085
FXUS64 KOUN 260509
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1209 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

 - Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
   evening.

 - Dangerous heat continues into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Another day of scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms, primarily
along a boundary stretching from southwest to north central
Oklahoma. A similar environment to yesterday will yield a risk for
downburst winds and localized flooding. These storms will initially
be diurnally driven, but a modest low level jet may help sustain
convection into the overnight hours.

Heat is the other story that continues today with heat indices
rising into the 102 to 108 range across all but northwestern and
parts of western Oklahoma. A heat advisory remains in effect for
southern Oklahoma and north texas.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

The upper level ridge shifts west over our area this weekend,
suppressing rain chances and locking in the heat. CAMs suggest some
isolated diurnal showers will be possible on Saturday, but most
areas should remain dry.

Heat indices will continue in the 102 to 110 range over the weekend.
A heat advisory has been issued for Satuday across all but northwest
Oklahoma, and another heat advisory will likely be needed Sunday.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Deterministic models and ensemble members indicate the ridge may
strengthen further by early to middle part of next week across the
Southern Plains. Therefore, temperatures are forecast to slowly
rise through Wednesday with highs in the upper 90s and low 100s
deg F with limited/near zero chances for rain.

Toward the latter half of next week, there is some potential that
the ridge may retrograde far enough to the west to place the
Southern Plains into northwest or northerly flow aloft. Given this
potential, there is at least a low chance (20 to 30%) of showers
of storms late Wednesday through Friday. In addition, if the ridge
retrogrades far enough to the west, a cold front may even advance
to the south. However, forecast uncertainty on the location of the
ridge remains high. For example, probabilistic guidance indicates
a 10 to 15 deg F spread between the 10th and 90th percentile high
temperatures by Thursday and Friday.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Widely scattered showers and storms continue across parts of
northern and central Oklahoma early this morning. They don`t pose
much of a risk for reductions in visibility or ceilings, so VFR
conditions are expected to continue through daybreak. Scattered
cumulus clouds are expecting during daytime, with southerly winds
increasing to about 8-12 knots.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  76  96  78 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK        101  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 100  77  97  78 /   0   0  10   0
Gage OK           98  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     96  76  96  76 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         95  77  95  77 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...04