486
FXUS64 KTSA 121114
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
614 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
- Rain showers along with scattered thunderstorm chances
continue through Friday with upper low lifting through the
region. A locally heavy rainfall threat exists over southeast
Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Flooding may become a concern.
- Rain chances continue into the weekend but coverage is
forecast to decrease. Temperatures near mid June normals.
- Warming trend and humid conditions for the first half of next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
The much advertised area of low pressure, centered over north
central Texas early this morning, was continuing its northeastward
track toward eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Widespread
rain showers were ongoing from southeast Kansas through southern
Texas. Associated convection was mainly confined south of the Red
River where most of the elevated instability resided.
Through the day today, the mid/upper area of low pressure will
move over top of the CWA with continued widespread rain showers
and scattered thunderstorms forecast. Latest indications continue
to show the greater surface and elevated instability remaining
south and east of the CWA as we sit underneath the low. Thus,
will continue with chance thunder potentials across southeast
Oklahoma into western Arkansas and lesser potentials into
northeast Oklahoma. In response, severe weather potentials today
should continue to remain low for the CWA.
The track of the low pressure system also looks to keep the more
significant moisture and precipitable water values in excess of
2" just southeast of the CWA through tonight. This has adjusted
the heavy rain axis to just southeast and east of the CWA, with
forecast rainfall amounts near 1 inch to locally exceeding 1.5
inches across far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas
through tonight. Any slight shift northward/westward could bring
greater rainfall to these locations as the western portion of the
heavy rain axis looks to be across McCurtain co of southeast
Oklahoma to Scott co of western Arkansas. These rains on top of
recent rains could create localized areas of increased flood
concerns.
Tonight, the low pressure center is progged to be moving into far
southwest Missouri around/just after 12z Friday. Rain showers
along with slight to low end chance thunder potentials will remain
across the CWA tonight. The greater thunder potentials will be
across the eastern half of the CWA, while rain showers wrap around
the low back into northeast Oklahoma. A continued locally heavy
rain threat exists through tonight.
With the system and associated rain chances moving through today,
afternoon temperatures look to only warm into the 70s to near 80
deg. This could be the last of cooler temperatures for a while.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
The low pressure center lifts into Missouri Friday while the upper
level trof remains over the eastern portion of the CWA into
Saturday before moving off to the east. Rain showers are forecast
to continue to wrap around the low and spread across the CWA
Friday. Again, will continue with slight to chance thunder
potentials. However, increasing instability looks to try to lift
north of the Red River behind the exiting disturbance. A locally
heavy rain threat continues Friday across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas.
Additional shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast Saturday with
the upper level trof still over the eastern portion of the region.
PoPs continue Sunday into Monday from another weak disturbance/vort
max looking to move southeast within the northwesterly upper level
flow across the Central/Southern Plains. Once this second wave
exits, a warming trend with humid conditions are forecast for the
first half of next week. High temperatures climbing into the
low/mid 90s and heat index values up around 100 deg are forecast
Tuesday. There are indications of another shortwave trying to move
through the region around the middle part of next week and for now
will add slight chance PoPs to the forecast. Otherwise, the
warm/humid conditions look to continue into the second half of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
Ongoing showers across NE OK into far NW AR will slowly lift
northward while an expanding area of showers and scattered storms
lifts northward from far SE OK into the local region. No obvious
precip timing window within the forecast period as upper low
slowly moves across the region which results in a broad mention
of prevailing showers. Expect a mix of low VFR to MVFR ceilings to
largely prevail through the day with briefly lower ceilings with
any heavier rains. A more solid expanse of lower ceilings expected
tonight with low MVFR to IFR criteria expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 78 69 83 69 / 60 50 40 10
FSM 78 70 82 70 / 90 60 70 40
MLC 77 67 84 71 / 70 30 50 20
BVO 78 67 82 67 / 60 50 40 10
FYV 76 66 77 66 / 90 70 70 30
BYV 77 68 77 66 / 80 80 80 30
MKO 77 68 81 69 / 80 40 60 20
MIO 78 68 80 67 / 70 60 40 10
F10 77 67 82 69 / 60 30 50 20
HHW 75 68 86 72 / 80 40 40 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07