137 FXUS64 KTSA 271120 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 620 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 - Dangerous heat and humidity likely to continue through mid week. Expect daily heat headlines. - Low to medium thunderstorm chances from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas in association with an increase in moisture from the south this afternoon. - Cooler conditions and low thunderstorm chances possible by late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Summer continues with another hot and humid day across the region. Dewpoints are forecast to be a tad lower than Saturday, but advisory- level heat is still likely for much of the forecast area and have expanded the Heat Advisory to include the remainder of the SE OK zones. A county or two in NW AR may also need to be included later this morning, but confidence was not high enough to add at this time. Additionally, deep tropical moisture remains in place across the region and another round of diurnal isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast this afternoon... primarily for northwest Arkansas and east-central/ southeast Oklahoma. As has been the case, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible and localized flooding may occur given slow storm motions. Precip chances dwindle after sunset with quiet conditions likely overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Heat continues to be the main story through the long term as mid- upper level ridging strengthens directly overhead. This will allow temperatures to climb further through mid week and daily heat headlines remain likely. Similar to the previous forecast, NBM highs have been blended downwards slightly to account for the recent warm bias. However, this still provides high temperatures in the upper 90s/ near 100 and heat indices 100-110+ F for much of the CWA through mid week. Predominantly dry conditions appear likely through at least mid week under this regime. Upper ridging begins to slide westward later this week, placing the CWA under increasingly west-northwest flow aloft. This may gradually open the door to increasing rain and storm chances by late week/ next weekend as a series of shortwaves ride around the northern periphery of the ridge. This would also result in cooler temperatures and at least some relief from the oppressive heat indices if it were to verify. However, plenty of uncertainty remains in terms of just how much the ridge breaks down over our area and how much cooler and wetter conditions may become. This will continue to be watched over the coming days, but any relief from the dangerous heat would certainly be welcome. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 SCT-BKN low-level clouds have developed across portions of southeast OK and northwest AR early this morning and have caused intermittent MVFR cigs at FSM and FYV. Difficult to determine how long these cigs will last over these aerodromes. Included a TEMPO group at FSM and FYV for MVFR cigs through 14z/9AM just in case. Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Very low storm chances remain possible again later this afternoon, especially across southeast OK and northwest AR. Limited coverage and low confidence negates any mention at any TAF sites for now. Winds will generally remain light out of the south with some occasional afternoon gusts up to 20 knots possible. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 95 79 98 79 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 94 78 98 78 / 20 10 10 0 MLC 94 77 97 75 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 95 75 97 75 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 92 75 95 74 / 20 10 10 0 BYV 93 75 96 73 / 20 10 10 0 MKO 94 77 97 76 / 10 10 0 0 MIO 95 77 97 77 / 10 0 0 0 F10 94 77 97 76 / 10 10 0 0 HHW 93 75 95 74 / 10 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>068-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...67