193 FXUS64 KAMA 081130 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 630 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1023 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 -Low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms tonight and again afternoon and evening. -Small break from rain chances mid week will then return with thunderstorm chances Thursday into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A small weather system is passing into the northern panhandles early this morning causing a small area of thunderstorms. These thunderstorms find themselves within a marginal environment that is slowly getting less favorable through the early morning hours. Still these storms may last allowing them to penetrate into the north central TX panhandle before dissipating. There is a very small chance that a few of the storms could become strong with elevated cores that when they collapse produce localized strong downburst winds. The hail environment is very unfavorable with high freezing level so only the strongest of storms should be able to support hail formation which is a more remote possibility. After the storms dissipate the rest of the morning will have a high chance of seeing calm weather. It wont be until the later afternoon hours that daytime heating will destabilize the atmosphere enough to allow for the formation of rain showers and thunderstorms. The environment that these storms would form in is a marginal one with a 500 to 1000 j/kg of CAPE and almost no shear. The only real concern is the deep sub cloud base dry layer creating a inverted V environment that will allow for dry microbursts. This will allow for any shower or thunderstorms a very low chance to produce localized severe downburst winds. Overall coverage of the storms will most likely be small as the amount of moisture over the panhandles is decreasing as dry air moves it way into the area from the NW. Going into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning there is a low chance that a small weather system moved from KS across the far eastern OK and TX counties. If this occurs then it could cause some gusty winds during it passage. Going into Wednesday further dry air moving into the panhandles will most likely yield calm weather conditions. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be fully ruled out but it will definitely be an exception. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The dry air has a moderately high chance of remaining across the panhandle through the morning hours of Thursday. This will shift during the afternoon hours as a weather system pushes into the panhandles bringing moisture and unstable conditions back to the panhandles. This will have a low to moderate chance of sparking off rain showers and thunderstorms across the panhandles. Current indications of the environment indicate that this moisture will be over a layer of dry air creating elevated thunderstorms. This would allow for the Thunderstorms on Thursday to produce outflow winds. Thursday will also most likely be the hottest day of the week with spots reaching triple digits. So heat will be another weather risk for Thursday in addition to any thunderstorms. For Friday and into the weekend the pattern shift to a more NW flow which will allow further weather system and moisture to push across the panhandles. This would mean that the this time will remain active with rain showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 VFR conditions are forecast at the terminals over the next 24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening, but confidence in impacts at any one site is too low to mention at this time. If a thunderstorm does move over a site, low visibility from heavy rain and sporadic gusty winds would be possible. Otherwise, light winds around 10 kts or less are expected with this TAF cycle. Muscha && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...05