371
FXUS64 KOUN 082308
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
608 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

 - Scattered storms this afternoon/evening bring a risk of
   localized flooding and damaging winds.

 - Hot and humid conditions Thursday and Friday with heat indices
near 105 deg F possible in the southeast.

 - Another chance for storms arrives with a front this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

An outflow boundary continues to move south across northern
Oklahoma this morning and the airmass is becoming uncapped. We are
seeing storms beginning to develop along this boundary early this
afternoon and this is expected to become more widespread this
afternoon. Mixed layer instability of 2000-3000 J/kg will be
sufficient for some strong to severe storms, with the strong winds
and hail. Many of the models and the NBM seem to be significantly
under representing the storm potential, so have increased POPs
from NBM for today and this evening. Storm potential will decrease
late this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Some lingering storm potential will continue in the day and early
evening Wednesday, mainly in the southeast. Otherwise it looks
like the precipitation potential is at a minimum Wednesday night
into Thursday with more ridging aloft pushing into the Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue into Friday, with
high temperatures in the 90s and heat index values potentially
reaching 105 degrees in the southeastern parts of the forecast area
again.

Forecast models show a cold front approaching the region Friday
night. There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact timing and
strength of this front, as it appears to give us only a glancing
blow. Still, its passage will bring another round of thunderstorm
chances, followed by a brief cooldown in temperatures this weekend
that will be most noticeable across northern Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of the fa
this evening. Storms are expected to weaken/dissipate after
sunset. Strong variable winds will be possible near some of the
storms. Scattered showers/storms will be possible again Wednesday
afternoon in parts of the fa. VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected this
TAF period. Winds will generally be from the S and SE except those
locations where outflow boundary moves through which would cause
shifting winds for a brief period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  93  72  95 /  30  10   0   0
Hobart OK         70  98  72 100 /  30   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  96  74  98 /  20  10  10   0
Gage OK           67  96  70  99 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     70  93  72  95 /  20  10  10   0
Durant OK         73  92  73  95 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...25