487
FXUS64 KTSA 172334
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
534 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

 - Low to medium rain chances ahead of approaching front Wednesday
   night and Thursday morning; only light rain amounts expected.

 - Higher grassland fire weather conditions develop Thursday
   afternoon with gusty northwest winds behind the front.

 - Dry and mild conditions continue into the weekend. Much above
   normal temperatures likely by early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Low level winds fields will intensify overnight downstream of wave
moving across the northern Plains. This will occur in advance of
the associated cold front which will pass through the local
forecast area late tonight through Thursday morning. The increase
in moisture advection and axis of stronger upglide will allow
scattered light showers to develop mainly after midnight through
noon time Thursday ahead of the frontal passage. Any rainfall
amounts likely remain light.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1219 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Cold front clears western AR and SE OK by noon Thursday with skies
clearing and gusty winds developing. Drier post frontal air will
also allow humidity values to fall and the overlap of cured and
dry fuels will create a window of higher grassland fire spread
conditions. NE OK will experience a longer duration of the
heightened fire conditions but all E OK and NW AR will have at
least a time frame during the mid to late afternoon where any fire
starts could spread quickly. Winds will decrease quickly after
sunset.

A quick return flow of gusty southerly winds develops by Friday
afternoon and mild and dry weather will allow for another day of
higher grassland fire spread conditions. Warm weather conditions
into Saturday ahead of the next cold front which passes Saturday
afternoon and evening. This frontal passage is expected to remain
dry. Brief cool down on Sunday before much above normal
temperatures develop by early next week and likely continue into
late next week. Dry weather also likely continues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Widespread MVFR ceilings will persist for much of tonight into
early Thursday morning, with an area of IFR ceilings likely to
spread into southeast OK and parts of western AR over the next
few hours. Some light rain or drizzle is possible in these areas
overnight as well, with some enhancement of showers near a cold
front by early morning. Winds will increase through tonight form
the south ahead of an approaching disturbance, with strengthening
LLWS. Cold front will bring quickly improving flight conditions
Thursday but with northwest winds gusting 25-30 knots in many
areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  59  28  55 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   53  64  30  58 /  30  30   0   0
MLC   54  63  28  58 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   46  58  24  55 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   51  60  25  53 /  30  50   0   0
BYV   51  59  26  53 /  30  40   0   0
MKO   53  60  29  55 /  20  20   0   0
MIO   50  57  26  52 /  20  20   0   0
F10   52  60  29  56 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   55  63  32  57 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14