726 FXUS64 KOUN 121712 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 123 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 - Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms between today and Friday, mainly along and southeast of I-44. - Warming up into the weekend && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Precipitation coverage during the day on Wednesday was less than anticipated, owing in part to a weaker/further northeast progression of the cutoff low and lower-than-anticipated instability. With that said, regional radar mosaic shows multiple areas of convection with cooling cloud tops in central Texas. With the trough continuing to lift north, there`s good reason to believe CAM guidance as it brings that blob of moderate rain north-northeast into our southeast Oklahoma counties between about 5 am and 11 am this morning. Weak instability will continue with MLCAPE not exceeding 1,000 J/kg, but the bigger concern will be extremely moist tropospheric profiles (modeled PWAT values around 1.75 inches, well into the 95th percentile range for this time of year) and extremely weak tropospheric wind profiles (model soundings show tropsopheric-mean winds around 15 knots). This will encourage slow-moving, vociferous downpours. Overall, the risk for heavy rain looks to be relatively confined to the immediate downstream regions from the ongoing convection blob - roughly from Marietta toward Coalgate and points east. But in that area, it wouldn`t be surprising to see someone pick up 2 inches of rain this morning. Another area of showers is likely to develop in the western portions of the Green Country and wrap back westward toward north central Oklahoma. Overall rainfall totals do look to be a bit lighter here. Following this morning round of showers and storms, the upper low will begin to depart and precipitation chances will drop from the 60- 80 percent range in southeast Oklahoma to more like 20-40 percent through the rest of the day and tonight. High temperatures will remain on the cooler side near and east of I-35 where anvil debris and cooling from showers occurs. Out in western Oklahoma and western north Texas, sunshine will be more prevalent and highs will get into the mid-80s. Meister && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Guidance has continued to trend much slower and stronger with the upper-level low during the day tomorrow (almost exactly the opposite of what ended up happening on Wednesday, so take that with a grain of salt). Welcome to the season of low model predictability. Interestingly, that trend toward lower heights just east of our area may end up leading to a warmer day across much of our area - models now show just enough of a surface wave remaining in southern Missouri that it veers out surface winds along and west of I-35, with temperatures subsequently jumping well into the 90s in our downslope-prone areas. Given the soil moisture in the area, it`s not a surprise to see NBM showing an area of 100-103 heat indices in southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. WBGTR values look to stay out of the "extreme" category, so heat headlines don`t look like they`ll be necessary. With that said, it does look like a rather unpleasant introduction to summer. On the precipitation front, the short-term period continues to look low-predictability at best. There`s a chance that wraparound showers hang on in the eastern corner of our area tomorrow morning with the cutoff low slowing down. As temperatures rise tomorrow afternoon, the NSSL WRF is a major outlier in depicting convection initiation and upscale growth into a couple of clusters within a highly unstable northwest flow regime. That said, a few other HREF members do try to develop at least some storms in that unstable airmass, so it bears watching. As we move into Saturday, things start to look a little more traditional for June with a subtropical ridge located over AZ/NM/Mexico and the southern Plains on the northwest flow periphery. That will let temperatures heat up even another degree or two out west and several degrees in the eastern zones, with a chance for storms to move into northwest Oklahoma Saturday night off of the high terrain. Meister && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Global guidance continues to depict a deamplification of the ridge on Sunday and Monday, with the eastern lobe of it reached the Llano Estacado. Interestingly enough, there does look like there will be 15-30 knots of 500 mb flow coming from the due north on the downstream periphery of the ridge. That would seem to argue for a pattern favoring High Plains development and storms reaching toward the western parts of our areas in the evening, particularly with the early-summer humid airmass still in place. As for temperatures themselves - if those 500 mb heights do in fact start pushing 591- 594 dam, mid-to-upper 90s seem like a pretty reasonable landing zone, with maybe some low 100s in the southwest OK/western north TX heat bullseye. Global models also continue to show a trough reaching its way into the Great Plains toward the middle of the week, though significant timing uncertainties remain. Regardless, this trough argues against the self-reinforcing "heat dome" that NBM seems to be leaning toward, so if I had to hedge my guesses on how NBM will verify with temperatures from next Wednesday onward, I`d lean toward it biasing high. Furthermore, if that trough is able to penetrate through the ridge and bring southwest or even westerly flow to the Southern Plains again, chances for organized thunderstorms would increase. Meister && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Varied flight category (between mainly VFR & MVFR) is forecast during the upcoming period. Areas of low stratus continue to thin/erode generally from west-to-east across the area early this afternoon. This will transition western terminals (KWWR/KCSM/KSPS/KLAW) to prevailing VFR conditions sooner than areas further east. Low stratus is expected to re-emerge early on Friday morning (after ~07-09 UTC). Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 67 89 71 91 / 20 20 10 10 Hobart OK 67 96 71 97 / 10 20 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 69 95 75 96 / 10 20 10 10 Gage OK 63 94 67 95 / 0 0 20 0 Ponca City OK 66 85 67 88 / 20 20 10 10 Durant OK 69 87 73 89 / 20 30 20 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...04 SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...09