209
FXUS64 KTSA 140538
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1238 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 910 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025
- A dry cold front tonight will bring breezy northerly winds
and cooler conditions Monday to Tuesday.
- A more active weather pattern is expected to return by next
weekend. Severe thunderstorm and heavy rain potential are
anticipated.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 910 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025
As of mid evening the gusty southerly winds had weakened due to
the easing of the pressure gradient from a surface low pressure in
Missouri moving off to the east northeast. At the same time
though, a cold front was currently slowly moving into northern
Osage county with winds shifting out of the north. Lagging a
couple counties behind was a cooler/drier airmass trying to filter
into the region. Meanwhile, ahead of the boundary temps remained
in the upper 60s to near 80 deg with dewpoints in the 50s across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Through the overnight hours, the cold front will continue to
slowly sag southeastward into the CWA with an expected position
from near Eufaula to Fayetteville by 12z Monday. The passage of
this front continues to remain dry with breezy north to
northeasterly winds pushing the cooler/drier airmass into the
region. Temperatures ahead of the front will be slow to cool with
lows in the 60s, while low temps in the 50s to around 60 deg are
forecast behind the front.
For the evening update, have added minor adjustments to the hourly
temp and dewpoint trends overnight to account for the latest
expected movement of the front and also latest obs. The rest of
the forecast is handling well at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025
The cold front will continue southeast through Monday with breezy
northerly winds. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to
low 70s north of I-40, to the mid 70s to low 80s south of I-40.
Tuesday morning will be the coolest of the next week, ranging from
the upper 30s in the north to upper 40s in the south. Tuesday also
also be relatively cool.
By Wednesday, high pressure will shift southeast of the forecast
area with southerly flow returning. Temperatures will increase as
will moisture levels. Meanwhile, a trough will deepen across the
southwest US, with seasonably strong southwest flow aloft setting
up over the area. The first weak wave in this pattern will pass
through Wed-Thu. As the low levels will be quite capped, most
likely we will only see a few sporadic light showers north of I-40
when low level jet induced warm advection is strongest. Temperatures
will become quite warm again, with highs into the mid 80s by
Thursday.
By Friday, things will become more interesting as low level moisture
becomes quite deep and the upper level low begins to close in on the
region. Model guidance shows robust instability and strong wind
shear within an environment of diffluence aloft and warm advection
near the surface. Ensemble guidance is currently in good agreement
on thunderstorm activity breaking out across the area, perhaps along
a dry line. With model guidance showing additional rounds of rain
and thunder into the weekend. Severe weather chances are expected
to ramp up, with the SPC currently showing a slight (15%) chance
of severe weather for much of the area. Due to the high moisture
content, areas of heavy rain are also expected. Even though the
details are unknown given the long lead time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025
A cold front will continue to move southeast through the CWA
tonight into Monday, pushing south of the TAF sites by early
afternoon. Ahead of the front, scattered to broken high clouds
will become scattered to broken mid and high clouds behind the
frontal passage Monday. Indications remain for a brief period of
MVFR ceilings along the boundary across northwest Arkansas and
potentially into KMLC. Thus, will continue with tempo groups for
timing. By Monday evening, cloud cover should begin to scatter
across the north while remaining over the southern half of the
CWA. Winds start out southerly/variable ahead of the front and
become northerly and breezy Monday. Winds should weaken Monday
evening. Lastly, low level wind shear is expected through the
overnight hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 42 71 48 78 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 47 73 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 46 73 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 38 70 44 77 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 40 68 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 43 66 44 73 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 44 70 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 39 67 44 74 / 0 0 0 10
F10 44 71 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 51 73 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20