276 FXUS64 KOUN 100310 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1010 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1009 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 - Mainly dry though Tuesday. - Widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through at least Friday with the risk for flooding. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 A relatively cooler and drier air mass has advected southward in the wake of yesterday`s complex of thunderstorms. The effective cold front/outflow from the aforementioned complex has advanced to south of Abilene, Texas. As a result, dry weather is expected during the daytime with any convective initiation remaining to our south. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of New Mexico this afternoon and are forecast to consolidate into a complex that will move east-southeastward across the Texas panhandle. The northern remnants of the decaying complex of thunderstorms may clip western north Texas late tonight with a chance for some gusty winds. There`s even the potential for some wake winds with the decaying complex with some enhanced winds among some convective-allowing models. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 The remnants of the decaying complex may still be impacting western north Texas Tuesday morning. Otherwise, most locations should remain dry during the day Tuesday. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, vorticity maxima are forecast to consolidate into a closed-low across the Southern Plains. This will set the stage for a more active pattern from the middle toward the latter half of this week as the upper-level low will slowly move eastward. The upper-level low will result in more widespread showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday with the highest rainfall totals expected across the southern half of Oklahoma and north Texas. This (combined with rainfall in subsequent days) will increase the risk of flooding. There will also be some instability, so some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. However, given the expected widespread convection, the environment and the storm mode is not expected to favorable for widespread severe weather. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Models differ on timing of this upper low traversing the area, where the GFS takes it northeast quite a bit quicker than the ECMWF. Its already north and east of the area Thursday morning with the GFS, while the ECMWF keeps it meandering around the state through Saturday before kicking it east. With the uncertainty with regards to timing will likely need to maintain some precip chances into the weekend. Beyond this, models do depict a upper ridge building northeast out of the Rockies into the Plains as we go through the weekend into early the following week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 VFR conditions prevail throughout the period with variable winds becoming southerly by Tuesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 85 65 88 66 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 85 64 87 64 / 10 0 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 85 67 86 67 / 10 10 10 20 Gage OK 84 62 88 62 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 86 61 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 85 67 87 68 / 10 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...01