249
FXUS64 KTSA 101510
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1010 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
- Warmer today with an isolated storm potential this afternoon.
- Slow moving disturbance increases rain chances Wednesday with
widespread showers and scattered storms Thursday and Friday.
Locally heavy rainfall possible. Flooding may become a
concern.
- Rain chances continue into the weekend but coverage is
forecast to decrease. Temps near mid June normals.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
Convective debris from ongoing thunderstorms across N TX will
continue to move over the region this morning and early afternoon.
Will eventually see afternoon cu develop, with perhaps some
isolated showers or thunderstorms by late afternoon or evening.
The previous forecast and discussion remain valid, and will
maintain slight chance PoPs areawide with highs in the upper 80s
or lower 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
Low level high pressure over the region this morning will exit to
the east during the day today allowing for the return of south to
southwesterly low level flow. Also today, a theta-e gradient
currently oriented west to east across eastern Oklahoma, noted by
the band of mid 60 dewpoints along/near Interstate 40, is
expected to become more northwest to southeast over the CWA this
afternoon. The combination of afternoon temps warming into the
upper 80s/lower 90s and slightly higher moisture along the theta-e
gradient will aid in the isolated potential for afternoon
convection. Most locations will remain dry this afternoon, though
will continue a slight chance PoP for a brief shower/storm. Any
storm development could create gusty winds before weakening with
the loss of daytime heating this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
A broad area of low pressure currently over the Desert Southwest
is progged to move out into the Southern Plains tonight and then
slowly northeast across the region for the second half of the
week. Latest model solutions differ on the speed of this
disturbance with some data now trying to lift it northeast of the
CWA by Saturday, while other data holds onto the system across the
eastern half of the CWA through the weekend. For now will
continue with NBM PoPs for the second half of the forecast
period, with the potential of adjusting PoPs for the weekend. All
the precip chances Wednesday through the weekend, will help to
keep afternoon temps in the 80s for most locations and the coolest
day is forecast to be Thursday.
Return low level flow back into the region begins today, though
the greater moisture advection is expected Wednesday afternoon
into Friday with precipitable water values greater than 1.5" and
in excess of 2" across parts of southeast Oklahoma into western
Arkansas. As the area of low pressure approaches the region and
feeds off of this moisture, shower and scattered thunderstorm
chances increase from southwest to northeast during the day
Wednesday over the CWA and remain forecast into the weekend.
While the low pressure system moves over the region, the majority
of the mid/upper level flow is forecast to be over the
Central/Northern Plains. In response, weak flow aloft should help
to limit severe potentials through the weekend. However, the weak
flow could create slower storm motions, which combined with the
ample amounts of moisture shown by nearly saturated model
soundings, will allow for efficient rain producing
showers/storms. Thus, the main impacts Wednesday into the weekend
will be a heavy rain threat with increasing flood concerns once
again. At this time, widespread multiple inches of rain are
forecast across the CWA with Thursday through Friday night having
the greatest heavy rain potential as the low pressure moves
into/over the CWA. Current indications would suggest southeast
Oklahoma into western Arkansas would have the higher chance for
the heavy rain threat, and if this signal continues, a flood
watch may be needed. Precip chances begin to taper off from west
to east for the weekend, though greater confidence is needed on
the timing to end PoPs.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast
period. Isolated afternoon showers or storms may develop but
any coverage is expected to remain too low to mention. Also patchy
fog may develop late tonight but low confidence in placement and
magnitude at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 91 67 88 68 / 20 0 20 20
FSM 92 67 89 69 / 20 0 10 20
MLC 90 67 85 68 / 20 0 30 40
BVO 91 65 87 66 / 20 0 10 20
FYV 88 63 87 66 / 20 0 10 10
BYV 87 63 87 67 / 20 0 10 10
MKO 91 67 86 68 / 20 0 20 30
MIO 88 64 86 66 / 20 0 10 10
F10 91 67 86 67 / 20 0 20 40
HHW 89 67 85 68 / 20 10 30 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07