989
FXUS64 KOUN 170333
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1033 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1030 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions across northwestern
Oklahoma on Thursday afternoon/evening.
- A low chance (20%) for a severe thunderstorm across far northern
Oklahoma this evening before greater/more widespread concern
Friday into the weekend (especially across southern
Oklahoma/north Texas).
- Additional chances for scattered showers/thunderstorms early
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
With the risk of any dryline convection gone and only elevated
convection staying well to our north across Kansas, took storm
POPs out of northern Oklahoma for tonight. No other changes made
to the forecast.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
We will begin to enter a more active weather pattern across the
region today, with low risks for strong-severe thunderstorms and
elevated fire weather conditions.
The region will remain under the influence of a shortwave ridge,
slowly moving eastward from the Great Divide into Plains. As a
dryline (across the Texas Panhandle into southwest Kansas) becomes
heated/mixed this afternoon, a thunderstorm or two may ultimately
emerge and impact portions of far northern Oklahoma. With at
least modest instability and strong tropospheric flow, (high-
based) supercell characteristics are likely with any sustained
thunderstorm. This will come with a risk for large hail and
damaging downburst wind gusts. Still, most locations will remain
dry during the period, and chances remain low (20%) that any one
location across northern Oklahoma sees a storm/precipitation this
evening.
Otherwise, with hot temperatures (mid to upper-80s) modest afternoon
relative humidities (~30-35%) and gusty southwest winds (as a lee
cyclone deepens), elevated fire weather conditions are forecast
across portions of western/northern Oklahoma and portions of western-
north Texas through sunset. A Fire Danger Statement continues
until 8 PM for much of this area.
Ungar
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
A concerning fire weather setup on Thursday (particularly across
northwestern Oklahoma) will give way to increasing
thunderstorm/severe weather chances by Friday-the weekend.
Thursday: An active subtropical jet/system will begin to move
eastward across the Desert Southwest into Southern Plains through
the day. More robust lee cyclogenesis, along with advection of
warmed/downsloped airmasses, will foster concerning fire weather
conditions during the afternoon and evening. The most problematic
environment is expected behind a dryline, where a pronounced low-
level thermal ridge (90s to near 100-degrees), very low relative
humidity (locally as low as ~5%) and gusty southwest winds (up to
40 mph) will overlap. While rainfall during the early month has
helped with vegetation green up across much of the area, the
fuelscape across northwestern-far northern Oklahoma appears to
have remained receptive to potential fire starts (especially with
a long period of preceding drying). As such, we have issued a Red
Flag Warning for portions of this area from 11 PM to 9 PM.
Friday: Weather impacts will transition from fire weather to severe
weather, especially by the evening. The synoptic pattern looks to
remain quite active across the region, with a pronounced (70+ kt)
subtropical jet core extending from Trans Pecos into portions of the
Upper Midwest. A surface front is also progged to make slow
south/southeastward progress through the day on Friday. As an upper
wave begins to accelerate eastward from the Four Corners, increasing
precipitation chance is forecast across the forecast area. The
aforementioned front looks to focus much of this potential, as a
pronounced warm advection/isentropic regime begins into Friday
evening. Initial activity may focus near and north of the front
(across northern & north-central Oklahoma) through much of Friday
evening into early Saturday morning.
Activity is likely to include at least scattered thunderstorm
coverage, posing some risk for severe weather. While both large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible, given sufficient
instability and strong wind shear, the primary hazard(s) will be
sensitive to thunderstorm location. If a majority of activity
remains north of the front, atop a stable near-surface layer, then
hail is likely of greatest concern. Any thunderstorm that remains
south, or interacts favorably with, the front will harbor some
risk for damaging winds (along with a very low tornado risk).
Ungar
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
Saturday-Sunday: The weekend is likely to feature episodic periods
of showers and thunderstorms with a continued severe and heavy rain
risk. Upper troughing will continue upstream of the area during
this time frame, as a trailing/digging wave begins to phase with
the broader subtropical jet core.
The result will be continued chance for showers and thunderstorms,
especially across southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas. At this
update, the signal for "all day" rain is decreasing somewhat, though
locations in the aforementioned region may note the most
persistent coverage. Like Friday, concern for severe outcomes
(wind/hail/very low tornado risk) will focus near/south of the
frontal boundary, which is likely to continue slow southward
progression through Sunday.
Concern for isolated heavy rainfall/flooding may also increase by
Saturday evening into Sunday, especially in areas where repeated
rounds of thunderstorms occur.
As the trailing wave begins to lift towards the Ozarks, and Pacific
front moves west-to-east across the area into Sunday morning,
precipitation chance should likewise come to an end. Dry times
are possible by Sunday evening for many locations (especially
west).
Early Next Week: The pattern looks to remain fairly active into the
new work week, with low-medium (20-50%) shower/thunderstorm
chances persisting. Ensemble guidance favors broad western US
troughing aloft, with some potential east/northward advancement of
the subtropical jet into portions of Texas. This would favor
diurnally-driven precipitation coverage and a generally warm
pattern across the region.
Ungar
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period except at
KDUA where stratus is expected to develop with MVFR ceilings.
Southerly winds will continue throughout the TAF period with winds
remaining breezy overnight. LLWS is expected late tonight into
Thursday morning at all TAF sites. A few storms may affect parts
of far northern OK this evening. If storms do move into OK, KWWR
and KPNC would be the most likely TAF sites to be affected.
However, chances are too low (20% or less) for mention in TAFs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 63 90 66 81 / 0 0 0 30
Hobart OK 61 97 64 83 / 0 0 10 20
Wichita Falls TX 62 94 67 86 / 0 0 10 20
Gage OK 60 96 55 75 / 20 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 62 92 66 77 / 20 0 10 30
Durant OK 63 86 65 83 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004>006-
009>011-014-015.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...25