079
FXUS64 KAMA 221124
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
524 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for the southern
Texas Panhandle. Outdoor burning and activities that cause open
sparks or flames should be avoided.

Well above normal temperatures this week may have minor impacts
on outdoor festivities. Greater than 80 degree temperatures in the
canyon each day this week will make conditions unseasonably warm
for hiking.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

High temperatures for Monday have just about settled in. As 500 mb
heights rise, mid and low level temperatures will climb as well due
to WAA promoted by a west-southwesterly wind flow. This wind
direction is forecast to prevail for the next 24 hours. The
locations slated to reach 80 degrees or higher encompass the central
and southern Texas Panhandle, primarily near and along the Canadian
River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon. The rest of the region will still
range in the mid to upper 70`s for the afternoon. Our climate sites
at Borger and Amarillo are forecast to break high temperature
records, but Dalhart still has a 25% chance, (according to this
morning`s HREF guidance), to stay below the record.

Another low level jet will set up over the region early this
morning. This time, the jet is forecast to only get up to 40 kts.
While the winds aloft are expected to mix down, surface winds should
only range between 10-20 mph. Later this afternoon, wind speeds
should increase to the 15-25 mph range. While critical fire weather
conditions are not expected to be met, we should reach elevated
status in the southern Texas Panhandle later this afternoon. Low RH
values are the driving component since winds speeds are not strong
enough on their own to inflate RFTI values. An RFD has been issued
for the southern two rows of counties in our CWA for elevated
conditions from 12 PM to 5 PM this afternoon.

The retreating H500 high will allow heights to decrease slightly
over the CWA on Tuesday. A surface low is forecast to develop over
the Oklahoma Panhandle and transition southeastward. This will be
accompanied by a weak cold front moving in from the north. During
this time frame, surface winds will become northerly for a few
hours. This alongside increasing sky coverage will let highs cool
down marginally in the northern zones of our CWA on Tuesday.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

While the strength of the H500 ridge continue to be shown in the
extended period, long range models are showing signals for a pattern
change approaching the end of the period. By next weekend, guidance
continues to display two schools of thought. The ECMWF and it`s
members show a fast moving upper level trough with minimal moisture
advection. This would promote colder, yet drier conditions over the
combined Panhandles. Meanwhile, the GFS and it`s members show a cut
off low developing in the southwest CONUS as the main trough moves
east. Though temperatures are forecast to be warmer with this
solution, mid-level Theta-E values increase as moisture advects from
the south. Thus, precipitation is possible if this forecast comes to
fruition.

In the meantime, well above normal temperatures will continue this
week. The upper level pattern should also remain stagnate until our
first weak cold front arrives on Friday. Highs during the day will
range in the 70`s, with some 80`s possible in the south. Lows will
be in the 40`s and 50`s. Next weekend, it`s difficult to tell where
temperatures will settle at this time given how different the model
solutions are. However, we should still have cooler highs compare to
the 70`s of this week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will be out of the southwest 10 to 15kts through at
least 00z, with winds becoming more 5-10kts and variable
thereafter. No cig or visibility restrictions expected.

Weber


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...89