145
FXUS64 KTSA 191535
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
1035 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   - A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this morning
     across parts of southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.

   - Dry and summer-like conditions are expected beginning this
     afternoon and continuing into next week. Afternoon heat
     index values near or above 100 degrees will occur in some
     places.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1033 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Any lingering showers will diminish in the next couple of hours
with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day. This
will result in most sunny conditions. Temperatures will be on the
rise today, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Afternoon heat index values will approach or reach 100 degrees in
some places.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

As an upper ridge aloft builds over the area and then camps out
just to our east this weekend into next week, summer-like weather
will take hold across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. We
can expect high temperatures to reach the low to mid 90s, with
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s, each day, with minimal rain
chances. Isolated diurnal convection may develop each day from
about Tuesday on next week, mainly over the higher terrain areas,
but coverage will remain low. Afternoon heat index values from 100
to 105 degrees will become more common, with Friday possibly seeing
the highest heat index values. Breezy south winds will help
somewhat in taking a bit of the edge off the heat, but this will
be our first prolonged stretch of hot and humid weather this year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Flight condition impacts, including IFR/LIFR, most likely during the
first few hours of the forecast period, as patchy fog and an area of
low clouds affect nern OK and nwrn AR sites, and a band of scattered
showers and thunderstorms continues to drift southward across sern
OK and west central AR. Expect the convection to wane and gradually
move away from FSM next few hours. Fog and low clouds will also
improve by 15z. VFR areawide after 15z. Some indications that
scattered convection may redevelop this afternoon sern OK and west
central AR, but potential of this is low enough to not include any
mention at this time in the forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  75  93  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   92  73  94  76 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   91  74  93  75 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   90  70  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   89  67  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   88  67  92  74 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   90  73  92  76 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   88  69  92  75 /   0   0   0   0
F10   90  73  92  75 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   91  74  92  75 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...69