189
FXUS64 KTSA 261754
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

 - Dangerous heat and humidity likely to continue through mid
   week. Expect daily heat headlines.

 - Low thunderstorm chances northwest of I-44 through late this
   afternoon.

 - Low to medium thunderstorm chances from southeast Oklahoma
   into western Arkansas in association with an increase in
   moisture from the south both this afternoon and again Sunday
   afternoon.

-  Cooler conditions and low thunderstorm chances late next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The main concern today is the ongoing hot and humid conditions, with
very moist conditions leading to higher heat index values than seen
yesterday. Dew points today are in the mid to upper 70s areawide,
pushing late morning heat index values into the 100 to 105 degree
range already, despite increased low and mid cloudiness in most
locations. The dew point forecast for this afternoon has been
adjusted upward using the NBM`s 75th percentile, which has a fairly
good handle on current values and expected trends. A portion of
northeast and east central Oklahoma has been upgraded to an Extreme
Heat Warning given the current heat indices already pushing advisory
criteria with plenty of warming to go. Choctaw and Pushmataha
counties have also been added to the existing advisory given the
scattering out of the early morning cloud cover and mesonet
observations already showing triple digit heat indices at Hugo and
Antlers.

Besides the heat and humidity today, also monitoring the ongoing
small and widely scattered showers to the northwest of I-44 in
northeast Oklahoma. CAMs indicate that this activity will continue
to fester through the afternoon and as such, the NBM initialization
has been adjusted upward using the short-term blend. The better
chance for showers and thunderstorms remains focused in portions of
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon in response
to the disturbance in east Texas, with lower chances lingering into
the evening. This activity should fade toward early Sunday morning,
leaving a mix of low and mid cloud. Overnight lows will continue to
be warm in most areas given the high moisture present.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Another day, another Heat Advisory has been issued for Sunday,
despite the expectation of lower dew points than seen today. Given
the lower moisture, the southern edge of the advisory area for
tomorrow is on the conservative side as a starting point and could
definitely see at least Pittsburg and Latimer counties being added
on future shifts and possibly additional counties in northwest
Arkansas. Eastern portions of the forecast area will still be
feeling the influence of the aforementioned disturbance, with low
thunderstorm chances again during the afternoon.

The early to middle part of the next work week remain likely to
feature the warmest temperatures so far this summer as the upper
level high in the southeastern United States shifts westward. At
least a few locations should see triple digit ambient temperatures
during this time frame, although there is some concern that the
current high bias in the NBM initialization regarding high
temperatures will extend into next week as well. As such, high
temperatures Monday through Wednesday have been nudged down a couple
of degrees by mixing in the NBM`s 25th percentile values, which have
verified better the last several of these hot days, with the NBM
initialization values. Daily heat headlines, including potential for
warnings, should be expected.

The latter part of next week remains likely to feature cooler
temperatures and low shower and thunderstorm chances, although it
still remains in question how much cooler and wetter the area will
actually be. The upper level high will continue its westward shift,
with more west-northwest flow aloft developing by the weekend, with
potential for a cool front to move through portions of the area.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at all
terminal locations. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected by early this afternoon across far
southeast OK into western AR, with PROB30 carried at KFSM. Any
direct impact from a storms could briefly result in MVFR
conditions. Low probability will exist Sunday morning for low
ceilings to spread back into SE OK and WC AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  80  97 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   78  94  78  97 /  20  20   0   0
MLC   76  93  77  96 /  10  20   0   0
BVO   76  95  76  97 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   74  91  74  94 /  10  20   0   0
BYV   74  92  74  96 /   0  20   0  10
MKO   76  93  77  96 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   76  95  77  96 /  10  10   0   0
F10   75  94  77  96 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   75  93  75  94 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>055-059-
     063>065-068-072>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ054>068-
     070>072-074-076.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ056>058-
     060>062-066-067-070-071.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14