249 FXUS64 KTSA 101510 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1010 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 - Warmer today with an isolated storm potential this afternoon. - Slow moving disturbance increases rain chances Wednesday with widespread showers and scattered storms Thursday and Friday. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Flooding may become a concern. - Rain chances continue into the weekend but coverage is forecast to decrease. Temps near mid June normals. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Convective debris from ongoing thunderstorms across N TX will continue to move over the region this morning and early afternoon. Will eventually see afternoon cu develop, with perhaps some isolated showers or thunderstorms by late afternoon or evening. The previous forecast and discussion remain valid, and will maintain slight chance PoPs areawide with highs in the upper 80s or lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Low level high pressure over the region this morning will exit to the east during the day today allowing for the return of south to southwesterly low level flow. Also today, a theta-e gradient currently oriented west to east across eastern Oklahoma, noted by the band of mid 60 dewpoints along/near Interstate 40, is expected to become more northwest to southeast over the CWA this afternoon. The combination of afternoon temps warming into the upper 80s/lower 90s and slightly higher moisture along the theta-e gradient will aid in the isolated potential for afternoon convection. Most locations will remain dry this afternoon, though will continue a slight chance PoP for a brief shower/storm. Any storm development could create gusty winds before weakening with the loss of daytime heating this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A broad area of low pressure currently over the Desert Southwest is progged to move out into the Southern Plains tonight and then slowly northeast across the region for the second half of the week. Latest model solutions differ on the speed of this disturbance with some data now trying to lift it northeast of the CWA by Saturday, while other data holds onto the system across the eastern half of the CWA through the weekend. For now will continue with NBM PoPs for the second half of the forecast period, with the potential of adjusting PoPs for the weekend. All the precip chances Wednesday through the weekend, will help to keep afternoon temps in the 80s for most locations and the coolest day is forecast to be Thursday. Return low level flow back into the region begins today, though the greater moisture advection is expected Wednesday afternoon into Friday with precipitable water values greater than 1.5" and in excess of 2" across parts of southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. As the area of low pressure approaches the region and feeds off of this moisture, shower and scattered thunderstorm chances increase from southwest to northeast during the day Wednesday over the CWA and remain forecast into the weekend. While the low pressure system moves over the region, the majority of the mid/upper level flow is forecast to be over the Central/Northern Plains. In response, weak flow aloft should help to limit severe potentials through the weekend. However, the weak flow could create slower storm motions, which combined with the ample amounts of moisture shown by nearly saturated model soundings, will allow for efficient rain producing showers/storms. Thus, the main impacts Wednesday into the weekend will be a heavy rain threat with increasing flood concerns once again. At this time, widespread multiple inches of rain are forecast across the CWA with Thursday through Friday night having the greatest heavy rain potential as the low pressure moves into/over the CWA. Current indications would suggest southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas would have the higher chance for the heavy rain threat, and if this signal continues, a flood watch may be needed. Precip chances begin to taper off from west to east for the weekend, though greater confidence is needed on the timing to end PoPs. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period. Isolated afternoon showers or storms may develop but any coverage is expected to remain too low to mention. Also patchy fog may develop late tonight but low confidence in placement and magnitude at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 91 67 88 68 / 20 0 20 20 FSM 92 67 89 69 / 20 0 10 20 MLC 90 67 85 68 / 20 0 30 40 BVO 91 65 87 66 / 20 0 10 20 FYV 88 63 87 66 / 20 0 10 10 BYV 87 63 87 67 / 20 0 10 10 MKO 91 67 86 68 / 20 0 20 30 MIO 88 64 86 66 / 20 0 10 10 F10 91 67 86 67 / 20 0 20 40 HHW 89 67 85 68 / 20 10 30 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...07