162
FXUS64 KTSA 080041
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
741 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

  - Mild and dry week ahead.

  - Breezy conditions Wednesday ahead of a weak front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 741 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Surface ridging and clear skies will set the stage for another
below average cool night across the region. The main difference
from last night is that temps during the day got considerably
warmer than yesterday. Nonetheless, some frost is possible by
Tuesday morning mainly to the north and east of Tulsa. Going
forecast lined up with the bias corrected model blend and was at
the bottom of the guidance spread, and have elected to keep this
going. The going Frost Advisory will be left intact as well. Some
smoke was inserted into the evening grids to the north and west of
Tulsa as smoke from fires up in Kansas moves into the area this
evening. The vsby at KBVO was recently reduced to 5 miles in haze.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Surface ridge axis will settle over far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas tonight. Calm winds and clear skies will lead
to another crisp night tonight with temperatures dropping into the
30s for most locations. Some locations will see temps drop near
freezing again overnight and some areas of frost will be possible
tonight, with the best chances across far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas where a Frost Advisory has been issued for late
tonight. Otherwise tranquil weather will dominate the period.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

A quiet weather week is in store for the forecast area, with no
precipitation chances for the next seven days. Tuesday will see
temperatures warm back into the 70s with southerly winds returning
to the region. A weak cold front is slated to move through late in
the day Wednesday. More breezy conditions will develop ahead of
the boundary Wednesday afternoon, but otherwise no impactful
weather is anticipated with this front. The frontal passage will
knock temperatures back a little for the latter part of the work
week before warming back up into the weekend ahead of the next
storm system. Winds will pick up again this weekend ahead of the
next front as temperatures warm into the 80s across a good portion
of the forecast area. The next front looks to move through toward
the end of this forecast period. Rain chances continue to look
minimal with this system, but some low chances could evolve
throughout the week as guidance continues to come in.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

A weak surface boundary will push southward into eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas this evening with a brief period of
few/scattered mid clouds and north to northwesterly winds. Through
the evening hours these clouds dissipate along with winds
becoming light/variable as surface high pressure moves through the
region. During the day Tuesday, surface high pressure departs with
a return of southerly winds during the afternoon hours. VFR
conditions should prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  71  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   40  70  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   39  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  71  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   35  67  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   34  64  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   37  70  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   32  66  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
F10   37  71  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   38  70  47  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ056>058-063.

AR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20