834 FXUS64 KOUN 070548 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - Low to moderate rain/thunderstorm chances continue through at least mid-week. - Hot and humid conditions later this week. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Most of the storms moving through central Oklahoma have dissipated. Meanwhile, a corridor of higher shear (30 kts effective bulk shear) and instability (SBCAPE of 2000 joules) along the western OK / TX border is allowing storms to persist southward a bit longer and farther there. Main hazard will be a low risk for downburst winds and localized flash flooding from slow moving storms. Another round of storms coming off the high plains is expected to approach northwest Oklahoma overnight toward dawn, though by this time it should be on a weakening trend. The instability axis runs along or just west of the OK / TX border, suggesting the complex will turn southward through our western counties. Again, damaging winds and localized flooding will be the main concerns if storms can maintain any strength. Widely scattered showers and storms are expected again along I-35 this afternoon, where PWATs are greater. Some CAMs also suggest a few isolated storms forming along another moisture axis running through northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon. Otherwise another partly cloud day with temperatures at or just below normal. Northwest flow will bring another chance for a decaying MCS to approach northwest Oklahoma overnight. Day && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A shortwave is expected to move through on Tuesday along with a surface boundary, enhancing rain chances across the area. We`ve got a marginal risk across most of our forecast area for severe storms with damaging winds as the primary hazard. As this wave pushes out some of the moisture, we should see a break from these widely scattered diurnal showers on Wednesday. Mostly clear skies will also allow us to warm up into the low to mid 90s. Day && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Northwest flow continues into late week with MCS chances resuming Thursday night. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s Thursday and Friday, including some heat indices near 105 in southeast parts of the forecast area. Current models show a cold front approaching Friday night (though the strength of this system is subject to some synoptic uncertainty). This will bring a brief cooldown and (you guessed it) more rain chances. Day && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 VFR/MVFR ceilings expected. Showers/storms in northern OK will continue to slowly move south but are expected to weaken/dissipate over the next several hours. Additional storms coming out of the High Plains may move into parts of NW OK early Monday morning. Scattered showers/storms will then be possible again tomorrow afternoon/evening in parts of central and southern OK. Winds will generally be from the S and SE except in some locations, primarily N and Central OK, where winds shift for a short period of time due to outflow from the storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 88 71 91 71 / 10 20 20 20 Hobart OK 93 71 94 71 / 10 20 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 90 72 94 73 / 10 10 20 20 Gage OK 91 69 93 67 / 20 40 20 10 Ponca City OK 90 71 90 69 / 10 30 30 20 Durant OK 91 74 92 74 / 30 10 40 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...25