399 FXUS64 KOUN 261112 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 612 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 601 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 - Dangerous heat continues into the middle of next week. - Generally dry forecast until the second half of next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible early this morning along a line from southwest to west central to north central Oklahoma. This area is within the terminus of the low- level jet (most evident at 925 mb). The expectation is this activity to gradually decrease in coverage this morning. Dangerous heat and humidity will be the weather story this afternoon with a 593 dam mid-level ridge expanding westward into the Southern Plains. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid 90s to low 100s deg F. The highest air temperatures will be across the west, where 850 mb temperatures associated with the low-level thermal ridge will be the highest (~25 to 26 deg C). Low-level moisture advection will result in dew points in the mid to upper 70s deg F across east central into southeast Oklahoma. These dew points will gradually decrease with westward extent with low to mid 60s deg F near the 100th meridian. Combined with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s deg F, heat indices will generally range from 100 to 110 deg F. The most dangerous heat indices are expected to be across southeast Oklahoma (where the highest dew points are forecast). A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of the area. The exception is northwest/west central Oklahoma, where dew points will be the lowest. With the strengthening mid-level ridge, convective coverage is expected to be markedly lower this afternoon. There is a low chance (20 to 30%) this afternoon into the early evening primarily across southeast Oklahoma where there will be a moist, and unstable air mass with no cap. Otherwise, most locations should remain dry. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Hot and humid weather continue on Sunday and Monday with summertime ridge remaining entrenched across the Southern Plains. There remains a low chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across southeast Oklahoma. Otherwise, the weather story will continue to be heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 deg F both days. On Sunday, the low-level thermal ridge does shift slightly to the northwest. Therefore, the highest temperatures are expected across northwest into north central Oklahoma. This low-level thermal ridge expands a bit to the east Monday, so high temperatures are forecast to increase Monday afternoon. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 The consensus among deterministic models and ensemble members is the ridge will continue to dominate the weather across Oklahoma and north Texas at least through the day Wednesday. Therefore, afternoon highs are forecast to slowly rise through Wednesday with highs in the upper 90s and low 100s deg F with limited/near zero chances for rain. By late Wednesday through the latter half of the week, the ridge may retrograde far enough to the west to place the Southern Plains into northwest or northerly flow aloft. This pattern may allow mesoscale convective complexes (MCSs) and effective cold fronts to impact parts of the Southern Plains as shortwaves rotate around the periphery of the ridge. As a result, there is chance of showers/storms beginning Wednesday night through Saturday. Forecast highs also trend lower toward the end of the week. Probabilistic guidance indicates a 40 to 70% chance of high temperatures below 90 deg F across the northern half of Oklahoma by next Saturday (August 2). Mahale && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Dry conditions have been established overnight. Can`t rule out a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, especially in the vicinity of DUA, but otherwise dry weather and VFR skies are expected in the next 24 hours. Winds will increase to about 10 knots from the south this afternoon, with most places dipping just below 10 knots overnight. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 96 76 95 78 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 100 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 101 77 98 77 / 0 0 10 0 Gage OK 97 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 95 76 96 77 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 96 77 95 77 / 20 10 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-023>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...04