189 FXUS64 KTSA 261754 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 - Dangerous heat and humidity likely to continue through mid week. Expect daily heat headlines. - Low thunderstorm chances northwest of I-44 through late this afternoon. - Low to medium thunderstorm chances from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas in association with an increase in moisture from the south both this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. - Cooler conditions and low thunderstorm chances late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 The main concern today is the ongoing hot and humid conditions, with very moist conditions leading to higher heat index values than seen yesterday. Dew points today are in the mid to upper 70s areawide, pushing late morning heat index values into the 100 to 105 degree range already, despite increased low and mid cloudiness in most locations. The dew point forecast for this afternoon has been adjusted upward using the NBM`s 75th percentile, which has a fairly good handle on current values and expected trends. A portion of northeast and east central Oklahoma has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning given the current heat indices already pushing advisory criteria with plenty of warming to go. Choctaw and Pushmataha counties have also been added to the existing advisory given the scattering out of the early morning cloud cover and mesonet observations already showing triple digit heat indices at Hugo and Antlers. Besides the heat and humidity today, also monitoring the ongoing small and widely scattered showers to the northwest of I-44 in northeast Oklahoma. CAMs indicate that this activity will continue to fester through the afternoon and as such, the NBM initialization has been adjusted upward using the short-term blend. The better chance for showers and thunderstorms remains focused in portions of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon in response to the disturbance in east Texas, with lower chances lingering into the evening. This activity should fade toward early Sunday morning, leaving a mix of low and mid cloud. Overnight lows will continue to be warm in most areas given the high moisture present. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Another day, another Heat Advisory has been issued for Sunday, despite the expectation of lower dew points than seen today. Given the lower moisture, the southern edge of the advisory area for tomorrow is on the conservative side as a starting point and could definitely see at least Pittsburg and Latimer counties being added on future shifts and possibly additional counties in northwest Arkansas. Eastern portions of the forecast area will still be feeling the influence of the aforementioned disturbance, with low thunderstorm chances again during the afternoon. The early to middle part of the next work week remain likely to feature the warmest temperatures so far this summer as the upper level high in the southeastern United States shifts westward. At least a few locations should see triple digit ambient temperatures during this time frame, although there is some concern that the current high bias in the NBM initialization regarding high temperatures will extend into next week as well. As such, high temperatures Monday through Wednesday have been nudged down a couple of degrees by mixing in the NBM`s 25th percentile values, which have verified better the last several of these hot days, with the NBM initialization values. Daily heat headlines, including potential for warnings, should be expected. The latter part of next week remains likely to feature cooler temperatures and low shower and thunderstorm chances, although it still remains in question how much cooler and wetter the area will actually be. The upper level high will continue its westward shift, with more west-northwest flow aloft developing by the weekend, with potential for a cool front to move through portions of the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at all terminal locations. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected by early this afternoon across far southeast OK into western AR, with PROB30 carried at KFSM. Any direct impact from a storms could briefly result in MVFR conditions. Low probability will exist Sunday morning for low ceilings to spread back into SE OK and WC AR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 95 80 97 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 78 94 78 97 / 20 20 0 0 MLC 76 93 77 96 / 10 20 0 0 BVO 76 95 76 97 / 10 10 0 0 FYV 74 91 74 94 / 10 20 0 0 BYV 74 92 74 96 / 0 20 0 10 MKO 76 93 77 96 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 76 95 77 96 / 10 10 0 0 F10 75 94 77 96 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 75 93 75 94 / 20 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>055-059- 063>065-068-072>076. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ054>068- 070>072-074-076. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ056>058- 060>062-066-067-070-071. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-019-020-029. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-019-020- 029. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...14