267
FXUS64 KOUN 170631
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1231 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

 - Patchy to areas of fog/dense fog possible into the first half
   of Wednesday morning. Some areas could see freezing fog by mid-
   morning should temperatures there be at or below freezing.

 - Elevated fire danger risk across parts of our area from
   Thursday into Saturday.

 - Warming trend peaks on Saturday with above-average temperatures
   on every day through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

For Wednesday we have another potential for patchy to dense fog
developing by mid-morning.  South winds from yesterday had produced
a stronger gulf moisture surge across much of the eastern two-thirds
of Oklahoma with upper 30s to lower 40s surface dewpoints.  Moisture
advection expected to start back up early this morning as a weak
surface low settles in across our southern CWA.  With only some thin
Cirrus lingering overhead expecting stronger radiational cooling
down to the increasing dewpoints for fog developing.  Latest 00Z
Grand Ensemble runs have the higher probabilities (50% or greater)
for dense fog reducing visibilities at to below 1/4 mile across a
wide area of southwest into west-central & portions of central
Oklahoma.  This also includes adjacent western north Texas including
Wichita Falls proper and the Oklahoma City Metro.  Since confidence
is higher a Dense Fog Advisory will be in effect this morning
through 10 AM for the eastern two-thirds of our CWA. Temperatures
may drop just below freezing for a couple of hours in northcentral
Oklahoma, as any denser fog developing there could transition to
freezing fog perhaps between 6-8 AM.  Also, the aforementioned
surface low will be pushing a very weak cold front across our area
during the latter half of the morning with some drier air behind it
enhancing fog dissipation.

After visibilities improve not expecting the eastern two-thirds of
Oklahoma to see much sun with overcast to broken stratus overhead
coming up from northern Texas. Will go slightly cooler than NBM in
that area using the CONSMOS for the afternoon MaxT and warmer/closer
to NBM across our western CWA which will likely see more sun/heating
in the afternoon.  Still seeing warmer and above normal temperatures
this afternoon than yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Wednesday night our next large scale system/upper trough comes
through with the upper low tracking across the U.S. Northern Plains
through Upper Midwest Regions.  Prior to this systems arrival will
see a strong low-level jet over our area while warm advection may
develop some light scattered rain across southeast Oklahoma.  Latest
CAMs guidance along with NBM is suggesting this and NAM isentropes
showing strong moisture advection on the 290-300 K surfaces with the
lower to mid levels near saturated as per forecast soundings.
Obviously a very stable atmosphere so have 20% probability for light
rain or drizzle across our far southeast CWA for Wednesday evening.
This system will push a fairly robust dry cold front across our area
early Thursday morning with gusty north winds. Did go slightly
windier post-frontal from NBM default using the NBM 90th percentile
winds nudged 50%.  Although windy and drier air on Thursday behind
the front not much cooling with this milder Pacific-based air mass
although perhaps cooler across our western CWA than the previous
day. However will be much colder Thursday night/Friday morning with
strong radiational cooling as the surface high settles in under
clear night skies. Temperatures across most of our area on Thursday
night will drop to or just below freezing although wind chill values
should be negligible.  The post-frontal drier air on Thursday will
result in very low RH values across our west during the afternoon,
and combined with gusty north winds will Elevate the fire danger
risk across all of western Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas
during the afternoon hours.  Gusty south winds make a return on
Friday with the driest air along and south of I-40 where the
Elevated fire danger will be in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Our upper flow near zonal this weekend through Monday with mild
California Pacific-based air overhead.  Our warming trend expected
to peak on Saturday with near record breaking afternoon temperatures
about 20-25 degrees warmer than normal for mid to late December.
Unseasonably warm and gusty south winds will increase the fire
danger risk Saturday afternoon across southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas where the driest air will be in place.  A weather system
training along the Canadian/U.S. border will push a cold front
through our area late Saturday into Sunday.  A bit more robust
cooling behind this front for Sunday into Monday yet temperatures
will remain above normal.  Upper ridging starts building in Tuesday
restarting a strong warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Widespread dense fog is expected to develop early Wednesday
morning and continue through late morning or mid-day. Patchy
freezing fog is possible near KPNC for a few hours, also.
Improving visibilities along with MVFR ceilings are anticipated by
early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  46  57  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         43  60  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  47  63  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           38  56  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     44  57  27  57 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         54  64  33  60 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ006>008-
     011>013-017>020-022>031-035>042-044>047.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...01