543
FXUS64 KOUN 140350
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1050 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1045 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
  much of this upcoming week.

- Cooler on Monday and then a warming trend through end of the
  week.

- Increasing shower/thunderstorm chances late Friday and Saturday
  with widespread rainfall possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

The initial wind shift has moved into northwestern Oklahoma, but
this remains a modified downslope airmass and is still quite warm
despite the northerly winds. The actual cold air is in western
Nebraska and northwestern Kansas this afternoon. This reinforcing
front will move into northwest Oklahoma late this evening.

Gusty southwest winds south of the front will become lighter with
the approach of the front as the pressure gradient relaxes near
the front itself. Gusty northeast winds will develop overnight
north of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

The front bringing the cooler airmass will continue to move
southeast Monday morning and exit the southeaster portion of the
forecast area mid to late morning. This will be a noticeably
cooler airmass for tomorrow with forecast highs generally 15 to 25
degrees below today`s highs in most areas. But the airmass is also
dry so humidity values will fall to the 20-30 percent range Monday
afternoon. This still brings some elevated to near-critical fire
weather conditions where the wind remains a little stronger,
primarily in southwest Oklahoma.

The surface ridge moves across the area on Tuesday shifting winds
to more southerly west of the ridge, but wind speeds will be
relatively light. With the surface ridge over the area, it will be
another seasonable day on Tuesday before the warmer days later in
the week.

A mid-level shortwave does move toward the central Plains Tuesday
night, and there has been some signal (mainly in the GFS) of some
QPF development in northern Oklahoma. The lower levels of the
airmass remain dry, so this would be associated with some mid-
level convection, if it occurs at all.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Mid-level shortwave troughing is prog`d to travel within the mean
ridge and prompt the development of another lee-side trough by
mid-week. Breezy south winds at 25 mph, gusts 30 to 40 mph, are
forecast on Wednesday with highs in the 70`s and 80`s.

A pattern shift will occur towards the end of the week as a mid-
level trough deepens over the western CONUS and becomes closed
over southern California. Meanwhile, the ridge shifts eastward and
mid-level flow over our region shifts to the southwest. Temperatures
will peak on Thursday before the next cold front arrives and stalls
late Friday. Shower/thunderstorm chances return on Friday afternoon
with increasing chances Friday night and Saturday. Widespread and
appreciable rainfall appears possible next weekend.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

A weak frontal boundary is located along a line from roughly KCSM
to KOKC. Winds are northeasterly north of the boundary, but a push
of much stronger winds (20 knots with gusts to 30 knots) will
occur later tonight as the front moves southward across the rest
of the area. To the south of the front, low-level wind shear is
likely over the next several hours. VFR skies continue.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  59  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         95  57  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  96  61  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           94  49  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     90  57  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         87  64  79  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...04