459 FXUS64 KOUN 031806 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK 106 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 101 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 - Severe storms expected this afternoon and tonight. - Heavy, potentially flooding fainfall is possible through tonight. - Shower and storm chances continue much of next week, with heavy rainfall and severe weather possible. - Much cooler weather expected Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 Ongoing severe convection will continue along and ahead of an advancing cold front, which will move through central into southeast Oklahoma this afternoon and this evening. Much drier and cooler air will overspread the the area behind the cold front. Temperatures may fall into the upper 40s across northwest Oklahoma by morning with 50s across much of the rest of the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 We get a bit of a lull in the activity for Wednesday with a cool and mostly cloudy day. Afternoon highs will mainly be in the 70s, some 10 degrees below normal for early June. Another shortwave trough will eject out of the southern Rockies into the Plains tonight bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms first to western Oklahoma overnight and over the entire area on Thursday morning, which could pose a low end severe risk. By Thursday afternoon, additional convection is expected to develop across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma along a warm front. This is expected to develop into a complex of storms (MCS) that will propogate east/southeast aross mainly southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma and will pose a damaging wind and hail risk along with very heavy rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 120 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 An outflow boundary or effective cold front should be located across central and or southern Oklahoma Friday night. There`s some evidence of another wave providing additional lift for storms Friday afternoon and evening. There will be a continued risk of high rainfall rates with storms that form and a risk of strong to severe storms. Another shortwave trough approaching in northwest flow, and a surface front/elevated boundary, may focus another round of strong storms late Saturday into Sunday morning. At this time, it appears southern Oklahoma and northern Texas will be the favored area for this activity. It`s possible that enough drier air will advect into the southern Plains, that most of Sunday will be dry. The active pattern will likely persist into early next week with additional chances of thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 Gusty south to southwest winds will continue this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms becoming numerous to widespread impacting all sites this afternoon. Expect a line of storms to move west to east across the area this evening as a cold front sweeps southeast through the area. Some MVFR and low chance of IFR conditions are possible associated with the storms and some areas of low clouds elsewhere. Also strong north winds will accompany the front but should diminish Wednesday morning with clearing skies toward the end of the forecast across the west. && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...30