457
FXUS64 KAMA 261136
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
636 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

As upper level high pressure settles in today, surface temperatures
will also increase areawide. Most locations are expected to stay in
the mid to upper 90`s with a few areas exceeding those values and
rising to the lower 100`s. Zone where 100 degrees are possible
include the Oklahoma Panhandle, southeast Texas Panhandle, the
Canadian River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon. Afternoon dewpoint
temperatures should range in the 60`s, allowing heat indices to
rise above the ambient temperature for many locations. That being
said, it may only feel 2-3 degrees warmer for these areas due to
the potential afternoon cloud coverage dropping surface
temperatures a few of degrees. Some thunderstorms may also
generate across central portions of the Texas Panhandle due to high
moisture lingering across the High Plains. Poor forcing and
lackluster wind shear will not allow these storms to become
organized or sustain for long periods of time. This activity will
subside as soon as they lose day time heating.

Sunday, high temperatures will reflect what we see today. If
dewpoints remain above 60 degrees tomorrow afternoon, heat index
values may exceed the actual temperature. Again, only by a few
degrees. A storm or two cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon and
evening, however, chances are lower than what they are today.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Long range forecast models show the upper level ridge retreating
westward over the course of next week. On Monday, guidance suggest
the center of the high will reside over the southeast CONUS. By
Wednesday, high pressure may be almost directly over the CWA and
should still be over portions of the area Thursday as well. By next
weekend, models show the ridge repositioning over the Four Corners
Region.

Overall, this pattern change does not alter the main message of
the forecast for next week. Still, there are some new key
takeaways. While high temperatures are still forecast to range in
the 90`s, Wednesday looks to be warmer than the others days of the
work week. The southeast Texas Panhandle in particular could see
temperatures rise into the triple digits once again. Since we have
the potential to return to northwest flow by the end of next
week, temperatures have a chance to stay near seasonal averages.
For those still keeping track, like myself, this may allow
Amarillo to stay below 100 degrees heading into August.

Thunderstorm potential remains low on Monday, but an isolated storm
or two cannot be completely ruled out as long as convective
temperatures are met. However, weak forcing will cripple the
thunderstorm sustainability. Better chances for thunderstorms begin
on Tuesday, due to perturbations developing off the incoming
ridge. Even so, these PoPs will mostly favor the northern zones
of our CWA. Better thunderstorm coverage may return later in the
week, but there are still disparities amongst long range guidance
as to how far south storms could develop.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will be in the 5 to 10 kt range and out of the south
to southeast. Isolated storms possible this afternoon, but very
low confidence (about 10 percent chance a storm happens), and if a
storm looks to impact a terminal, it will be dealt with via
amendments.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...89