226
FXUS64 KTSA 031956
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 256 PM
CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

  - Storm chances increase across northeast OK this afternoon,
spreading through the entire area tonight. Severe weather and areas
of heavy rainfall are expected.

  - More rounds of storms and heavy rainfall are expected beginning
Thursday night and continuing into the weekend.

  - The repeated rounds of rainfall will lead to an increasing flash
and mainstem river flooding threat late week on into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Storms are increasing in coverage this afternoon along and ahead of
an advancing cold front. The storms ahead of the front may pose an
isolated hail or wind threat, but the bigger threat may be heavy
rain/flash flooding as deep layer shear is only marginal across OK
and PWATs are near record levels for this time of year. Storms back
to the west closer to the front are expected to evolve into one or
more linear segments and progress east across the forecast area this
evening and tonight with an increasing damaging wind threat. CAMs
have been consistent in showing a general weakening trend by the
time they reach the AR border. Will maintain the Flood Watch for
much of east-central and northeast OK given potential for heavy
rainfall and slower storm motions in this area vs farther to the
south and east when storms are expected to be more progressive.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The front is expected to stall or wash out over far eastern
OK/western AR on Wednesday. CAMs suggest that scattered showers and
storms will develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the
boundary, but without an appreciable severe threat due to weak deep
layer shear. Focus then turns to later in the week. Westerly flow
aloft is expected to strengthen as ridging builds over Deep South TX
and troughing remains over the north-central CONUS. In addition, the
second of two southwest CONUS upper lows (the first is now lifting
northeast across KS) is expected to get picked up and is expected to
track across KS/OK Thursday night into Friday.
As a result, the GFS and EC (with slightly different timing) develop
a complex of storms across western KS and track it east-southeast
across northern portions of the forecast area. The strong flow aloft
suggests that severe wind potential will be higher. Models show
potential for storm complexes again Friday night and Saturday night,
though likely not to take the same track as the previous ones. Any
of these complexes will also pose at least some wind threat.
Multiple rounds of storms tracking over the region suggest more
widespread higher rainfall potential and thus a river and flash
flood threat. Amplification of the upper flow pattern is expected by
late in the weekend on into the first part of next week as a deep
trough develops over the north-central CONUS. We may see a nice
weather day or two in there, but it`s also hard to rule out storms
this time of year in NW flow. Still no sign of a big ridge
developing, and instead show consistent troughing over the western
CONUS with disturbances ejecting into the Plains instigating rain
and storm chances. This will keep temps from getting hot.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon. By late
afternoon or early evening, a line of showers and thunderstorms will
begin affecting the northeast Oklahoma sites, with the showers and
storms spreading east and south through the evening. Gusty winds may
accompany the storms, especially at the Oklahoma sites. A cold front
will shift the winds to the north this evening except possibly at
KFYV and KFSM where the front will stall in the higher terrain. IFR
ceilings will develop overnight at all sites except possibly KFSM
where they may remain MVFR, and these low ceilings will persist
through Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  74  66  81 /  90  20  10  20 FSM   70  83  69  86 /  80
60  30  30 MLC   68  80  68  83 /  90 50  10  30 BVO   57  74  63
80 /  90 10  10  20 FYV   67  80  67 82 /  90 70  40  30 BYV   68
78  67 81 /  90 70  40  40 MKO   65 76  66 80 / 100 50  20  30 MIO
64 73  65 79 /  90 40  10  30 F10 64 75  65 80 /  90 40  10  30 HHW
69 81  70 84 /  80 50  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ054>068-070-071-
073.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05