348 FXUS64 KOUN 262222 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 522 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 521 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 - Slight chance for storms this afternoon and early evening across southeast Oklahoma. Main hazard will be strong wind gusts. - Dangerous heat continues into the middle of next week. - Increased rain chances and cooler temperatures may return towards the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 The mid-level ridge will build over the area with daytime mixing coupled with the strengthening low-level thermal ridge giving way to the continued hot trend today. High temperatures will hover just around or slightly above normal in the mid-90s to lower triple digits. The thermal ridge will be warmest over western Oklahoma and into western north Texas and thus this is where the hottest temperatures are expected. A swath of dry air is draped north to south across west-central Oklahoma this afternoon, which is helping to limit heat indices going into this afternoon. In conjunction with the retrograding ridge aloft, a surface high will build westward into the Gulf off the coast of the Florida Panhandle. Evident on visible satellite imagery and through observations, low-level moisture is being pumped northward into eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma with south-southeasterly surface flow. Thus, dewpoints in the 70s will persist through the day across much of the eastern half of Oklahoma. Heat indices have already risen to above 100 degrees today across portions of the area. A Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon and evening across all but portions of west/northwest Oklahoma through 8 PM for heat indices up to 110 degrees. With afternoon surface heating, surface-based instability will increase as the capping inversion erodes across much of Oklahoma. Moisture content and forcing will be lacking across much of the area, but thunderstorm chances will increase across southeast Oklahoma where low-level moisture will be in greater abundance. Plenty of SBCAPE in excess of 1500-2000 J/kg will help develop some isolated to scattered showers and storms, but minimal shear will give pulse-like storm modes. If a strong storm were to develop, gusty downburst winds would be the primary hazard. PWATs will be between the 90th to 99th percentile around 1.75-2 inches, so any storm that does develop will be efficient rainfall producers with brief heavy downpours possible. Weak flow aloft will give way to slow northward storm motion. Localized flooding is possible, but not a huge concern given the low coverage of storms expected this afternoon/evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 The upper ridge will continue to retrograde westward with continued height rises through Monday. Temperatures will be in the 90s with some triple digit heat in northwest Oklahoma where the low-level thermal ridge will be the warmest. The trickiest portion of the forecast for Sunday remains to be the dewpoints. The surface high will continue to build westward as well with southeast winds becoming predominantly southerly to southwesterly. This will allow for mixing of drier air into Oklahoma, shoving the better low- level moisture eastward. Model output has various solutions for how strong the mixing is Sunday, thus the current forecast follows the trend of the NBM. A Heat Advisory for tomorrow afternoon has been issued across portions of northern, central and into southeast Oklahoma for heat indices up to 105 to 108 degrees expected and some localized areas of up to 110 degrees possible. However, recent mean runs of the HREF are starting to hint at stronger mixing and lower dewpoints so there is a potential expected heat indices could lower. By Monday, widespread 90 degree and localized triple digit heat is expected to start the work week. Much of the higher dewpoints and low-level moisture will be confined to central and eastern Oklahoma with the highest heat indices focused there. However, it will still be hot and humid with potential widespread heat indices above 100 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 The consensus among deterministic models and ensemble members is the ridge will continue to dominate the weather across Oklahoma and north Texas at least through the day Wednesday. Therefore, afternoon highs are forecast to slowly rise through Wednesday with highs in the upper 90s and low 100s deg F with limited/near zero chances for rain. By late Wednesday through the latter half of the week, the ridge may retrograde far enough to the west to place the Southern Plains into northwest or northerly flow aloft. This pattern may allow mesoscale convective complexes (MCSs) and effective cold fronts to impact parts of the Southern Plains as shortwaves rotate around the periphery of the ridge. As a result, there is chance of showers/storms beginning Wednesday night through Saturday. Forecast highs also trend lower toward the end of the week. Probabilistic guidance indicates a 40 to 70% chance of high temperatures below 90 deg F across the northern half of Oklahoma by next Saturday (August 2). Mahale && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Thunderstorms in the vicinity of KDUA will remain possible over the next few hours, and should dissipate with sunset. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with breezy southerly winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 77 95 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 76 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 77 97 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 99 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 76 96 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 76 95 76 99 / 10 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013- 017>020-023>048-050>052. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ005>008- 011>013-017>020-024>026-029>032-042-043-047-048-051-052. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...01