
HHW 64 88 71 86 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...22