096
FXUS64 KTSA 091124
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

  - Storms ending this morning with mostly dry and warm days today
    and Tuesday

  - Slow moving wave increases rain chances Wednesday with
    widespread showers and scattered storms Thursday and Friday.
    Locally heavy rainfall possible. Flooding may become a
    concern.

  - Rain chances continue into the weekend but coverage is
    forecast to decrease. Temps near mid June normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Scattered showers and storms continue across NE OK into far NW AR
with a decreasing coverage trend expected through mid morning.
Warm afternoon with lower dewpoints and the drier air will allow
overnight lows to fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

The primary storm track through Tuesday will remain well south of
the forecast area, however a signal for isolated showers and
storms Tuesday afternoon warrants a low mention. Otherwise warm
and dry conditions prevail.

Weak wave currently moving into the western CONUS will gradually
develop into a closed mid level low over TX by Wednesday and lift
slowly ENE across the local region through Saturday. Plume of deep
moisture will be drawn northward in advance of the wave with
precip chances beginning to increase Wednesday and fairly
widespread coverage forecast Thursday and Friday. Limited
instability and weak flow will reduce any severe threat, however
forecast soundings suggest efficient rainfall rates coupled with
likely repeated high coverage periods to produce locally heavy
rainfall amounts through Saturday. Precip amounts will continue to
be refined but flooding concerns may develop given the overall
pattern.

Daily precip chances remain in the forecast through next weekend
but an overall decreasing trend in coverage is expected once the
wave passes. Warmer temps return over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Remaining light showers in far northwest Arkansas should move east
of the TAF sites over the next hour. Mid and high level clouds
will then continue to scatter out this morning from west to east
across the CWA with mostly clear to passing high clouds this
evening/tonight. Winds through this afternoon are expected to vary
from westerly to northerly and become light/variable tonight as
winds begin to return out of the south. VFR conditions are
currently forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  62  88  66 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   88  63  90  66 /  20   0  20   0
MLC   86  63  87  65 /  10   0  20   0
BVO   85  56  87  63 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   84  58  85  63 /  20   0  10   0
BYV   83  56  85  62 /  30   0  10   0
MKO   84  62  87  65 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   83  56  85  65 /   0   0  10   0
F10   84  63  87  65 /  10   0  20   0
HHW   86  64  87  65 /  20   0  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20