017 FXUS64 KOUN 020346 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1046 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1043 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 - Shower and storm chances continue much of next week, with heavy rainfall and severe weather possible. - Near average temperatures expected over the next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 After the morning rains, skies have cleared across much of the area with light winds and mild temperatures this afternoon. Tonight will be quiet with winds coming back around to the south as surface pressure falls occur across the High Plains in advance of approaching shortwave. Increasing llj along with some waa may result in a shower or two across north Texas that may try to work north into western north Texas as well as southwest/southern Oklahoma toward morning. However much of the waa will be occurring in a rather dry layer, so it will need to overcome this before much in the way of precip can occur. The latest NBM inits has removed the low pops that were in the forecast for late tonight and will leave the forecast dry overnight. Not out of the question for some isolated pockets of fog across western Oklahoma toward morning. Should see at least some increase in high clouds toward morning in advance of shortwave across southwest. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 South winds will continue to increase across the Plains on Monday bringing increasing gulf moisture northward into the area. By afternoon, upper trough will be working out of the southern Rockies into the Plains. Convection is expected to develop across the High Plains of eastern Colorado southward into eastern New Mexico Monday afternoon. This initial convection will be rather high-based as much more substantial boundary layer moisture and associated instability will be well east of this area. However as the convection moves east across the panhandles it will encounter better moisture and will have higher chances of a severe risk, mainly hail and wind. These storms will then move into western Oklahoma and western north Texas Monday evening. Some indications are that this activity will gradually weaken as it moves toward central sections of Oklahoma during the late evening with the loss of daytime heating, less instability and lack of deep layer shear. Although still anticipate a good chance of showers and storms, but severe chances will decrease as we go through the night. Storms will likely continue into the day Tuesday as upper trough remains to our west with surface front moving into northwest Oklahoma in the morning with a moisture plume centered on the I44 corridor. This front will slide southeast and is expected to be just north and west of I-44 by late afternoon. By this time the upper trough will eject east across the area and more robust convection is expected to develop along and east of the surface front. However with convection expected through the day and only modest deep-layer shear should limit the severity of the storms to some degree. Storms Tuesday afternoon and evening will mainly pose a hail and wind risk, along with heavy rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 An active pattern remains through the week with a series of mid- level troughs developing across the west with shortwaves and/or the primary troughs ejecting towards the Plains at times, so occasional thunderstorms are expected throughout the week. The medium range models vary somewhat on the specific timing of the waves so the POPs are somewhat broad-brushed in the extended at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 VFR conditions tonight. Continue to think that a shallow moist layer will allow the development of at least scattered boundary- layer stratus early tomorrow. Added TEMPO groups with MVFR ceilings at some sites where this appears likeliest. After that, the other aviation concern will be a line of storms that looks to move in from the TX panhandle after 0Z tomorrow. Likeliest sites to see impacted visibilities/potential strong winds would be west central Oklahoma, with the line likely weakening as it moves toward I-35. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 85 65 87 71 / 30 0 10 40 Hobart OK 88 66 92 68 / 20 10 10 70 Wichita Falls TX 88 68 93 71 / 30 10 10 50 Gage OK 87 64 92 64 / 0 10 10 50 Ponca City OK 86 63 88 70 / 0 0 10 40 Durant OK 84 66 87 73 / 60 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...04