311
FXUS64 KAMA 220630
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
130 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms potential this evening into the
  morning hours of Monday, mainly for the northern combined
  Panhandles for large hail and damaging winds.

- Daily thunderstorm chances continues through most of next week,
  varying in coverage, especially in the evening and overnight
  hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A cold front is passing north to south across the panhandles this
morning bringing moisture back across the panhandles. This is
causing an elevated unstable environment across the panhandles
that is the cause of the ongoing nocturnal thunderstorms.
Currently there is 1000 to 2500 J/Kg across much of the
panhandles with shear of 20 to 40 kt. This introduces a low chance
for these storms to become strong to severe with the main threat
being large hail and damaging winds. These storms will continue
through to the mid morning when they will most likely start to end
as the forcing from the front weakens. This will leave the rest
of the morning with mainly cloudy skies as the cold front has
brought a deck of clouds across much of the panhandles. This bank
of clouds will slowly lift and scatter with partially sunny skies
returning during the afternoon. Still the unstable elevated
environment will remain across the panhandles through the rest of
today. Further thunderstorms needs only a forcing mechanism to get
them started. Such a mechanism in the form of a small scale
weather system can pass across the northern and eastern panhandles
this evening into the early overnight hours. This is leading to a
low to medium chance for thunderstorms across mainly the northern
panhandles. The environment will have degraded some with CAPE of
1000 to 2000 J/Kg with 20 to 30 kt of shear. This will allow for
a low chance for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
large hail as the main threats. This round of storms will likely
cease once the weather system departs later Tuesday morning. This
will leave the rest of Tuesday morning with another low level
cloud deck that will lift and scatter out by the afternoon. This
will then allow for heating across the panhandles that will build
up the instability. Still there is a lack of forcing mechanism so
the chances for any thunderstorms through the afternoon will be
low. It wont be until roughly the evening that forcing will arrive
in the form of a small weather system. This system will pass
mainly across the norther to eastern portions of the panhandles
leading to a low to medium chance for thunderstorms. Since the
passage of the system will be later in the day this round of
thunderstorms will likely persist through the overnight into
Wednesday morning. Thanks to the daytime heating the environment
these storms will form in will be very unstable and ripe. This
is seen with CAPE of 3000-5000 J/Kg with shear of 30 to 50 kt.
This will allow for powerful updrafts that can lead to severe
thunderstorms even if the chances for such storms are low. The
main threats will most likely be large hail and damaging winds,
although tornados cannot be ruled out. Further more increasing low
level moisture with the setup of the low level jet will allow for
the storms to produce torrential rainfall. This means there is at
least a low chance for flash flooding which can be made all the
worse since it would occur overnight.

Overall both today and Tuesday look to be repeat days of very
similar weather. Thunderstorms are most likely late during the
day through the overnight. Severe threat will be present for both
days so be sure to have a way to receive warning even during the
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The panhandles still has a high chance of staying between weather
system through much of the rest of the week. This will see a high
pressure weather system to the southwest to south and lower
pressure systems to the north.

Wednesday and Thursday the interaction between these system will
most likely lead to a northwest flow across the panhandles. This
will allow for smaller scale weather system to pass across the
region bringing rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms.

Friday and Saturday the high pressure has better chances than not
to flatten out as another large scale weather system develops in
the Pacific Northwest. This will create a more west to east flow
across the panhandles and limit the access of moisture. This in
turn makes it more likely than not for the rain showers and
thunderstorms trend downward for potential occurrence. Still this
setup has an increased chance to bring the low level thermal ridge
across the panhandle leading to much hotter temperatures come next
weekend.

There is already building confidence that next week can see an
uptick in the rain shower and thunderstorm chance due to the
increasing strength of the weather system over the Pacific
Northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A cold front is passing across much of the panhandles bringing
rain showers, thunderstorms, and low clouds. The thunderstorms are
most likely in the northern panhandles so they are reflected in
the KGUY TAF. The chances are less for KDHT and KAMA so the
thunderstorms are not currently reflected in those TAFs. There is
a low chance for the thunderstorms to become strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. These
thunderstorms will most likely cease by the mid morning hours.
However there will be another chance for further thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours. As for the low clouds they
will mainly cause MVFR conditions through the rest of the
overnight and into the morning hours of Monday. This bank of low
clouds will then lift and scatter going into the afternoon of
Monday.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98