062
FXUS64 KAMA 231151
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
551 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

- Fog and dense fog this morning in the eastern panhandles.
  Potential fog for Monday night into Tuesday with possible
  further western extent.

- Cooler temperatures today and tomorrow with low clouds the next
  two mornings.

- Low precipitation chances return late Christmas Day into
  Thursday, but uncertainty remains high.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Increasing low level moisture and upper level moisture today,
along with a weak cold front are expected to keep daytime
temperatures closer to normal for this afternoon. An upper level
shortwave trough is expected to traverse the Southern Great Plains
tonight into tomorrow. A leeside surface low is developing over
SE CO and NE NM at this time. This low will bring up some low
level moisture into the eastern combined Panhandles on the eastern
periphery of the low. Increasing low clouds are already being
seen on satellite as of this writing. There is a concern that some
dense fog may develop between now and the morning commute across
the eastern combined Panhandles this morning.

Tonight, chances for fog return to the eastern combined Panhandles
once again with a small potential for fog reaching as far west as
Amarillo. The aforementioned surface low will dip south today and
begin to move east across portions of West Texas and the far
southern TX Panhandle tonight. This will give a chance for some
wrap around moisture to travel further west. Overall lift from the
upper level shortwave tonight will be weak and a dry low to mid
layer are expected. This will leave a moist surface layer without
lift to create any rain. However, this is likely to lead to some
misty or foggy conditions overnight into Tuesday morning. The
increase in moisture Tue morning is expected to keep temperatures
in the lower 40s for the southeastern TX Panhandle.

Cool conditions will continue tomorrow with upsloping winds, N
and E, with skies clearing out from west to east during the day.
Temperatures may be a few degrees warmer with highs making it into
the mid to upper 50s. With an upper level ridge progged to build
in over the area Tuesday night and not so calm winds, temperatures
area only expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s across the
southeastern two thirds of the FA. The NW third may barely get
below freezing around 31 for Wed morning.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

A breezy and slightly warmer than normal Christmas is in store for
the combined Panhandles. A system will potentially bring a cold
light rain to the area the day after Christmas. After Friday,
conditions look to warm to well above normal for the weekend once
again.

For Christmas, a short lived upper level ridge will set up over
the FA and Southern Great Plains ahead of low pressure system that
should be around the Four Corners Region by this time. This low
pressure system will bring with it some higher winds aloft leading
to breezy and possibly gusty winds for the Panhandles on
Christmas Day. Have stayed with the NBM values for now, but there
may be room to come up in the winds for Wed. For now looking at
southwest winds between 15 and 20 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. The
ridge and southwesterly winds ahead of the system is expected to
warm conditions to mid to upper 50s.

Come Thursday, depending on the path the aforementioned upper low
takes, portions of the combined Panhandles could see some light
rain and slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday. Have stayed
with the NBM PoPs for now, which give a widespread 30 to 40
percent chance across the entire combined Panhandles after
midnight Thu. Some deterministic models like the GFS still have
the low travel in such a way that dry slots a good portion of the
combined Panhandles. This means no measurable rain for the
central to southwestern combined Panhandles to include Amarillo.
QPF is still a bit uncertain as well, with measurable rain being
anywhere from a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch.

This main closed low should exit the area Thu night. However,
model solutions diverge at this time with Fri being a bit
uncertain. A subsequent shortwave or two could potentially try to
linger some light precipitation chances for Fri. Overall though,
upper level ridging should bring well above normal temps and dry
conditions back to the FA by Sat or Sun. The NBM gives a high of
66 for Amarillo Sunday afternoon at this time.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 410 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Low clouds and fog are expected to be present in the eastern
combined Panhandles through the day today. KAMA, KDHT, and KGUY
should remain VFR as these conditions stay east of the terminals
at least through 00Z Tue. After 00Z Tue KAMA and KGUY may receive
some MVFR CIGs. Winds will remain primarily northerly around 10 to
15 kts through 00Z Tue before dropping to 10 kts or less.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                54  35  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  52  32  56  32 /   0  10   0   0
Boise City OK              52  28  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  53  36  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              57  29  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  56  34  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               55  40  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 55  27  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  52  29  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                59  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                51  39  55  36 /  10  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   51  37  55  36 /   0  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                56  42  57  37 /  10  10   0   0
Wellington TX              58  43  58  38 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ004-005-
     009-010-014-015-019-020.

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36