543 FXUS64 KOUN 140350 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1050 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1045 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 - Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible much of this upcoming week. - Cooler on Monday and then a warming trend through end of the week. - Increasing shower/thunderstorm chances late Friday and Saturday with widespread rainfall possible. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 The initial wind shift has moved into northwestern Oklahoma, but this remains a modified downslope airmass and is still quite warm despite the northerly winds. The actual cold air is in western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas this afternoon. This reinforcing front will move into northwest Oklahoma late this evening. Gusty southwest winds south of the front will become lighter with the approach of the front as the pressure gradient relaxes near the front itself. Gusty northeast winds will develop overnight north of the front. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 The front bringing the cooler airmass will continue to move southeast Monday morning and exit the southeaster portion of the forecast area mid to late morning. This will be a noticeably cooler airmass for tomorrow with forecast highs generally 15 to 25 degrees below today`s highs in most areas. But the airmass is also dry so humidity values will fall to the 20-30 percent range Monday afternoon. This still brings some elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions where the wind remains a little stronger, primarily in southwest Oklahoma. The surface ridge moves across the area on Tuesday shifting winds to more southerly west of the ridge, but wind speeds will be relatively light. With the surface ridge over the area, it will be another seasonable day on Tuesday before the warmer days later in the week. A mid-level shortwave does move toward the central Plains Tuesday night, and there has been some signal (mainly in the GFS) of some QPF development in northern Oklahoma. The lower levels of the airmass remain dry, so this would be associated with some mid- level convection, if it occurs at all. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Mid-level shortwave troughing is prog`d to travel within the mean ridge and prompt the development of another lee-side trough by mid-week. Breezy south winds at 25 mph, gusts 30 to 40 mph, are forecast on Wednesday with highs in the 70`s and 80`s. A pattern shift will occur towards the end of the week as a mid- level trough deepens over the western CONUS and becomes closed over southern California. Meanwhile, the ridge shifts eastward and mid-level flow over our region shifts to the southwest. Temperatures will peak on Thursday before the next cold front arrives and stalls late Friday. Shower/thunderstorm chances return on Friday afternoon with increasing chances Friday night and Saturday. Widespread and appreciable rainfall appears possible next weekend. Thompson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 A weak frontal boundary is located along a line from roughly KCSM to KOKC. Winds are northeasterly north of the boundary, but a push of much stronger winds (20 knots with gusts to 30 knots) will occur later tonight as the front moves southward across the rest of the area. To the south of the front, low-level wind shear is likely over the next several hours. VFR skies continue. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 90 59 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 95 57 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 96 61 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 94 49 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 90 57 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 87 64 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...04