558 FXUS64 KOUN 111128 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 628 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 620 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - Severe storms are possible early this morning. Main hazards are damaging wind gusts and flash flooding. - Temperatures "cooling" slightly below average early to middle of the week, gradually warming into next weekend. - Low chances for showers and storms continue much of the week, with highest chances today and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Numerous thunderstorms have developed along a stationary boundary draped across northern Oklahoma this evening, supported by a modest south-southwesterly low-level jet nearly perpendicular to the boundary. Ample atmospheric moisture (PWATs 1.7-1.9"), along with training of storms over the same areas, will lead to a continuation of flooding concerns along this corridor over the next several hours. Localized amounts of 3-5" have already been reported, with flash flooding ongoing in some areas. Several more inches of rain are possible in some spots before activity diminishes later this morning. In addition to the flash flooding threat, the stronger storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts, possibly in excess of 70 mph. There will likely be a lull in shower and thunderstorm activity from late morning through mid afternoon before another round of storms is expected to develop along the outflow/frontal boundary. Highest storm chances will be along and northwest of the I-44 corridor during the afternoon and evening, with activity then likely weakening as it drifts southeastward across the rest of the area overnight. The stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds and heavy rainfall with localized flooding a concern once again. Ware && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Shower and storm chances continue into Tuesday and Wednesday, though overall coverage is expected to decrease during this period as troughing begins to weaken and forcing becomes more nebulous. As of now the highest PoPs (20-40%) are centered across central and southeastern parts of the area. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side of average with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each day. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Upper ridging will begin to rebuild across the southeastern US as we head into the end of the week into the weekend. This should lead to a rebound in temperatures, with highs pushing near or slightly above seasonal averages (mid to upper 90s) by Saturday and Sunday. Rain/storm chances are expected to decrease during this period but not disappear altogether as the center of the upper ridge will be far enough from the area to allow for at least slight chances (10-20%) for storms to continue into the weekend. Ware && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 An outflow boundary associated with widespread convection across northern Oklahoma overnight will continue to push southward this morning before stalling. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through about 15Z with lingering clouds through the day. Additional thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon, perhaps along and near a SWO to CSM boundary. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings and visibility will occur with the stronger storms this evening and overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 93 70 89 71 / 30 60 30 20 Hobart OK 96 68 90 69 / 20 60 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 97 72 92 72 / 10 20 20 10 Gage OK 88 64 88 64 / 40 60 20 10 Ponca City OK 90 69 88 69 / 60 70 40 20 Durant OK 95 73 94 73 / 10 10 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ004>008-010>013. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...06