226 FXUS64 KTSA 031956 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Storm chances increase across northeast OK this afternoon, spreading through the entire area tonight. Severe weather and areas of heavy rainfall are expected. - More rounds of storms and heavy rainfall are expected beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend. - The repeated rounds of rainfall will lead to an increasing flash and mainstem river flooding threat late week on into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 Storms are increasing in coverage this afternoon along and ahead of an advancing cold front. The storms ahead of the front may pose an isolated hail or wind threat, but the bigger threat may be heavy rain/flash flooding as deep layer shear is only marginal across OK and PWATs are near record levels for this time of year. Storms back to the west closer to the front are expected to evolve into one or more linear segments and progress east across the forecast area this evening and tonight with an increasing damaging wind threat. CAMs have been consistent in showing a general weakening trend by the time they reach the AR border. Will maintain the Flood Watch for much of east-central and northeast OK given potential for heavy rainfall and slower storm motions in this area vs farther to the south and east when storms are expected to be more progressive. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 The front is expected to stall or wash out over far eastern OK/western AR on Wednesday. CAMs suggest that scattered showers and storms will develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the boundary, but without an appreciable severe threat due to weak deep layer shear. Focus then turns to later in the week. Westerly flow aloft is expected to strengthen as ridging builds over Deep South TX and troughing remains over the north-central CONUS. In addition, the second of two southwest CONUS upper lows (the first is now lifting northeast across KS) is expected to get picked up and is expected to track across KS/OK Thursday night into Friday. As a result, the GFS and EC (with slightly different timing) develop a complex of storms across western KS and track it east-southeast across northern portions of the forecast area. The strong flow aloft suggests that severe wind potential will be higher. Models show potential for storm complexes again Friday night and Saturday night, though likely not to take the same track as the previous ones. Any of these complexes will also pose at least some wind threat. Multiple rounds of storms tracking over the region suggest more widespread higher rainfall potential and thus a river and flash flood threat. Amplification of the upper flow pattern is expected by late in the weekend on into the first part of next week as a deep trough develops over the north-central CONUS. We may see a nice weather day or two in there, but it`s also hard to rule out storms this time of year in NW flow. Still no sign of a big ridge developing, and instead show consistent troughing over the western CONUS with disturbances ejecting into the Plains instigating rain and storm chances. This will keep temps from getting hot. Lacy && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon. By late afternoon or early evening, a line of showers and thunderstorms will begin affecting the northeast Oklahoma sites, with the showers and storms spreading east and south through the evening. Gusty winds may accompany the storms, especially at the Oklahoma sites. A cold front will shift the winds to the north this evening except possibly at KFYV and KFSM where the front will stall in the higher terrain. IFR ceilings will develop overnight at all sites except possibly KFSM where they may remain MVFR, and these low ceilings will persist through Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 63 74 66 81 / 90 20 10 20 FSM 70 83 69 86 / 80 60 30 30 MLC 68 80 68 83 / 90 50 10 30 BVO 57 74 63 80 / 90 10 10 20 FYV 67 80 67 82 / 90 70 40 30 BYV 68 78 67 81 / 90 70 40 40 MKO 65 76 66 80 / 100 50 20 30 MIO 64 73 65 79 / 90 40 10 30 F10 64 75 65 80 / 90 40 10 30 HHW 69 81 70 84 / 80 50 20 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ054>068-070-071- 073. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05