373
FXUS64 KTSA 180558
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1158 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

 - Low to medium rain chances continue ahead of approaching cold
   front Thursday morning; only light rain amounts expected.

 - Higher grassland fire weather conditions develop Thursday
   afternoon with gusty northwest winds behind the front.

 - Dry and mild conditions continue into the weekend. Much above
   normal temperatures likely early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

A strong low level jet of 40-50+KT combined with isentropic lift
and increasing moisture advection were common across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Wednesday night ahead of a cold
front approaching from the northwest. These conditions were and
will continue to create scattered areas of drizzle and reduced
visibility becoming rain chances into Thursday morning as
increased vorticity moves into the CWA ahead of the frontal
passage. Greater potential for light precip is across parts of
southeast and far eastern Oklahoma as well as western Arkansas
into Thursday morning. Otherwise, southerly winds of 20 to 35 mph
and cloud cover will keep low temperatures from falling much with
lows in the 50s for most locations.

The cold front moves into northeast Oklahoma around 12z Thursday
and is progged to exit southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
midday/early afternoon. Precipitation chances taper off and exit
from west to east with the movement of the front. The main impact
with the frontal passage will be the northwesterly winds gusting
30 to 40 mph and transporting drier air into the CWA late morning
through Thursday afternoon. The combination of these conditions
will elevate fire weather dangers across much of the CWA. Area of
greater concern is across northeast Oklahoma, where the stronger
winds and afternoon min relative humidity values of 15 to 25
percent should be co-located and create elevated to near critical
grassland fire spread rates. Conditions will need to be monitored
closely as there may be a brief window northwest of Interstate 44
where isolated gusts reach Wind Advisory criteria and approach Red
Flag conditions. For now have held off on a wind advisory as this
window looks to be short lived early-mid afternoon and issued a
Fire Danger Statement for northeast Oklahoma. Across the rest of
the CWA, limited to elevated fire weather danger develops Thursday
afternoon, though in a shorter period compared to northeast
Oklahoma.

Winds Thursday evening into the overnight hours subside as surface
high pressure filters through the region in the wake of the
departing low pressure system and cold front. Mostly clear
conditions, light winds, and drier air over the CWA Thursday night
will aid in max radiational cooling with lows dropping into the
20s to low 30s. This looks to be only widespread freeze within the
forecast package.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1158 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Surface high pressure exits Friday morning, allowing for a quick
return of increasing southerly low level flow. Southerly winds
gusting 15 to 30 mph are forecast Friday afternoon, potentially
weakening for a period Friday evening/night, and then increasing
again Saturday ahead of a frontal boundary moving through
Saturday afternoon/evening. Limited moisture for this boundary to
work with should keep the frontal passage dry Saturday. At the
same time though, limited to elevated fire weather dangers develop
Friday afternoon and Saturday from the gusty winds and continued
drier conditions.

Cooler conditions and lighter winds setup across the CWA Sunday
while another round of surface high pressure slides through the
region. These conditions are anticipated to be short-lived with
southerly winds and a warming trend returning Monday through the
first half of the week. High temperatures by the middle part of
next week could warm into the 70s for much of the CWA. Aloft a
ridge of high pressure is forecast build over the southern Plains.
Thus, at this time, keeping a mostly dry forecast into Christmas
Day.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Mainly IFR conditions will continue overnight from southeast OK
through northwest AR with locally reduced vis 3-5 sm in patchy
drizzle or light rain showers. MVFR ceilings will be more favored
across northeast OK during this period. Winds remain gusty from
the south-southwest ahead of approaching cold front which will
cause winds to shift westerly with a brief reduction in gusts.
Flight conditions are expected to improve fairly quick with the
frontal passage, initially across northeast OK a little before
12z, and through northwest AR before 18z. Northwest winds behind
the front will gust 25-35 knots much of Thursday with clearing
skies and winds gradually dying down after 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  60  28  56 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   54  64  31  57 /  30  40   0   0
MLC   54  63  28  58 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   49  59  23  55 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   53  59  25  53 /  30  70   0   0
BYV   53  59  25  53 /  40  70   0   0
MKO   55  61  29  56 /  20  20   0   0
MIO   53  59  25  52 /  30  30   0   0
F10   54  61  29  57 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   54  63  34  57 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...14