558
FXUS64 KOUN 180324
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
924 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 913 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

 - Elevated to near critical fire danger risk across parts of our
   area from Thursday into Saturday.

 - Warming trend peaks on Saturday with above-average temperatures
   on every day through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1213 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Patchy dense fog continues across portions of central and
southwestern Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas.
Visibilities with this activity is expected to increase over the
next few hours. Low stratus may linger into the afternoon, but
afternoon highs should have any issues getting into the upper 50s.

Southerly surface winds tonight will transport moisture northward,
ahead of a cold front that will move into the area starting late
tonight. That being said, there is some signal for fog (potentially
dense at times) to return to the area tonight into Thursday morning
across portions of the area. As of right now, confidence in coverage
and duration is uncertain at this time, so additional fog products
will not be issued with this package. There is a low chance for
showers to develop across far southeast Oklahoma this evening into
the overnight hours.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1213 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Cold front should make its way through the area by mid morning.
Winds behind the aforementioned frontal passage will be gusty
across much of the area -- with gusts up to 40 mph through the
day. Dry air will move in behind the front, fostering afternoon
RHs minimums into the single digits out west and into the teens
across the rest of the area. With these low RHs, combined with
gusty winds and dry fuels, elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions are expected Thursday afternoon.

Winds will shift from the north to the south Thursday night into
Friday, with breezy winds returning Friday. A dry return flow
pattern is favored Friday morning into the afternoon, so RHs will
again be in the upper teens to low 20s across much of the area.
Elevated fire weather concerns will be favored across at least the
western third of the area.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Our upper flow near zonal this weekend through Monday with mild
California Pacific-based air overhead.  Our warming trend expected
to peak on Saturday with near record breaking afternoon temperatures
about 20-25 degrees warmer than normal for mid to late December.
Unseasonably warm and gusty south winds will increase the fire
danger risk Saturday afternoon across southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas where the driest air will be in place.  A weather system
training along the Canadian/U.S. border will push a cold front
through our area late Saturday into Sunday.  A bit more robust
cooling behind this front for Sunday into Monday yet temperatures
will remain above normal.  Upper ridging starts building in Tuesday
restarting a strong warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 924 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

IFR conditions (both ceilings and visibilities) will persist at
KDUA through the overnight hours. KSWO will be on the edge of
stratus, so a TEMPO was included there. Elsewhere, generally VFR
conditions are expected.

Southerly winds will continue ahead of an approaching cold
front/northwesterly wind shift. A strengthening 50 to 55 knot low-
level jet will result in low-level wind shear (LLWS) at most
terminals. The cold front will move through all the terminals
tonight into tomorrow morning (which will clear any ongoing
visibility and ceiling restrictions). As the cold front moves
through, brief, northerly LLWS is possible. Northerly winds will
become gusty by mid morning. These winds will weaken toward late
afternoon.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  46  57  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         42  60  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  45  64  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           38  56  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     44  57  27  57 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         55  64  33  60 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...10