145 FXUS64 KTSA 191535 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 - A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this morning across parts of southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. - Dry and summer-like conditions are expected beginning this afternoon and continuing into next week. Afternoon heat index values near or above 100 degrees will occur in some places. && .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1033 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Any lingering showers will diminish in the next couple of hours with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day. This will result in most sunny conditions. Temperatures will be on the rise today, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Afternoon heat index values will approach or reach 100 degrees in some places. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 As an upper ridge aloft builds over the area and then camps out just to our east this weekend into next week, summer-like weather will take hold across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. We can expect high temperatures to reach the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s, each day, with minimal rain chances. Isolated diurnal convection may develop each day from about Tuesday on next week, mainly over the higher terrain areas, but coverage will remain low. Afternoon heat index values from 100 to 105 degrees will become more common, with Friday possibly seeing the highest heat index values. Breezy south winds will help somewhat in taking a bit of the edge off the heat, but this will be our first prolonged stretch of hot and humid weather this year. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Flight condition impacts, including IFR/LIFR, most likely during the first few hours of the forecast period, as patchy fog and an area of low clouds affect nern OK and nwrn AR sites, and a band of scattered showers and thunderstorms continues to drift southward across sern OK and west central AR. Expect the convection to wane and gradually move away from FSM next few hours. Fog and low clouds will also improve by 15z. VFR areawide after 15z. Some indications that scattered convection may redevelop this afternoon sern OK and west central AR, but potential of this is low enough to not include any mention at this time in the forecasts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 91 75 93 77 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 92 73 94 76 / 20 0 0 0 MLC 91 74 93 75 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 90 70 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 89 67 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 88 67 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 90 73 92 76 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 88 69 92 75 / 0 0 0 0 F10 90 73 92 75 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 91 74 92 75 / 20 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...69