695
FXUS64 KAMA 172334
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
534 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

- Elevated fire weather conditions remain possible for today and
  again Thursday a Panhandles experience dry and gusty conditions
  with the passage of a cold front.

- Temperatures are expected to stay well above normal for majority
  of this week and next week with temperatures potentially
  staying in the 70s clear through the holiday week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

The breezy to at times gusty south to southwest winds continues
across the Panhandles early this evening. The highest potential
gusts are starting to decrease and should continue to do so over
the next few hours, but the winds will remain breezy through the
whole night. A cold front will move across the area tonight with
winds out of the north by sunrise tomorrow morning. With the winds
remaining breezy, lows tonight should generally remain above
freezing, but if winds decrease more than the forecast, some
locations may have temperatures drop quickly tonight.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

As of early this afternoon, latest observations continue to see a
lee-side surface low set up and hold just off the Southern Front
Range. The position of this low is expected to see a decent
pressure gradient set up across the Panhandles for this afternoon
and early evening, which typically sets the Western Panhandles up
for downsloping winds. As it stands, latest CAMs are indicating
that southwesterly winds should pick up around the noon time frame
with speed around 20 to 30 mph with gust nearing the 35 to 40 mph
mark. Unfortunately, these downsloping winds will also aid in
both heating up and drying out the Panhandles. As it stands
afternoon highs today are expected to reach into the 60s to low
70s, while relative humidity values bottom out under 15% in the
Western Panhandles. These dry and breezy conditions have triggered
some elevated fire weather concerns for the Northwestern
Panhandles where the winds are expected to be their strongest.

Moving into tonight and Thursday, models are still on track to see
the tail end of a cold front push across the Panhandles during the
overnight hours. While this front is not expected to bring any
chances of precipitation, a strong low-level jet is expected to
follow and keep the Panhandles a bit breezy for the night. This
jet does look to stick around through Thursday afternoon with
expectation to see another round of gusty northerly winds. The
strongest of these winds are expected to stay across the Eastern
Panhandles as the jet moves off over the course of the day in
association with the system well to our north. Unfortunately,
these winds are expected to trigger another round of elevated fire
weather conditions as model expect a vast majority of the
Panhandle to have relative humidity values under 20%. Once the jet
exits that evening, conditions should quiet down a bit for the
overnight. Otherwise, look for temperatures to be cooler for the
day with afternoon highs back into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

The exit of system over the Dakotas Thursday has models expecting
the Panhandles to fall under a more zonal upper-level flow for end
of the week. At the surface, this flow is expected to be
accompanied by high pressure, which should keep the Panhandles dry
and warm clear through Saturday. Afternoon temperatures will look
rebound quickly Friday with locations back into the 60s to 70s. As
for Saturday, model agreement does see the potential for another
downsloping event to take places, which could see temperatures
jump clear into the mid to upper 70s that afternoon.
Unfortunately, this would also come with breezy conditions and
chances of elevated fire weather as well. By Sunday, models do see
a bit of a switch up as a weak short wave push across the zonal
flow and force a dry cold front over the Panhandles. Once again,
chances of precipitation for the day are very low, but the front
will give us a little relief from the abnormal temperatures.
However, this relief looks to be brief as most models expect us
back into the 70s for the holiday week with a chance at a White
Christmas looking slim.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to continue at the terminals. Breezy
south to southwest winds will slowly turn to out of the north by
sunrise tomorrow morning. Winds will remain breezy over the next
24 hours, with sustained winds around 10-20 kts with gusts up to
30 kts. LLWS may develop at the terminals tonight, with winds
upwards of 50 kts between 1-2k ft agl. Some high clouds will
continue to stream in over the region.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05