411
FXUS64 KOUN 081747
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1247 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

 - Scattered storms today bring a risk of localized flooding and
damaging winds.

 - Hot and humid conditions Thursday and Friday with heat indices
near 105 deg F possible in the southeast.

 - Another chance for storms arrives with a front this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The I-35 moisture plume continues, this time with some assistance
from an upper-level shortwave moving through the region. This will
drive an area of scattered showers and storms across central and
south central Oklahoma through the afternoon and evening. The
primary threats from these storms will be strong downburst winds and
localized flooding from heavy downpours.

A more challenging part of the forecast revolves around the
potential for thunderstorms to develop in southern Kansas/northern
Oklahoma and move south as a complex this evening and overnight.
Confidence in this overnight scenario remains low, as development is
highly conditional on the placement of outflow boundaries from
today`s convection, and there is significant disagreement among high-
resolution models. That said, the environment is characterized by
strong instability (MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg), which will
support robust updrafts capable of producing damaging winds in any
storms that do develop.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Lingering moisture on Wednesday will keep slight rain chances in
place, mainly across southeastern areas.

By Thursday, we`ll see some areas with temperatures reaching into
the mid to upper 90s under mostly clear skies as a ridge begins to
build, with heat index values potentially reaching 105 degrees in
southeastern parts of the forecast area.

With continued northwest flow, models suggest the development of
another MCS possibly affecting northwest Oklahoma Thursday night.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue into Friday, with
high temperatures in the 90s and heat index values potentially
reaching 105 degrees in the southeastern parts of the forecast area
again.

Forecast models show a cold front approaching the region Friday
night. There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact timing and
strength of this front, as it appears to give us only a glancing
blow. Still, its passage will bring another round of thunderstorm
chances, followed by a brief cooldown in temperatures this weekend
that will be most noticeable across northern Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Isolated rain/storms developing along an outflow boundary
currently moving into central Oklahoma will continue to dig
southward with 30% probabilities for TSRA across all but our
northernmost terminals (KWWR & KPNC) at least through 23Z.
Although most of our terminals should stay in a VFR Category, any
storms passing over any affected terminals could briefly reduce
to a MVFR category due to reduced visibilities in rain and
potentially a lower ceiling. Patchy radiational fog may develop
across southeast Oklahoma after 10Z which could reduce the
visibilities to an MVFR Category at terminal KDUA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  71  93  72 /  30  30  10   0
Hobart OK         96  70  98  72 /  20  30   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  95  73  96  74 /  20  20  10  10
Gage OK           94  67  96  70 /  20  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     92  70  93  72 /  20  20  10  10
Durant OK         91  73  92  73 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...68