039 FXUS64 KOUN 081821 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 121 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 120 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - Scattered storms this afternoon/evening bring a risk of localized flooding and damaging winds. - Hot and humid conditions Thursday and Friday with heat indices near 105 deg F possible in the southeast. - Another chance for storms arrives with a front this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 An outflow boundary continues to move south across northern Oklahoma this morning and the airmass is becoming uncapped. We are seeing storms beginning to develop along this boundary early this afternoon and this is expected to become more widespread this afternoon. Mixed layer instability of 2000-3000 J/kg will be sufficient for some strong to severe storms, with the strong winds and hail. Many of the models and the NBM seem to be significantly under representing the storm potential, so have increased POPs from NBM for today and this evening. Storm potential will decrease late this evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Some lingering storm potential will continue in the day and early evening Wednesday, mainly in the southeast. Otherwise it looks like the precipitation potential is at a minimum Wednesday night into Thursday with more ridging aloft pushing into the Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue into Friday, with high temperatures in the 90s and heat index values potentially reaching 105 degrees in the southeastern parts of the forecast area again. Forecast models show a cold front approaching the region Friday night. There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact timing and strength of this front, as it appears to give us only a glancing blow. Still, its passage will bring another round of thunderstorm chances, followed by a brief cooldown in temperatures this weekend that will be most noticeable across northern Oklahoma. Day && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Isolated rain/storms developing along an outflow boundary currently moving into central Oklahoma will continue to dig southward with 30% probabilities for TSRA across all but our northernmost terminals (KWWR & KPNC) at least through 23Z. Although most of our terminals should stay in a VFR Category, any storms passing over any affected terminals could briefly reduce to a MVFR category due to reduced visibilities in rain and potentially a lower ceiling. Patchy radiational fog may develop across southeast Oklahoma after 10Z which could reduce the visibilities to an MVFR Category at terminal KDUA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 71 93 72 95 / 30 10 0 0 Hobart OK 70 98 72 100 / 30 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 73 96 74 98 / 20 10 10 0 Gage OK 67 96 70 99 / 20 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 70 93 72 95 / 20 10 10 0 Durant OK 73 92 73 95 / 30 20 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...68