137
FXUS64 KTSA 271120
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
620 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
- Dangerous heat and humidity likely to continue through mid week.
Expect daily heat headlines.
- Low to medium thunderstorm chances from southeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas in association with an increase in moisture from
the south this afternoon.
- Cooler conditions and low thunderstorm chances possible by late
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
Summer continues with another hot and humid day across the region.
Dewpoints are forecast to be a tad lower than Saturday, but advisory-
level heat is still likely for much of the forecast area and have
expanded the Heat Advisory to include the remainder of the SE OK
zones. A county or two in NW AR may also need to be included later
this morning, but confidence was not high enough to add at this
time. Additionally, deep tropical moisture remains in place across
the region and another round of diurnal isolated to scattered
showers and storms are forecast this afternoon... primarily for
northwest Arkansas and east-central/ southeast Oklahoma. As has been
the case, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible
and localized flooding may occur given slow storm motions. Precip
chances dwindle after sunset with quiet conditions likely overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
Heat continues to be the main story through the long term as mid-
upper level ridging strengthens directly overhead. This will allow
temperatures to climb further through mid week and daily heat
headlines remain likely. Similar to the previous forecast, NBM highs
have been blended downwards slightly to account for the recent warm
bias. However, this still provides high temperatures in the upper
90s/ near 100 and heat indices 100-110+ F for much of the CWA
through mid week. Predominantly dry conditions appear likely through
at least mid week under this regime.
Upper ridging begins to slide westward later this week, placing the
CWA under increasingly west-northwest flow aloft. This may gradually
open the door to increasing rain and storm chances by late week/
next weekend as a series of shortwaves ride around the northern
periphery of the ridge. This would also result in cooler
temperatures and at least some relief from the oppressive heat
indices if it were to verify. However, plenty of uncertainty remains
in terms of just how much the ridge breaks down over our area and
how much cooler and wetter conditions may become. This will continue
to be watched over the coming days, but any relief from the
dangerous heat would certainly be welcome.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
SCT-BKN low-level clouds have developed across portions of
southeast OK and northwest AR early this morning and have caused
intermittent MVFR cigs at FSM and FYV. Difficult to determine how
long these cigs will last over these aerodromes. Included a TEMPO
group at FSM and FYV for MVFR cigs through 14z/9AM just in case.
Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the
forecast period. Very low storm chances remain possible again
later this afternoon, especially across southeast OK and northwest
AR. Limited coverage and low confidence negates any mention at
any TAF sites for now. Winds will generally remain light out of
the south with some occasional afternoon gusts up to 20 knots
possible.
Mejia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 95 79 98 79 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 94 78 98 78 / 20 10 10 0
MLC 94 77 97 75 / 20 10 0 0
BVO 95 75 97 75 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 92 75 95 74 / 20 10 10 0
BYV 93 75 96 73 / 20 10 10 0
MKO 94 77 97 76 / 10 10 0 0
MIO 95 77 97 77 / 10 0 0 0
F10 94 77 97 76 / 10 10 0 0
HHW 93 75 95 74 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
OKZ049-053>068-070>076.
AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ001-019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67