688 FXUS64 KOUN 081121 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 621 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 131 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - Scattered storms today bring a risk of localized flooding and damaging winds. - Hot and humid conditions Thursday and Friday with heat indices near 105 deg F possible in the southeast. - Another chance for storms arrives with a front this weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 131 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The I-35 moisture plume continues, this time with some assistance from an upper-level shortwave moving through the region. This will drive an area of scattered showers and storms across central and south central Oklahoma through the afternoon and evening. The primary threats from these storms will be strong downburst winds and localized flooding from heavy downpours. A more challenging part of the forecast revolves around the potential for thunderstorms to develop in southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma and move south as a complex this evening and overnight. Confidence in this overnight scenario remains low, as development is highly conditional on the placement of outflow boundaries from today`s convection, and there is significant disagreement among high- resolution models. That said, the environment is characterized by strong instability (MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg), which will support robust updrafts capable of producing damaging winds in any storms that do develop. Day && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 131 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Lingering moisture on Wednesday will keep slight rain chances in place, mainly across southeastern areas. By Thursday, we`ll see some areas with temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 90s under mostly clear skies as a ridge begins to build, with heat index values potentially reaching 105 degrees in southeastern parts of the forecast area. With continued northwest flow, models suggest the development of another MCS possibly affecting northwest Oklahoma Thursday night. Day && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue into Friday, with high temperatures in the 90s and heat index values potentially reaching 105 degrees in the southeastern parts of the forecast area again. Forecast models show a cold front approaching the region Friday night. There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact timing and strength of this front, as it appears to give us only a glancing blow. Still, its passage will bring another round of thunderstorm chances, followed by a brief cooldown in temperatures this weekend that will be most noticeable across northern Oklahoma. Day && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Prevailing VFR category is expected at all terminals through the period. Corridors of lowered cigs/vis across northern Oklahoma may build towards KPNC/KSWO over the coming hours this morning, though confidence in such is low. Ongoing outflow across Kansas is also expected to offer a sharp (and gusty) northerly wind shift at these terminals during the ~13-15 UTC time frame. Otherwise, widely scattered diurnal convection will offer low probability potential for reduced category areawide this afternoon and evening. Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 92 70 91 72 / 10 20 0 0 Hobart OK 97 71 96 72 / 10 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 95 72 94 74 / 10 20 0 0 Gage OK 94 66 95 70 / 10 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 92 70 92 71 / 10 20 0 0 Durant OK 92 73 91 73 / 50 30 20 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...09