851 FXUS64 KOUN 271708 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 - Slight chance for storms this afternoon and early evening across southeast Oklahoma. - Dangerous heat continues into the middle of the week. - Increased rain chances and cooler temperatures may return towards the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Hot and humid conditions will continue today with a mid-level ridge persisting across southern and southeastern U.S. Oklahoma and north Texas will be on the eastern edge of a low-level thermal ridge that will allow temperatures to rise once again into the mid 90s to low 100s deg F. Precipitable water values and dew points are forecast to be lower today with less of a tropical air mass in place. As a result, forecast soundings indicate a little deeper mixing--especially across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas. The lower dew points are expected to result in lower heat indices than yesterday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for areas that are most likely to experience heat indices at 105 deg F or higher. Convective coverage should be lower today than yesterday with the relatively drier air in place. Forecast soundings indicate a little more convective inhibition between 800 and 700 mb. The exception is across southeast Oklahoma, where there is still a low chance (~10% to 20%) of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon due to higher dewpoints resulting in little or no convective inhibition. Elsewhere, the chance for showers/thunderstorms is less than 10%. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Hotter weather is expected Monday and Tuesday as the center of the mid-level ridge retrogrades to the west and becomes centered across the Southern Plains. The low-level thermal ridge is forecast to strengthen with rising 850 mb temperatures. As a result, high temperatures should increase a couple degrees (on average)--ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s deg. Therefore, a larger part of the area will likely need a Heat Advisory for Monday. Tuesday will be similar with perhaps a little lower dew points. However, this might be offset by a little higher air temperatures. Therefore, another Heat Advisory will likely be needed Tuesday for parts of the area. Rain chances will be limited/near zero. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 The consensus among deterministic models and the mean of ensemble members is the ridge will continue to strengthen through at least through Wednesday. As a result, Wednesday will likely be a hot day across the entire area with highs in the upper 90s to mid 100s deg F. By late Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, the ridge may retrograde far enough to the west to place the Southern Plains into northwest or northerly flow aloft. This synoptic-scale pattern would allow mesoscale convective complexes (MCSs) and effective, convectively-reinforced cold fronts to advance southward as shortwave troughs rotate around the northeast periphery of the ridge. As a result, there is chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday night through Saturday. Initially, showers and thunderstorms might be confined across northern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. Therefore, Thursday will likely still be a hot day for most of the area. By Friday into Saturday, the chance of showers and thunderstorms expands southward across most of the area. Forecast highs trend lower toward Friday and Saturday with the lowest highs forecast on Saturday. Probabilistic guidance indicates a 50 to 80% chance of high temperatures below 90 deg F across the northern half of Oklahoma (with the 80% across far north central Oklahoma, near the Kansas border). Mahale && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through 18Z Monday. Meanwhile, an area of scattered to broken mid to high clouds across south central Oklahoma should continue to thin through the afternoon. Otherwise, heating will result in afternoon Cu with perhaps a storm or two develop near DUA by late afternoon. Otherwise, veered surface winds (southwest) this morning, will back (south to southeast) during the late afternoon and evening. Overall wind speeds and gusts will remain under 20-25 mph most places. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 78 97 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 76 100 75 102 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 77 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 98 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 76 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 77 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013- 017>020-024>026-029>032-042-043-047-048-051-052. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ006>008- 011>013-017>020-024>032-038>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ086-089-090. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...04