745 FXUS64 KOUN 280346 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1046 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1043 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 - Low (<20%) chance for storms this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma. Main hazard will be strong wind gusts. - Dangerous heat continues into the middle of the week. - Increased rain chances and cooler temperatures may return towards the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Another hot day today as the upper ridge continues to slowly meander westward with temperatures in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Dewpoints today are already a few degrees lower, especially in the southeast, than yesterday with a south-southwest surface wind as the surface high shifts westward in conjunction with the upper pattern. Most HiRes model guidance suggests dewpoints in the upper 60s by this afternoon across the area. Thus, heat indices may be lower today than yesterday thanks to some drier air. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today from 1pm to 8pm for heat index values up to 105 degrees possible, especially towards eastern Oklahoma where dewpoints will remain slightly higher. A weak mid-level circulation embedded in the western edge of the ridge is spinning over southeast Oklahoma this morning with a layer of mid-level clouds across that area. These clouds are helping to slow the daytime heating, but are slowly dissipating this afternoon. As temperatures outside of the cloud cover continue to heat, there may be a differential heating boundary that sets up and becomes a primary focus area for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convective inhibition is expected to erode through the afternoon hours across southeast Oklahoma introducing pockets of instability with MLCAPE values in excess of 1000-2000 J/kg. Soundings indicate that portions of central and southern Oklahoma may continue to have a weak capping inversion around 700-800mb. Thus, the highest chances for a storm or two to develop this afternoon will be across southeast Oklahoma. Effective shear values of less than 20 knots will give way to quick updraft pulses and in return the potential for a rapid collapse of storms with strong downburst wind gusts as the main hazard. PWATs will not be nearly as high as yesterday, but still over 1.5" to 2" and therefore high rainfall rates combined with slow storm motion may give way to localized flooding concerns. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 The upper ridge will continue to retrograde westward Monday and be entering the Southern Plains by Tuesday. Monday will feature temperatures in the mid-90s to lower 100s. Dewpoint temperatures will likely keep to the upper 60s to lower 70s, which will give way to heat indices up to 105 to 110 degrees across all but western Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the area mentioned above from 1 PM to 8 PM Monday. Tuesday will feature gradually warmer temperatures with slightly drier air, which will help to keep heat indices from extreme criteria. Conditions will still feel humid with a dewpoint in the mid to upper 60s, especially across central and eastern Oklahoma. Weak southwesterly flow may allow some precipitation to clip far northwest Oklahoma Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. However, chances remain very low at this time and are highly contingent on the track of the upper ridge. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 The consensus among deterministic models and the mean of ensemble members is the ridge will continue to strengthen through at least through Wednesday. As a result, Wednesday will likely be a hot day across the entire area with highs in the upper 90s to mid 100s deg F. By late Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, the ridge may retrograde far enough to the west to place the Southern Plains into northwest or northerly flow aloft. This synoptic-scale pattern would allow mesoscale convective complexes (MCSs) and effective, convectively-reinforced cold fronts to advance southward as shortwave troughs rotate around the northeast periphery of the ridge. As a result, there is chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday night through Saturday. Initially, showers and thunderstorms might be confined across northern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. Therefore, Thursday will likely still be a hot day for most of the area. By Friday into Saturday, the chance of showers and thunderstorms expands southward across most of the area. Forecast highs trend lower toward Friday and Saturday with the lowest highs forecast on Saturday. Probabilistic guidance indicates a 50 to 80% chance of high temperatures below 90 deg F across the northern half of Oklahoma (with the 80% across far north central Oklahoma, near the Kansas border). Mahale && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Tranquil conditions continue tonight with some high clouds. On Monday, winds will be a bit lighter than Sunday and out of the southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 93 77 97 76 / 10 10 0 0 Hobart OK 96 76 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 96 76 100 75 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 96 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 95 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 93 76 98 75 / 20 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ006>008- 011>013-017>020-024>032-038>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ086-089-090. && $$ NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...01