131 FXUS64 KOUN 090532 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 - Isolated strong storms are possible Wednesday afternoon. - Hot and humid conditions Thursday and Friday, with heat indices near 105 degrees possible in some areas. - A weekend cold front will bring our next best chance for widespread storms and a noticeable cooldown. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 While widespread activity is not anticipated, a few high-resolution CAMs (notably the ARW and NAM 3km) are starting to suggest the potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing during the peak heating hours this afternoon. This activity could be aided by any remnant outflow boundaries from Tuesday nights convection. As far as location, moisture and some low level convergence in western Oklahoma would make this the most likely area to see storms. For Wednesday night, most guidance shows diminishing convective potential after sunset. However, the NAM 3km remains an outlier, depicting another potential MCS diving south into the area overnight. Confidence in this scenario is low, but not zero, and will need to be monitored. For now, have maintained low-end PoPs overnight, mainly across northern Oklahoma. Day && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 The main story for the short term will be the building heat and humidity. An upper-level ridge will strengthen over the region, leading to widespread hot temperatures on Thursday. Highs are expected to climb into the mid-to-upper 90s for most, with some locations across western Oklahoma potentially reaching 100 degrees. When combined with ample low-level moisture, this will result in heat index values pushing 100 degrees across the board, with readings near 105 degrees in southeast Oklahoma and parts of north- central Oklahoma. Models are starting to show better agreement about the potential for an MCS diving toward northwest Oklahoma Thursday night, supported by a strengthening low level jet. SPC has included us in a marginal risk for this area. Friday will remain hot and humid ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorm chances will increase late Friday into Friday night as the front nears the area, though uncertainty remains on the exact timing and coverage of storms. Day && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 A lingering cold front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, though models diverge on its exact position. Abundant cloud cover and cooler air behind the front will lead to noticeably cooler temperatures across the region Saturday. Forecast confidence decreases early next week as the upper-level pattern becomes weak and ill-defined, making it challenging to time any specific disturbances. Will maintain slight chance PoPs for Monday and Tuesday pending better model agreement in subsequent forecast cycles. Temperatures are expected to remain at or just below seasonal normals. Day && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Showers and storms continue southwest through western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas. This activity is expected to gradually wane and move out. Wednesday afternoon will see low chances for storms, but not high enough for mention at any particular TAF site. Winds will remain light and southerly to southeasterly. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 93 72 95 75 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 98 72 100 75 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 96 74 98 76 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 96 70 99 72 / 0 0 0 30 Ponca City OK 93 72 95 74 / 10 10 0 10 Durant OK 92 73 95 76 / 20 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...14