162 FXUS64 KTSA 080041 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 741 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 - Mild and dry week ahead. - Breezy conditions Wednesday ahead of a weak front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 741 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Surface ridging and clear skies will set the stage for another below average cool night across the region. The main difference from last night is that temps during the day got considerably warmer than yesterday. Nonetheless, some frost is possible by Tuesday morning mainly to the north and east of Tulsa. Going forecast lined up with the bias corrected model blend and was at the bottom of the guidance spread, and have elected to keep this going. The going Frost Advisory will be left intact as well. Some smoke was inserted into the evening grids to the north and west of Tulsa as smoke from fires up in Kansas moves into the area this evening. The vsby at KBVO was recently reduced to 5 miles in haze. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Surface ridge axis will settle over far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight. Calm winds and clear skies will lead to another crisp night tonight with temperatures dropping into the 30s for most locations. Some locations will see temps drop near freezing again overnight and some areas of frost will be possible tonight, with the best chances across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas where a Frost Advisory has been issued for late tonight. Otherwise tranquil weather will dominate the period. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 A quiet weather week is in store for the forecast area, with no precipitation chances for the next seven days. Tuesday will see temperatures warm back into the 70s with southerly winds returning to the region. A weak cold front is slated to move through late in the day Wednesday. More breezy conditions will develop ahead of the boundary Wednesday afternoon, but otherwise no impactful weather is anticipated with this front. The frontal passage will knock temperatures back a little for the latter part of the work week before warming back up into the weekend ahead of the next storm system. Winds will pick up again this weekend ahead of the next front as temperatures warm into the 80s across a good portion of the forecast area. The next front looks to move through toward the end of this forecast period. Rain chances continue to look minimal with this system, but some low chances could evolve throughout the week as guidance continues to come in. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 A weak surface boundary will push southward into eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening with a brief period of few/scattered mid clouds and north to northwesterly winds. Through the evening hours these clouds dissipate along with winds becoming light/variable as surface high pressure moves through the region. During the day Tuesday, surface high pressure departs with a return of southerly winds during the afternoon hours. VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 37 71 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 40 70 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 39 72 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 32 71 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 35 67 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 34 64 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 37 70 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 32 66 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 F10 37 71 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 38 70 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ056>058-063. AR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010- 011. && $$ UPDATE...30 SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...20